Monday, September 26, 2016

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • Asian Stocks Fall as Investors Shun Risk Ahead of U.S. Debate. Asian stocks fell, tracking declines in European and U.S. stocks, as financial shares tumbled and the first U.S. presidential debate raised risks for global investors. MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.4 percent to 140.27 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo, retreating for the third day after closing at a 14-month high on Thursday. The Topix index slipped 1.1 percent as the yen traded at 100.34 per dollar. European stocks fell the most in two months as Deutsche Bank AG sank to a record low on speculation that Germany’s biggest bank will need to raise capital, dragging global financial shares lower. Investors also became more risk averse ahead of the first U.S. presidential debate Monday, with Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump tied in a close contest. A gauge of Asian finance companies fell 0.4 percent.
  • Iran Now Has the Edge in the Fight Over Oil Prices With Saudi Arabia. Suddenly the tables have been turned on Saudi Arabia. The biggest oil exporter has swapped its traditional role as price dove with regional foe Iran, for years OPEC price hawk. The government in Riyadh is now offering a deal -- including its first output cut in eight years -- to boost prices; Tehran is dragging its feet. At the center of the reversal is their contrasting thresholds for enduring economic pain. "Both countries are coming from different positions," said Jason Tuvey, Middle East economist at consulting firm Capital Economics. "Iran has been under sanctions until recently, so it’s getting an economic boost as investment returns and oil output rises. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is facing steep fiscal cuts."
  • Two 2017 Fed Voters Differ on Rate Hike After Latest Decision. Two Federal Reserve officials who will vote on monetary policy next year offered different views on whether to raise interest rates now, highlighting both sides of a debate that drew a rare three hawkish dissents from policy makers last week. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said he would have been comfortable with a rate hike this month, while Minneapolis Fed chief Neel Kashkari, speaking at a separate event, questioned whether the global economy can sustain such a move. Both presidents will rotate into voting slots on the Federal Open Market Committee for the first time in 2017. Their comments followed remarks by Richmond’s Jeffrey Lacker in an Fox News interview, in which he said that “I think we need to get on with it.”
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
  • Turning Point? Tightening polls give 1st Trump-Clinton debate added importance. (video) Donald Trump will enter his first official presidential debate Monday night with something few pundits would have granted him even a month ago: a respectable shot at winning the White House. The tightening of the polls in the run-up to this historic face-off between the Republican nominee and Democrat Hillary Clinton has injected added drama into the forum, already expected to draw record audiences thanks in no small part to the personalities on stage. With the race a virtual dead heat nationally and seemingly in flux in key battlegrounds, though, what happens on the Hofstra University stage Monday has the potential to decidedly tilt the race.
  • Presidential Debate: Live Blog.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Xinhua:
  • China Should End Economic Growth Targets, IMF Says. IMF China representative Alfred Schipke suggested the nation should eventually stop setting economic growth targets to allow room for policy adjustments.
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 122.5 +3.75 basis points. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 32.5 +1.5 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.77 -.05%
  • S&P 500 futures -.20%
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.18%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

  • (FDS)/1.70
  • (CTAS)/1.08
  • (NKE)/.56
Economic Releases
9:00 am EST
  • The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City Home Price Index MoM for July is estimated unch. versus a -.07% decline in June. 
9:45 am EST
  • The Preliminary Markit US Services PMI for September is estimated to rise to 51.2 versus 51.0 in August.
10:00 am EST
  • Consumer Confidence for September is estimated to fall to 99.0 versus 101.1 in August.
  • The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for September is estimated to rise to -2.0 versus -11.0 in August. 
Upcoming Splits 
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Fischer speaking, Fed's Evans speaking, OPEC meeting, weekly US retail sales reports, Australia Mid-Year Economic Outlook, $34B 5Y T-Note auction, Ladenburg Healthcare Conference, (KMX) analyst day, (JBL) investor meeting and the (WDAY) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

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