Friday, September 16, 2016

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Fed Rate-Hike Fears, Rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Decline, Financial/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.18 -.74%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 119.33 -.46%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.98 +1.29%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.61 +3.9%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 81.0 -30.8%
  • Total Put/Call 1.03 +21.18%
  • NYSE Arms 1.47 +119.54
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 76.17 +2.13%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 664.0 -3.08%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 96.0 +4.17%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 25.51 +.79%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 38.55 +.57%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 260.57 +1.64%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 131.66 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.5 unch.
  • TED Spread 56.50 +3.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -33.50 -4.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.13 -.3%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .28% unch.
  • Yield Curve 92.50 +4.5 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $55.97/Metric Tonne unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.0 +6.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -21.70 -.7 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -14.7 -.4 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.52% +1.0 basis point
  • 28.7% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 2 meeting, 55.4% chance at Dec. 14 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -200 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +42 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +2 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

No comments: