Friday, September 23, 2016

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Oil Weakness, Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Profit-Taking, Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.49 +3.91%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 118.58 +.52%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.36 +.10%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 45.03 +2.93%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 85.0 -3.41%
  • Total Put/Call 1.04 +8.33%
  • NYSE Arms 1.04 -26.25
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 76.55 +.65%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 674.0 -2.24%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 96.70 -.99%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 23.61 +.04%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 30.96 unch.
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 232.20 +2.51%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 131.99 +.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.50 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 69.5 +4.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -32.75 +1.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.91 -.29%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .17% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 86.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $56.79/Metric Tonne +.80%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.40 +1.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -19.30 +6.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -14.7 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.59% +3.0 basis points
  • 57.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 14 meeting, 59.7% chance at Feb. 1 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -134 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -39 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -17 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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