Thursday, September 08, 2016

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on Fed Rate Hike Fears, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Earnings Outlook Worries, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.34 +3.35%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 120.37 +.77%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.58 +.21%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 43.52 +4.99%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 -10.19%
  • Total Put/Call .98 +12.64%
  • NYSE Arms .75 -36.33
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.02 +.54%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 680.0 +1.34%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 85.05 +2.19%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 24.41 -.43%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 35.75 +.82%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 233.11 +.82%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 131.62 -.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.0 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 51.0 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -28.0 +4.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.34 -.10%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .34% unch.
  • Yield Curve 84.0 +4.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $58.14/Metric Tonne -.55%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.8 +.9 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -14.1 -.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.0 -2.5 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.54% +3.0 basis points
  • 32.6% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 2 meeting, 57.9% chance at Dec. 14 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -38 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +21 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -23 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech longs, index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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