Monday, September 26, 2016

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Surging European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Rising Political Uncertainty, Yen Strength, Financial/Drug Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.37 +16.92%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 117.98 -.31%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.53 +1.25%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.17 +10.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 47.0 -45.98%
  • Total Put/Call 1.12 +7.69%
  • NYSE Arms 1.01 -9.32
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 78.16 +1.72%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 683.0 +.79%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 99.46 +2.85%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 24.04 +1.82%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 32.25 +4.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 239.05 +2.80%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 132.03 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.75 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 68.5 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -37.25 -4.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.81 -.01%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .18% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 85.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $56.77/Metric Tonne -.04%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.40 -1.0 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -9.50 +9.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -13.8 +.9 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.56% -3.0 basis points
  • 50.5% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 14 meeting, 53.6% chance at Feb. 1 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -240 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -45 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -22 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

No comments: