Friday, September 09, 2016

Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on Fed Rate-Hike Fears, Rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Emerging Markets Currency Worries, Commodity/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.87 +26.86%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 120.23 -.24%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.06 +4.79%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.26 +15.92%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 71.0 -23.66%
  • Total Put/Call 1.05 +8.25%
  • NYSE Arms .66 -16.49
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.99 +4.42%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 661.0 -2.7%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.70 +4.24%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 24.64 +.76%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 37.66 +4.58%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 238.31 +2.38%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 131.63 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 49.25 -1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -28.50 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.57 -.97%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .34% unch.
  • Yield Curve 89.0 +5.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $57.78/Metric Tonne -.62%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.9 -.1 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -18.7 -4.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.6 -1.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.51% -3.0 basis points
  • 36.4% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 2 meeting, 60.3% chance at Dec. 14 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -170 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -73 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -63 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and added to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

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