Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +.8% Above 100-Day Average
• 2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 35.5% of Issues Advancing, 61.0% Declining
• 62 New 52-Week Highs, 6 New Lows
• 49.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 59.1%
• Vix 14.9 +6.3%
• Total Put/Call .95 +21.8%
• TRIN/Arms 1.03 -8.9%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.0 -1.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 51.75 -.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.16 -.11%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.05%.

• S&P 500 futures -.13%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.17%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (BG)/.22

• (DLPH)/.88

• (DPZ)/.88

• (HRL)/.44

• (NEM)/.26

• (PWR)/.90

• (RS)/1.76

• (SGMS)/.08

• (SFM)/.18

• (TK)/.05

• (TTC)/.50

• (WEN)/.15

After the Close:

• (BIDU)/1.82

• (BEAT)/.43

• (BYD)/.34

• (CZR)/-.11

• (DBX)/.08

• (FSLR)/.64

• (FLR)/.61

• (HPE)/.35

• (INTU)/.86

• (KHC)/.94

• (RMAX)/.49

• (ROKU)/.04

• (STMP)/2.90

• (TTD)/.79

• (OLED)/.32

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for Feb. is estimated to fall to 14.0 versus 17.0 in Jan.

• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 228K versus 239K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1743K versus 1773K prior.

• Durable Goods Orders for Dec. is estimated to rise +1.7% versus a +.7% gain in Nov.

• Durables Ex Transports for Dec. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.4% decline in Nov.

• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for Dec. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.6% decline in Nov.
  

9:45 am EST

• Markit US Manufacturing PMI for Feb. is estimated to fall to 54.8 versus 54.9 in Jan. 

• Markit US Services PMI for Feb. is estimated to rise to 54.3 versus 54.2 in January.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for Jan. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.1% decline in Dec.

• Existing Home Sales MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -6.4% decline in Dec.

11:00 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +2,630,080 barrels versus a +3,633,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -269,360 barrels versus a +408,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,404,360 barrels versus a +1,187,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.33% versus a -4.8% decline prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PMI report, Bloomberg Economic Expectations Index for Feb., weekly US retail sales reports, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (RGNX) analyst day and the (ITRI) business update could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on More Dovish FOMC Commentary, Technical Buying, Oil Gain, Commodity/Construction Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.44 -2.96%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.70 +.28%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.82 +.57%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.58 -1.72%

• ISE Sentiment Index 76.0 -18.28%
  

• Total Put/Call .77 -8.83%

• NYSE Arms 1.01 -11.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.14 -.57%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 539.0 -.57%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 79.69 -2.5%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 276.0 +7.75 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.93 -1.42%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 173.02 +1.12%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 157.70 -.05%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 11.25 -.75 basis point

• TED Spread 22.25 -4.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.50 -2.5 basis points.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.26 +.09%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.44% +2.0 basis points

• Yield Curve 15.25 +.5 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 85.38 USD/Metric Tonne +.59%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -18.0 +.3 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -72.70 +2.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.2 +1.0 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.89 +1.0 basis point
• 0.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 1st meeting, 0.0% chance at June 19th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +10 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +72 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +33 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/retail/industrial sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Software -.9% 2) Airlines -.9% 3) REITs -.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ICPT, WIX, KAR, IIN, FIVN, AGR, CVS, BHC, TTD, EVH, CXO, AJRD, INST, TRGP, HSIC, LUV and WWW

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AET 2) UNIT 3) IRM 4) TMUS 5) ZNGA

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) OMI 2) LC 3) UFCS 4) TREX 5) LUV

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.1% 2) Steel +2.0% 3) Construction +1.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GRMN, OSPN, LMAT, LNTH, NVTA, TAST, DVN, WIRE, TVTY, BDC, MGLN, AMRC, EVBG, MFGP, CRMT, AXNX, FUN, LZB, MLCO, CLW, MRTX, HST, HUYA, STNE, TECK, QUAD, NVTA, AXDX, MGLN, GVA and LSCC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CCI 2) DATA 3) NEE 4) IRM 5) HAL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GRMN 2) BDC 3) GVA 4) LZB 5) KNDI

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +.9% Above 100-Day Average
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 59.1% of Issues Advancing, 37.1% Declining
• 49 New 52-Week Highs, 5 New Lows
• 49.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 59.5%
• Vix 14.7 -.9%
• Total Put/Call .75 -10.7%
• TRIN/Arms .87 -23.7%