Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -1.6% 2) Gold & Silver -.9% 3) Tobacco -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• VNDA, QNST, CNA, VCRA, AVYA, ENS, ATVI, MCY, SNN, L, GRUB, OSTK, ALLK and MCY

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AET 2) UAA 3) FOSL 4) MDCO 5) K

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) USAT 2) L 3) CNA 4) VNDA 5) ROKU

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Road & Rail +1.3% 2) Alt Energy +1.3% 3) Oil Service +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NRE, NUVA, EA, LOVE, CAR, EOLS, PDD, TENB, QSR, TZOO, MANU, STAP, EEFT, MAT, MDSO, CLPS, UBNT, GSKY, XONE, NSC, STNG, ARWR, SPOT, NSP, WAGE, NGL, UNVR, AMSC, CMG, GTLS and HAIN

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) KSA 2) PTI 3) XOP 4) CL 5) EA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NUVA 2) NGL 3) CAR 4) NSP 5) EA

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -12.0% Below 100-Day Average
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 58.2% of Issues Advancing, 38.0% Declining
• 60 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 39.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.2%
• Vix 16.2 +3.2%
• Total Put/Call .84 -16.8%
• TRIN/Arms 1.28 +25.5%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:  

• Venezuela's Maduro Is Doomed? They Said That About Syria's Assad.  

• U.S.-China Engage on Trade Again in Beijing: Economy Week Ahead.

• Toshiba to Cut Operating Profit Forecast by Half, Nikkei Says. Stocks in Asia Set to Dip as China Traders Return. Stocks look set to start the week on a cautious note as Chinese markets reopen ahead of a potentially pivotal week for U.S.-China trade talks, with doubt on the possibility for progress creeping back into markets. Resurgent worries on global growth are driving bonds higher and threatening to dent this year’s rally in riskier assets, with equities dipping last week. Futures indicate a lower start for shares in Australia and Hong Kong, with Chinese exchanges reopening after a one-week holiday during which a gauge of the country’s Hong-Kong traded firms declined. Japan is shut for a holiday, so Treasuries won’t trade until the London open after yields edged down to 2.63 percent on 10-year notes last week. Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slid 0.1 percent in late Friday trading. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index futures retreated 0.4 percent.

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• China's Big Test, 22% Wage Increase, Slow Brexit Boats: Eco Day.

• Congressional Talks on Border Security Have Broken Down.  

• Equal Opportunity Recovery Weaning S&P 500 of Its Megacap Habit.  

• Duke Investigating Rape Allegation Made by Meredith Watson.

• Jeff Bezos Letters Weren't Extortion, David Pecker's Lawyer Says.

Wall Street Journal:

• Market Indicators Turn Bullish After Flashing Red.

• If It Innovates, Tax It, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Suggests.

• Prepare to Pay More for Diapers, Clorox and Cat Litter.

• A Tale of Two Steel Firms and Their Diverging Paths Under Trump’s Tariffs.

• The 2018 Comeback That Wasn’t for Stock Pickers.

• Programs Promising Free College Take Off.

• Border-Security Funding Talks Stall as Shutdown Looms.

• The Democrats’ Identity Meltdown.

Fox News:

• Parkland school shooting spurs states to pass seizure laws, confiscate firearms at greater rates.

• KIMBERLEY STRASSEL: A show-stealing Dem is the GOP's secret weapon in 2020.

• AOC adviser forced into revision, admits Green New Deal includes those 'unwilling to work'.

• Brother of Bezos' girlfriend slams mogul's team in Enquirer controversy. 

• JUDGE JEANINE: Think socialism can't happen here? Look at the last 10 days.

CNBC:

• ‘We need Amazon,’ Gov Cuomo says after report that it might cancel New York HQ2 plans.

• The housing market is facing risks this year, but here’s why it’s not all bad news for buyers.

• As US, Russia and Saudi Arabia vie for oil dominance, the world needs to ‘buckle up’ in preparation.

• Tech stocks have moved from 'un-investable' to good bets, and that could send the Nasdaq up 10 percent this year: Investor Paul Meeks. 

Zero Hedge:

• The Japanese-German Alliance Against "America First" Might Backfire Badly.

• Dems Border Proposal "Making This Entire Country A Sanctuary" For Illegals.

• Morgan Stanley: "Earnings Revisions Have Been Some Of The Worst We’ve Ever Observed".

• Progressive Battle Cry: Tax The Rich! Tax The Rich! How's It Working Out? 

• MbS The Reformer? Saudi App Allows Men To Track, Stop Women From Running Away.

• "Progressive" Attacks On Capitalism Were Key To Hitler's Success.

• Another Big Reason Not To Buy A Chinese Smartphone.

• Chicago Mayor Proposes Paying 1,000 Residents $1,000 A Month "With No Strings Attached".

• Facebook(FB): The Government’s Propaganda Arm?

Business Insider:

• The 6 hottest video games in a surprisingly action-packed February.

• VR isn't just for gamers — here's how Audi, Lowe's and Macy's are using it to boost sales and employee training.

Telegraph:

• The eurozone is just one crisis away from a hell of its own.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 81.0 +.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 57.25 -.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.37 +.02%.

• FTSE 100 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.01%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (CNA)/.93

• (DO)/-.40

• (L)/.33

After the Close:

• (DNB)/3.62

• (VECO)/-.16

• (VIPS)/1.26

• (VNO)/1.14

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• CPI revisions.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, China/US mid level trade talks, China Foreign Direct Investments report, UK Industrial Production report, UK Trade Balance report, BIO Investor Conference, Credit Suissee Financial Services Forum and the (NSC) Analyst Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters. 
• Week Ahead by TheStreet.
• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as lower long-term rates, dovish FOMC commentary and China trade deal hopes offset European debt angst, oil weakness and global growth worries. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• ECB's Empty Chair Embarrassment Leaves Draghi in Pre-Brexit Bind.

• U.K. Recession Risk in Next Year Climbs to 30%, Economists Say.

• Bezos's Wild Days: Lurid Selfies, Blackmail, Amazon Drama in NYC.

• Virginia Governor Vows He Won't Resign, to Focus on Race Equity.

Wall Street Journal:

• Hedge Funds Bask in Puerto Rico Bond Deal.

• Elizabeth Warren’s Bigger Banks.

• Fortnite-Marshmello Mashup Showcases New Avenues for Games, Music.

• China’s Demographic Danger Grows as Births Fall Far Below Forecast.

• Second Woman Accuses Fairfax of Sexual Assault.

• The Internet, Divided Between the U.S. and China, Has Become a Battleground.

• Lawmakers Close In on Deal in Talks on Border Funding.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (MHK), (MDT), (CVS), (DGX), (CAH), (PTC) and (MYGN).

MarketWatch.com:

• Amazon should buy Netflix — and 9 other mergers we’d love to see.

• How a ‘Fed put’ could leave stock market on path for a ‘late-90s-style meltup’.

Fox News: 

• Pelosi recreates 'sarcastic' SOTU moment with Hollywood elites.

CNBC:

• Congress’ push to hobble the global oil cartel with ‘NOPEC’ may or may not get Trump’s backing.

• Cramer’s lightning round: I think you can buy some Home Depot and then wait.

• US-backed Syrian force to start ‘final battle’ against Islamic State enclave.

Zero Hedge:

• How Ocasio-Cortez's "Green New Deal" Almost Imploded On Its First Day.

• In Rare Interview, Ivanka Trump Says She's "Not Worried" About Mueller Indictments.

• Fairfax Given Until Monday To Resign Or Face Impeachment After Second Sex-Assault Claim.

• Another State Wants Every Gun Owner To Hand Over Their Social Media Accounts And Internet Search History.

• The Zombification Of America Accelerates - 45% Of Teens Are Online "Almost Constantly".

• Ocasio-Cortez Doubles Down On 'Free-Money For Lazy People' FAQ Debacle.

• The Real Problem With Elizabeth Warren's Wealth Tax.

• Greenwald Slams Bezos' Invasion Of Privacy Hypocrisy As Amazon Builds Sprawling Surveillance State For Everyone Else.

• Rich Saudi Students Vanishing Across US After Kingdom Makes Bail On Rape, Manslaughter Charges.

• Finland Abandons 'Helicopter Money' Experiment: No New Jobs Created.

• Forget Face ID: Smartphones Will Monitor How Workers Walk, Type And "Spend Their Free Time".

• 35 Mind-Blowing Facts About America That Previous Generations Never Would Have Believed.

• EU Warns Diplomats Of "No-Go" Zones In Brussels, Cites Influx Of Russian And Chinese Spies.

• Trump Campaign Knocks 'Deceitful Fraud' Elizabeth Warren As She Makes 2020 Bid Official. 

• "WTF Is Going On In Downtown LA?": Army War Drills Continue Across Los Angeles

• Meet The Rich Kids Of Venezuela.

• Trump Says "North Korea Will Become A Different Kind Of Rocket - An Economic One" If Talks Succeed.

• After Blowing Up His Hedge Fund, Whitney Tilson Is Starting A Financial Research Company.

• "A Devastating Loss" - NYC Real Estate Stunned After Amazon Threat To Leave.

• Late-Day Panic-Buying Keeps Stock Win Streak Alive, Bond Yields Tumble To 13-Mo Lows.

Business Insider:

• Arizona officials want to pass a symbolic measure that would declare porn a public health crisis.

• 67 cool and unique Valentine's Day gifts for her — for every budget.