Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters. 

• Weekly Market Outlook by Yahoo. (video)

• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.

• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as China trade deal concerns, global growth fears and yen strength offset bargain-hunting, technical buying and oil gains. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• Trump Aligns Trade With U.S. Security.

• Huawei CEO Expects Slight Impact From U.S. Curbs, Nikkei Reports.

• Crude Scales Back Weekly Advance as China Downplays Trade Talks.

Wall Street Journal:  

• Meet the Fixers Pitting States Against Each Other to Win Tax Breaks for New Factories.

• Teen Romances Where Couple Never Meets Are Now Normal.

• Australia’s Conservatives Win Surprise Election Victory.

• Trump Moves to Ease Other Trade Tensions Amid China Impasse .

• OPEC Considers Two Scenarios to Adjust Oil Production.

• How to Teach Kids About AI.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (AMAT), (BWA), (SCHW), (REGN), (KSS), (M), (JWN) and (TPR).

• Had bearish commentary on (AAPL), (CSCO), (QCOM), (ETN) and (HON).

MarketWatch.com:

• Ohio State team doctor abused over 177 male students — and school leaders knew: report.

• Three biotechs are going public next week. Here’s what you should know about them.

• Bitcoin’s tumble ‘has caused a lot of technical damage’, says analyst.

Fox News:

• JIM BRESLO: Calif. homelessness so out of control, people are turning to boats.

CNBC:

• Three states just set new lows for unemployment — that could be good for Trump in 2020

• China faces possible hit to credit rating if the trade war isn’t resolved.

• Uber, Lyft and Pinterest prove that private investors are sucking up all the value.

• Short seller says Beyond Meat hype is ‘beyond stupid,’ places bet against the shares.

Zero Hedge:

• Crack Pipe, IDs, And Badge Found In Hunter Biden Rental Car.

• Five Years In Prison For Offending Someone Online...

• Single-Payer Healthcare Is The Worst Kind Of Universal Healthcare.

• Obama's Top FBI Lawyer Distances Himself From Steele Dossier As DOJ Investigation Looms.

• "Cultural Schizophrenia": US Media No Longer Reports Facts, But Appeals To Emotions.

• Brexit Party On Pace To Overtake Tories By Election Day.

• Candace Owens On Facebook "Hate Agents" Database; Gets 'Mistakenly' Banned For 'Racist Facts'.

• The Warren Way: College Admissions Scandal Mastermind Advised Students To Lie About Race.

• Trump To Dump Thousands Of Migrants In Broward, Palm Beach Counties.

• Trump Cancels $929 Million For California's High-Speed Rail Quagmire.

• "Treason!" - Barr Finds "Government Power Was Used To Spy On American Citizens.

• Non-Citizens Commit 42% Of Federal Crimes, Despite Being Only 7% Of US Population.

• Barr Poleaxes Pelosi In Friday Interview: 'Dems Trying To Discredit Me Ahead Of FBI Review'.

• Lawrence Jones: SAT 'Adversity Score' Is "Insulting," Implies "People Like Me" Can't Make It.

• Dow Suffers Worst Streak Since 2016 Despite Best Dip-Buying In A Decade.

Business Insider:  

• Google(GOOGL) is scanning your Gmail inbox to keep a detailed list of your purchases, and there's no easy way to erase it. 

• Australia's shock election results are drawing comparisons to Trump's 2016 win.

The Telegraph:

• Comment: China cannot 'weaponise' US bond sales without shooting itself in the head.

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,861.85 -.24%

 
























The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

 
Indices

• DJIA 25,776.45 -.59%

• NASDAQ 7,827.48 -.98%

• Russell 2000 1,540.92 -1.65%

• S&P 500 High Beta 41.66 -1.74%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 155.13 -1.98%

• Wilshire 5000 29,465.51 -.76%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,546.19 -.17%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,222.17 -.44%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 593.56 +.89%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,095.83 -.78%
  

• NYSE Technology 1,899.07 -1.03%

• Transports 10,496.28 -.78%

• Utilities 791.51 +1.71%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 75.85 -.93%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 40.43 -4.24%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,206.44 -.83%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 961.81 -.04%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 354,763 +.83%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 53 +302

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 56.0 +32.99%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 494,336 -5.68%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,133,539 -.52%

• Total Put/Call 1.11 -6.56%

• OEX Put/Call 1.17 +97.0%

• ISE Sentiment 79.0 +27.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.04 -11.65%

• Volatility(VIX) 15.27 -5.3%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 38.26 +2.09%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.36 -.47%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.11 +1.49%

• Smart Money Flow Index 15,324.53 +4.53%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.101 Trillion +.54%

• ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$10.171 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 29.8 -30.8%

• AAII % Bears 39.3 +69.5%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 180.99 +1.47%

• Crude Oil 62.75 +2.25%

• Reformulated Gasoline 204.20 -.96%

• Natural Gas 2.63 -.38%

• Heating Oil 209.64 -1.29%

• Gold 1,275.80 -.82%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 177.36 -.27%

• Copper 273.60 -1.46%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 293.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.01%

• China Iron Ore Spot 98.0 USD/Metric Tonne +5.76%

• Lumber 323.0 -9.05%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 849.83 +2.25%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.17% -41.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate .2% -60.0 basis points
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 25.0% unch.

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.2789 +8.86%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 297.93 +99.8%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 174.25 +.22%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -31.10 +16.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -14.60 +2.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -32.90 -13.6 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 90.5% chance of no change, 9.5% chance of 25 basis point cut on 6/19

• US Dollar Index 97.96 +.67%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,619.87 -.59%

• Bitcoin/USD 7,035.70 +13.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.68 -.67%

• Yield Curve 19.25 -.25 basis point
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.39% -7.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.826 Trillion -.72%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.10 -.03%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 160.0 -3.45%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 276.5 +3.75 basis points

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 49.46 +8.06%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 80.44 +1.93%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 69.42 +.24%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.76 +2.32%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 129.05 +.46%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 162.84 +.12%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.83% -4.0 basis points

• TED Spread 14.75 +1.5 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 6.75 -3.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.50 +.5 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 62.51 +2.51%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 523.0 +13.1%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 81.11 +2.22%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 206.45 +4.31%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.746 Trillion -1.94%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,090.90 +.90%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 225,000 +4,750

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.07% -3.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 415.70 -.57%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 59.9 +.1 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +5.40% -20.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.86/gallon -.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1032.0 +1.88%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 792.15 n/a

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 +14.3%

• Rail Freight Carloads 270,622 +1.54%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth unch.

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -1.6%

Leading Sectors

• Tobacco +2.3.

• Homebuilders +2.0%

• Utilities +1.5%

• Computer Hardware +1.2%

• Software +1.1%

Lagging Sectors

• Gaming -3.3% 

• Semis -4.1%

• Papers -5.9%

• Steel -7.4%

• Coal -8.0%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (6)

• CRAY, CYRX, WTTR, AMAT, SFLY and JACK

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (9)

• AOS, IIVI, QRVO, LITE, IPHI, DE, CMC, BE and EOLS

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change