Tuesday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:   

• U.S.-China Negotiations Are ‘Picking Up,’ USDA's Censky Says .

• Trump to Ramp Up Pressure on Maduro to Leave Venezuela.  

• Global Economy Stuck With Downside Risks in the Near Term.

• ECB Eyes Data as Slowdown Proves ‘Significant,’ Villeroy Says.

• China Unveils Plan to Tie Hong Kong, Macau Closer to Mainland.

• RBA On Alert as Falling Property, Weak Incomes Threaten Spending.

• Saudis Defend App That Lets Men to Give Women Permission to Travel. 

• Asian Stocks Mixed; Treasury Yields Edge Higher. Asian stocks traded mixed Tuesday with little direction after a muted session in Europe and a holiday in the U.S. The dollar steadied while Treasury yields edged higher. Shares in Japan were little changed and fell in Korea, while Australian equities posted modest gains. Global trade remained foremost in investors’ minds as the European Union vowed prompt retaliation if the U.S. imposes tariffs on imported vehicles, with trans-Atlantic trade tensions showing no signs of easing. Earlier, European shares edged higher. Oil advanced to trade close to its highest in almost three months. Japan’s Topix Index fell 0.1 percent at 9:15 a.m. in Tokyo. S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.2 percent. Kospi Index fell 0.8 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 0.2 percent to the highest in almost 19 weeks. S&P 500 futures were little changed.  

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.  

• China Rate Debate, Bundesbank Soothes, Singapore Splash: Eco Day.

• Oil Trades Near Three-Month High on Supply Curbs and Trade Talks.

• First Big Depression Advance Since Prozac Nears FDA Approval.

• Trump Considering Powell, Craft, Grenell, James for UN Job, Sources Say.

Wall Street Journal:   

• As China Talks Resume, Trump Seeks a Win on Trade.

• Brexit Rift Deepens as U.K. Labour Lawmakers Quit Party.

• Bad News Is Good News for Stocks Again.

• Negative Yields Mount Along With Europe’s Problems.

• Discounts on SUVs Are Getting Bigger as Dealer Inventories Rise.

• U.K. Lawmakers Rebuke Facebook in Call for Social-Media Regulation.

• FAA Probes Southwest Airlines Over Baggage Weight Discrepancies.

• California Prepares to Sue Trump Over Wall Emergency. 

MarketWatch.com:

• The junk bond market has good things to say about the stock market.

Fox News:

• Trump rips Sessions, accuses McCabe, Rosenstein of 'treasonous' plot. 

• 5 inconvenient truths about socialist pop culture icon Che Guevera.

CNBC:

• Seven UK lawmakers resign from Labour party citing ‘Brexit,’ ‘bullying’ and ‘anti-Semitism’.

• Why California’s new solar mandate could cost new homeowners up to an extra $10,000.

• EU says it will react swiftly if US hits it with car tariffs.

• Top Apple(AAPL) analyst Kuo outlines the new products he thinks Apple will launch this year 

• Asia has ‘mitigating factors’ to counter a global growth slowdown, says bank CEO.

Zero Hedge:    

• Motive Revealed In Smollett Case: Actor Concocted Hate Crime After Racist Letter Failed To Impress.

• Giant List Of MSM-Fueled Hate-Crime Hoaxes Meant To Frame Trump Supporters.

• Rabobank: China's Borrowing Was Insane: In January It Borrowed 5% Of GDP In One Month.

• Justin Trudeau's Government In Turmoil After Top Aide Resigns Over Corruption Allegations.

• India Weighs Military Strikes In Kashmir After Deadliest Terror Attack In 30 Years.

• Rediscovering America: A Presidents Day Quiz On U.S. Presidents.

• Trump Courts Latino Vote In Miami Speech: Venezuela's Move To Democracy Is "Irreversible".

• Kamala Harris' Father Slams Her "Pursuit Of Identity Politics" After Pot-Smoking Jamaicans Joke.

• China Car Sales Plunge Most In 7 Years Amid Global Auto Industry Meltdown.

• Trump Slams McCabe & Rosenstein Over "Treasonous", "Very Illegal" Plan To Secretly Record President.

• CNN Reporter Sparks Ethics Controversy After Kamala Harris "Fashion Shoot".

• Pelosi Quietly Deletes Tweet Slamming "Racist, Homophobic" Attack On Jussie Smollett.

• UK Labour Party Suffers Biggest Split In 38 Years Over Corbyn Anti-Semitisim, Brexit Bungle.

• Trade Hope Rally Fizzles In Europe After China Soars To Four Month High.

• German Regulator Bans Short-Selling In Wirecard Shares, Citing "Contagion" Risks.

• Bill Gates: Best Option For Soaking The Rich Would Be Hiking Capital Gains Tax.

• Do You Believe In The Deep State Now?

• Chinese Data Leak Reveals Millions Of People Actively Tracked By Surveillance Network.

Business Insider:

• Mark Zuckerberg roasted by group of lawmakers, who accuse Facebook's CEO of spectacular leadership failure. 

• The future of artificial intelligence in retail.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.0 -2.0 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 53.0 -1.0 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.95 -.04%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.13%.

• S&P 500 futures -.04%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.15%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (AAP)/1.13

• (AAWW)/2.92

• (EXPD)/.85

• (FDP)/.12

• (GPC)/1.32

• (MDT)/1.24

• (SAGE)/-2.92

• (TEX)/.47

• (RIG)/-.24

• (WMT)/1.33

After the Close:

• (CRMT)/.99

• (CXO)/1.12

• (HLF)/.60

• (LZB)/.55

• (TXRH)/.41

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for Feb. is estimated to rise to 59.0 versus 58.0 in Jan.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China mid-level trades talks, German ZEW Index, Japan trade data report and the (JEC) investor day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:  

• Central Bankers Take to Stage as Dovish Outlooks Spread.

• ECB Eyes Data as Slowdown Proves ‘Significant,’ Villeroy Says.

• Hong Kong's Growth Halved in Fourth Quarter as Trade War Hit.

• Asia Stocks Set to Climb as Trade Optimism Grows. Asian stocks looked set to rise on Monday following a strong U.S. session amid optimistic signs on the economy and trade discussions. Australian shares edged higher and futures rose late Friday in Japan, Hong Kong and China after the S&P 500 climbed to a 10-week high. Reports that the U.S. and China had reached consensus in principle on the main topics in their trade negotiations helped boost risk appetite, ahead of talks that resume in Washington this week. The dollar slipped and oil pushed higher. U.S. markets are closed Monday due to a holiday. Futures on the S&P 500 added 0.1 percent. The S&P 500 Index increased 1.1 percent Friday. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.5 percent in Singapore. Hang Seng futures advanced 0.9 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index added 0.2 percent.

• Lindsey Graham Says Talk About Removing Trump Will Be Probed in Hearing .

• U.S. Student Debt in 'Serious Delinquency' Tops $166 Billion.

Wall Street Journal:

• Investors Get Burned After Betting on Electric-Car Metals.

• New White House, Congress Spending Battles Loom.

• The Hot Trade in the Housing Market: Servicing Mortgages.

• The Unrealistic Economics of the Green New Deal.

• Amazon Fiasco Splits New York’s Left.

• $1,973 LEDs and the Green New Deal. 

• This Once-Scruffy Beach Town Is South Florida’s New Real Estate Hot Spot.

MarketWatch.com:

• A Jekyll-and-Hyde economy? Nah. Long expansion unlikely to morph into recession.

• Berkshire’s Charlie Munger has a very blunt response to those ‘driving rich people away’ as Amazon scraps HQ2.

Fox News:

• Elizabeth Warren confronted over heritage controversy at latest 2020 stop.

• Limbaugh: Spending bill was effort by some Republicans to sabotage president.

• Graham: McCabe, Rosenstein to be hauled before Senate over Trump talk.

CNBC:

• As Apple nears the launch of its video service, 2 big names could be missing from the line-up.

• Why California’s new solar mandate could cost new homeowners up to an extra $10,000.

Zero Hedge:

• Two Trump Cabinet Officials Were "Ready To Support" 25th Amendment 'Coup' As Rosenstein Tallied Votes.

• Spreading The Fake Smollett "MAGA Country" Hate Crime: A Mainstream Media Montage.

• Smollett Shuffles Attorneys, Hires Crisis Management Firm As Scandal Deepens.

• Meet Generation Z: The Newest Member Of The Workforce.

• A World Full Of Zombies: Global Revenue Growth Has Collapsed.

• Schiff-ting The Goal Posts: House Intel Chairman Claims Trump-Russia Collusion "Compelling" But Not Necessarily "Criminal".

• Trump To Europe: Take Back 800 ISIS Foreign Fighters Or We'll Be Forced To Release Them.

• Some Clear Thinking About Amazon's "Shocking" Tax Incentives.

• Weiner Goes Free: Stiff Sentence Turns Soft As Ex-Congressman Gets Early Release.

• In "Serious Blow" To US, Britain Concludes Huawei Is "Manageable Risk" To 5G Rollout.

• Nigerian Brothers In Smollett Investigation Paid $7,000 To Stage "MAGA Country" Attack: Report.

• Saudi Aramco Makes Existential Bet On Oil.

• NFL Paid Kaepernick $60 To $80 Million To Settle: Report.

• All US Citizens Ordered Out Of Haiti Amidst Mass Unrest And Chaos.

• Group Of 10 Elite Hedge Fund Managers Made $7.7 Billion In 2018.

• China Accounts For More Than 60% Of All New Credit Created Globally In The Past Ten Years.

• First US Military Planes Land Near Venezuela Border With Aid In Defiance Of Maduro.

The Telegraph: 

• Political turmoil and an unravelling budget: Why Spain is Europe's next powder keg.

Today's Headlnes

Bloomberg:

• Trump Gets Readout on China Trade Talks Progress From U.S. Team.

• Theresa May Makes Another Plea for Unity to Get Brexit Deal Through.

• BofA Says a ‘Real’ Trade Deal Could Vault S&P 500 to Record High.

• The Rise and Fall of Chavismo in Venezuela.    

• Scattered Yellow Vest Protests Against Macron, Anti-Semitism.

• Spain’s Vote, Brexit Blunder, Trump’s Business Woes: Weekend Reads.

• The Best-Paid Hedge Fund Managers Made $7.7 Billion in 2018.  

• Amazon's Pullout Is a Blow to New York City's Tech Momentum.

Wall Street Journal:  

• Trump’s Emergency Declaration Sets Up Likely Court Fight.

• Gas Shortages Give New York an Early Taste of the Green New Deal.

• Nasdaq Climbs in a New Bull Run.

• Payless to Close U.S. Stores as It Prepares for Another Bankruptcy.

• U.S. and China Inch Toward a Broad Trade Agreement.

• China’s Property Market, Once a Lifeline, Shows Growing Strains.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (IRM), (INXN), (COR), (EQIX), (RXN), (AOS), (RUN), (VEEV), (SIBN), (INSP) and (YEYI).

MarketWatch.com:

• Bitcoin holds above $3,500, but analyst warns of lower prices ahead.

• Ivan Martchev: The junk bond market has good things to say about the stock market.

Fox News:

• Gunman who killed 5 was being let go from job after 15 years, police chief says.

• ‘See for yourself’ how we treat our employees, AOC told.

CNBC:

• Trade talks with the US are ‘making a final sprint,’ Chinese state media claim.

• As Trump ponders auto tariffs, free-trade Republicans push back.

• All signs point to more money pouring into Chinese markets this year.

• A big change in accounting will put $3 trillion in liabilities on corporate balance sheets.

• The Fed could move markets this week when it tells us what it was thinking at the January meeting.

Zero Hedge:

• Charlie Munger Warns Of "Extreme" Monetary Policy, "Dangerous" Money Printing And "Ignorant" Liberals.

• Smollett "Assault" Story Unraveling: Nigerian Brothers May Have Been Paid To Perform "Attack".

• Nearly Three Years After Olympics, The Rio 2016 Organizing Committee's Debt Load Has Tripled.

• Chart Of The Day: European Earnings Are Unchanged Over The Past Ten Years.

• Nomi Prins: Get Used To "The Powell Put".

• Here Comes The Shanghai Accord 2.0: China Unleashes Gargantuan Credit Injection To Start 2019.

• French Schools Replace "Mother" And "Father" With "Parent 1" And "Parent 2".

• Trifecta Of Folly: Pritzker Admin's Pension Plan For Illinois Will Center On The Three Worst Ideas Available.

• Visualizing America's Crime Rate Perception Gap.

• IMF Discreetly Preps Massive Aid Package For "Day After" Maduro's Fall.

• Mueller Recommends 19 - 24 Years In Prison For Manafort.

• Foreign Investors Dump Record Amount Of Treasuries.

• Now That Trump Has Declared A National Emergency, Here Is What Happens Next.

• As Russia Collusion Narrative Collapses, The 'Resistance' Reaches New Depths Of Delusion.

• FOIA Docs Reveal Obama FBI Covered Up "Chart" Of Potential Hillary Clinton Crimes.

• California Nightmare: Over Half Of Golden State Residents Wish They Could Leave.

• "Goldilocks, My A$$" - Stocks Soar As Economic Data Crashes Most Since 2011.

Business Insider:

• Vaping among teens skyrocketed in the last year as cigarette use declined, new CDC study shows.

• Relatives of China's oppressed Muslim minority are getting blocked online by their own family members, who are terrified to even tell them how bad their lives are.

• Here's why Conservative MPs now believe Theresa May's Brexit deal will pass.

The Telegraph:

• Comment: A no-deal Brexit starts to lose its terror as the EU draws up survival plans.