Thursday, September 29, 2016

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Eurozone Financial Contagion Fears, Rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Technical Selling, Biotech/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Slightly Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.64 +17.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 118.42 +.41%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.29 +1.68%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.19 +8.92%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 73.0 -9.88%
  • Total Put/Call 1.01 +9.78%
  • NYSE Arms .72 +10.99
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 77.74 +3.17%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 666.0 -1.69%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 102.0 +.49%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 24.45 -.81%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 32.44 +3.35%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 239.76 +3.06%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 132.21 +.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.0 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 58.0 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -49.5 -7.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.84 -.34%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .24% -3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 82.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $56.68/Metric Tonne +.35%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.40 +1.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 4.10 +14.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.4 -.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.56% -2.0 basis points
  • 52.7% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 14 meeting, 56.6% chance at Feb. 1 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -108 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating unch. open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -109 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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