Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Hospitals +6.6% 2) HMOs +3.1% 3) Retail +2.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DRYS, HAR, MENT, DGII, HIIQ, AYA, SCLN, ACM, SQ, CECE, PRI, BNFT, RGR, CSRA, BAC, THC, CSOD, ENVA, VC, CHS, SWHC, SCLN, KATE, XNCR, TPC, PLCE, ALXN, CRI, PTCT, CEQP, SXCP, RF, AXL, MTZ, SNI, SCMP, KSS, ECPG, TGNA, STL, WOR, BAC, GVA, AGX, JEC, SLG, NRE, SHLD, OMER, OMF, CVBF, WAIR, HUM, WING and BOOT

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) Z 2) MNST 3) CY 4) XRT 5) UUP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CHS 2) AKS 3) SQ 4) CNC 5) NRG

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +54.6% Above 100-Day Average
• 4 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 47.2% of Issues Advancing, 50.7% Declining
• 303 New 52-Week Highs, 235 New Lows
• 53.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.2%
• Vix 15.3 +7.8%
• Total Put/Call .88 -17.0%
• TRIN/Arms .58 -45.0%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China’s Economy Holds Ground as Housing Curbs Start to Bite. China’s economy held ground last month following new measures to cool property markets in almost two dozen big cities. Industrial production rose 6.1 percent from a year earlier in October, compared with a median estimate of 6.2 percent in a Bloomberg economist survey and 6.1 percent in September. Retail sales slowed to 10 percent growth last month, while fixed-asset investment increased 8.3 percent in the first ten months of the year. Any sign the world’s second-largest economy is losing steam may add to uncertainty in the global economy, which already faces the prospect that president-elect Donald Trump will impose punitive tariffs on Chinese imports when he takes office. But for now, it’s domestic drivers determining the economy’s momentum, with efforts to rein in property prices tapping the brakes on China’s consumer.
• It’s Not Just Deutsche Bank; German Banking Gloom in Four Charts. Emerging-Market Rout Extends to Gulf Stocks on Trump Policy Risk. The biggest emerging-market stock selloff in more than a year extended to the Gulf on concern U.S. President-Elect Donald Trump will change oil agreements and his nation’s relationships with Saudi Arabia and Iran. 
• Emerging Market Outlook: More Downside Ahead? (video)
• Korean President Faces Tough Week as Impeachment Risk Rises. Park Geun-hye faces the prospect of becoming the first South Korean president to be grilled by investigators while in office, as opposition lawmakers edge toward trying to impeach her over an influence-peddling scandal. A protest march on Saturday that drew hundreds of thousands -- the biggest rally in at least several decades -- has added to pressure on Park to step down over the furor. With 16 months left in her single 5-year term in power, and with no sign Park is readying to resign and lose her presidential immunity, opposition politicians are becoming more vocal about moving against her.
• Exports Drive Japan’s Economy to Unexpectedly Strong Growth. Japan’s economy expanded more than forecast in the three months through September, with a rebound in exports compensating for weak spending by people and companies. 
• Trump’s Rise May Save Banks Billions by Disrupting Global Rules. The election of Donald Trump may allow banks to dodge the full impact of global regulators’ post-2008 crisis crackdown. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is racing to complete a revamp of international capital standards by year-end. The U.S. has pushed for strict rules to protect against future market meltdowns, whereas Europe and Japan want to rein in proposals that could hit banks with billions in costs. Basel Committee members including the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are under enormous industry pressure to soften the rules.
• Brexit Threatens to Ignite European Skirmishes Over EU Budget. The European Union may get a preview of the impact Brexit will have on its bottom line when EU governments tackle the bloc’s budget this week. And it risks being unsettling. Battles over EU spending, which is funded mainly by national transfers, traditionally say more about the politics of Europe than about its economy. That’s because the European budget, while limited to 1 percent of EU gross domestic product, is increasingly viewed by member countries in an era of populist backlashes through the prism of net contributions and receipts.
• Bond Rout Deepens as Trump Bets Buoy Dollar; Japan Shares Climb. Japan’s Topix index climbed 1.4 percent, while benchmarks in Hong Kong, Indonesia and Singapore slid to their lowest levels in more than three months. Markets in India are closed for a holiday.
• Iran Pumps More Oil as Saudi Minister Calls for OPEC Output Cuts. Iran boosted oil output at three western fields faster than it expected as rival OPEC producer Saudi Arabia called for a collective output cut later this month to help rebalance the market. Output at the fields west of the Karoun River, near Iran’s border with Iraq, rose to about 250,000 barrels per day from 65,000 barrels in 2013, the Oil Ministry’s news service Shana reported Sunday, citing President Hassan Rouhani at a ceremony to formally open the project. Iran had expected to reach that output target by the end of the year, Mohsen Ghamsari, director for international affairs at the National Iranian Oil Co., saidin September. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said OPEC must agree to implement a proposed cut in crude production for OPEC countries, Saudi Press Agency reported Sunday. OPEC members will meet on Nov. 30 to discuss a plan to limit the group’s output to a range of 32.5 million to 33 million barrels a day, compared with 33.64 million in October. That target has become harder to reach as several members boosted output.
• Why the 2,826-Day-Old Bull Market Could Be a Headache for Trump. The election’s over, but for equity investors it’s the same old bull market, one the new president might prefer die a quick death. Donald Trump inherits a 2,826-day-old rally in U.S. stocks that has defied history, overcoming anemic economic growth and a 15-month earnings recession that pushed valuations to a seven-year high. Squeezing out even a couple more years would be a feat of unprecedented longevity, with August 2018 looming as the month the advance will exceed all that came before. Maybe it’ll keep going forever -- it’s already 32 months longer than the average advance since the 1930s. But if it doesn’t, a new president’s best hope often is that equity pain hits fast. Just ask Barack Obama and George W. Bush.
• Betting the Farm and Losing: Banks Seek Collateral as Debts Rise. Betting the farm on record crop, livestock and dairy prices has turned into a losing investment for an expanding share of America’s agricultural heartland. The level of debt to income is the highest in three decades, and growers are increasingly unable to make loan payments. Four years after record U.S. crop and farmland values boosted purchases of land and equipment, a global surplus has sent prices tumbling and farm income into the longest slump since 1977. The Federal Reserve says growers are borrowing more to pay bills, repayment rates are plunging, and the number of bankers requesting additional collateral is the highest in 25 years.

Wall Street Journal:

• Era of Low Interest Rates Hammers Millions of Pensions Around World. Central-bank moves pull down returns for government-run funds, making it difficult to meet mounting obligations to workers and retirees.
• EU Plans to Hold Firm on Global Issues in Wake of U.S. Election. But bloc’s foreign ministers also say they need to strengthen ties with Donald Trump’s transition team.
• Car Makers Gear Up for Electric Push. New crop of plug-in vehicles appearing in Los Angeles as cheap gasoline makes the sell tougher.
• Europe Struggles to Harden Security in Wake of Attacks. Counterterrorism efforts have been hamstrung by European Union’s complex decision-making procedures.
• Executive Power at the Supreme Court. In the age of Trump, liberals may rediscover checks and balances. Democrats who cheered President Obama’s use of executive authority to end run Congress should now hope the Supreme Court rules against his excesses. Without reinforced guardrails, here comes President-elect Donald Trump.

Fox News:

• Trump names Priebus chief of staff, Bannon senior counselor. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• Donald Trump's First Interview Since Winning The Election: Key Highlights And Full Transcript.
• Anti-Trump Protests: Proof Of Professional Activist Involvement. 
• Market Mayhem Resumes As Asia Opens. (graph)
• What Happens When 2-Term Presidencies End? (graph)
• Why President Trump Will Fumigate The Fed.
• "Markets Are Grasping At Trump's Answer To The New Normal".
• "They're Going To Be Gone" - Donald Trump Vows To Deport Millions Of 'Criminal' Undocumented Illegal Immigrants.
• Forget 'Hindenburg', Stocks Just Suffered The 'Akron' Omen. (graph)
• Turkey Warns Citizens About Travel To US Over "Social Tensions", Anti-Trump Protests.

Business Insider: 

• Goodbye, globalization.
• Mark Zuckerberg: We will rid site of fake news, but 'identifying the truth is complicated'.
• 'Mexico is waking up': The game has changed in North America.
• House GOP leader says Clinton investigation not on the agenda.

Reuters:

• Mexican peso up over one percent as Trump softens campaign pledges. Mexico's peso gained over 1 percent to around 20.64 pesos per dollar in Asian trading on Sunday, as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump appeared to soften some of his more incendiary campaign pledges that were seen hurting the Mexican economy. The peso MXN=D2, the world's worst-performing currency this year, has fallen to record lows after Trump's election upset last week on fears he may look to decrease trade and build a wall between the two countries, while also deporting about 11 million people living illegally in the United States. On Sunday, Trump backed away from his promise to erect a border wall, saying some areas could instead be "fencing," and added he would move to deport up to 3 million immigrants in the country illegally who have criminal records.
• Exclusive: Siemens nears deal to buy Mentor Graphics - sources. Siemens AG (SIEGn.DE), Europe's biggest industrial group, is nearing a deal to buy Mentor Graphics Corp (MENT.O), which makes software for designing semiconductors, for $4.5 billion to $4.6 billion in cash, according to people familiar with the matter. The deal could be announced as soon as Monday, according to the sources, who requested anonymity because the matter is private.

Telegraph:

• World's $150 trillion debt edifice shaken by Trump victory. The spectacular sell-off in the global bond and credit markets since the election of Donald Trump has left a trail of carnage among hedge funds and revived gnawing doubts about the fragility of the eurozone's financial system. Bank of America warned that there has been violent 'violent rotation' within the structure of the bond market over the last week, with powerful implications.

Handelsblatt:

• Eric Cantor Says GOP Will Brake Trump on Trade. Moelis & Co. and former Majority Leader Eric Cantor says in interview Republicans will be ready to check President Trump on raising debt and withdrawing from trade deals. "If he takes a sledgehammer to free trade, to NAFTA and others, that would be a real problem and you would see some pushback on the part of the Republicans and any free-trade Democrats that are left. But my sense is that you are not going to see that", Cantor said.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.5% to +1.0% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 117.75 +15.75 basis points.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 41.75 +2.75 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.07 -.03%.
• S&P 500 futures +.38%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.42%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

• (AAP)/1.72
• (PAAS)/.16
• (ZOES)/.05

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Kaplan speaking, Eurozone Industrial Production report, UBS Tech Conference and the Morgan Stanley Chemicals/Ag Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on an end to election uncertainty, technical buying, short-covering, yen weakness, falling European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst and US economic optimism. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• It’s All Bullish in the End as Stocks Post Best Week Since 2014. (video) A stretch that goes down as the best week for U.S. stocks in two years has been anything but easy money for the traders who had to navigate it. Three distinct narratives have driven trading, combining to lift the S&P 500 Index more than any time since 2014 and give the Dow Jones Industrial Average its best week in five years. Stocks rallied on Monday and Tuesday on speculation Hillary Clinton would win the presidency, then posted almost equally big gains Wednesday and Thursday as investors warmed to Donald Trump’s fiscal stimulus policies. The week ended on a down note for the S&P 500, as gains in banks and drug stocks were pared. In the middle was an hour-long election night plunge that would’ve lopped $1 trillion from the S&P 500 had it come during regular trading hours.
• Worst Week for Bonds Since 2013 Seen Overstating Trump Policies. After Treasuries plunged this week on expectations that President-elect Donald Trump will boost government spending and stoke inflation, some of the bond market’s biggest dealers and investors say the economic optimism may be short-lived. Benchmark 10-year yields surged by the most in three years after Trump’s shock election victory on investor views that the Republican would pursue stimulative fiscal policies. A bond-market gauge of inflation expectations rose to highest since July 2015.
• These Charts Show the Huge Stampede out of Emerging Markets. EM bond and equity funds see enormous outflows following the U.S. election.
• Dollar’s Trump-Inspired Surge Sets Off Intervention Across Asia. (video) The dollar had its best week since 2011, spurring central banks from India to Indonesia to step in to stabilize their currencies on concern that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will pursue policies that spur capital outflows from developing economies. The Indonesian rupiah and South Korean won were among the day’s worst performers against the greenback on speculation Trump’s policies will weaken exports from emerging nations. Trump has signaled he’ll adopt more protectionist trade policies, while introducing fiscal stimulus that has potential to hasten interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve.
• Trump Adviser Takes Aim at Conservatives’ Budgetary Restraint. Don’t expect President-elect Donald Trump to adhere consistently to traditional Republican economic policy, or even to positions Trump staked out during his election campaign. That’s the message in an opinion piece written in the Financial Times by Trump economic adviser Anthony Scaramucci that took a swipe at the budgetary discipline promoted for years by fiscal conservatives in the U.S. and Europe. It may point to a coming rift between the new executive branch and the Republican-controlled Congress. “Mr. Trump is a different type of leader not burdened by rigid ideology,” Scaramucci said. “He is not dogmatic about policy positions. Rather, he has set bold targets from which to begin negotiations.” “While easy-money monetary policies have exacerbated the income divide, central bankers handcuffed by political dysfunction have had little choice but to provide extraordinary accommodation,” he said. “Business people like Mr. Trump understand you can grow yourself out of excessive debt.” Scaramucci repeated Trump’s pledge to spend $1 trillion on infrastructure “financed by historically cheap debt and public-private partnerships,” and said the plan would lower long-term deficits. He sounded a softer note on trade than Trump had declared on the campaign trail, suggesting the president-elect is open to negotiations before slapping barriers on imports.

Wall Street Journal:

• Donald Trump Nearing Selection of Chief of Staff, Campaign Manger Says. Kellyanne Conway says announcement ‘imminent’; president-elect meets with Brexit proponent Nigel Farage.
• Reeling Democrats Now Face an Identity Crisis. Hillary Clinton’s loss has thrown into question who will be the next chairman of the Democratic National Committee.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (JEC), (ABBV), (TMO), (MRK), (LLY), (GILD), (AMGN), (PFE), (NKE), (PG), (AVD), (DFS), (CAT), (V), (MA) and (MLM).

Fox News:

• Voters target Electoral College members to switch their Trump ballots, elect Clinton. (video) Voters upset that Republican Donald Trump had been elected president -- or think that the presidency was unfairly taken from Democratic rival Hillary Clinton -- are scrambling for ways to change the results. Their major focus is trying to get members of the U.S. Electoral College to change their vote, arguing that Clinton should be the next president because 60.47 Americans voted for her, compared to 60 million for Trump. The college is part of the Constitution and is composed of 538 members, with each state and the District of Columbia having one member, or electorate, for every senator or House lawmaker. Trump won 290 of the so-called electoral votes, in the race to get a minimum 270.

Zero Hedge:

• ObamaTrade Is Dead: White House Abandons TPP As EU Halts Trade Talks After Trump Victory.
• Is Trump's $1 Trillion Privately Funded Infrastructure Plan Feasible?
• Glut Fears Spike As Europe Runs Out Of On-Land Oil Storage. (graph)
• Hillary Clinton Tells Donors It's Comey's Fault She Lost.
• Liberal Media Turns On Itself As NYT Promises To "Rededicate" Itself To "Honest" Reporting.
• Trump Victory Leads To Unprecedented Fund Flows; Trillions In Gains, Losses.
• The Clintons And Soros Launch America's Purple Revolution.
• Deutsche Warns Of Imminent "Domino Impact" For Stocks From Bond Carnage, Soaring Dollar.
• Trump Says May Keep Parts Of Obamacare.
• Weekend Reading: Markets Experience A "Trexit".
• Trump Triumph Sparks Dow's Best Week In 5 Years As Currencies Crash, Bonds Blow-Up, & Commodities Carnage. (graph)

Business Insider:

• The Democratic Party descends into 'civil war' after Clinton's loss.
• Junker: we must teach Trump how Europe works.
• Trump's win is great news for oil pipelines.
• Republicans set to renew the fight against Obamacare after Trump's stunning upset.
• Turkey continues to clamp down on human rights and children's organizations following July's attempted coup.
• Macy's(M) looks like it's spiraling into 'terminal decline'.

Financial Times:

• China warns Trump against abandoning climate change deal. Beijing pushes for progress to prevent global warming, saying world wants to co-operate.

The Telegraph:

• Trump’s tax cuts are bold - but spending must fall too.

Mehr News Agency: 

• Iran eyes inking new oil deals worth $130bn. Deputy oil minister has estimated that Iran will sign into 11 projects worth 130 billion dollars with international companies in the upstream oil sector. Iranian Deputy Oil Minister for International Affairs Amir Hossein Zamaninia said negotiations with several foreign firms are underway parallel to the talks with France’s Total over finalization of the $4.8bn contract for development of South Pars Phase 11.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 2,159.03 +3.67%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change