Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Road & Rail +1.8% 2) Steel +1.3% 3) Gaming +.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BPTH, APRN, JBHT, SPAR, USLV, AVRO, FHN, HI, ERII, PAAS, FIVN, MLND, RBA, SUZ, ALV, KNX, PAYS, CMCO, CP, ROK, GS, PETS, USAK, HY, SUN, ROKU, PAYS, OSTK and WIFI

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) DISCA 2) KNX 3) FLR 4) MMM 5) SCHW

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SPAR 2) JBHT 3) MBWM 4) CP 5) SCHW

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -9.1% Below 100-Day Average
• 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 56.5% of Issues Advancing, 40.1% Declining
• 121 New 52-Week Highs, 39 New Lows
• 62.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 51.4%
• Vix 12.4 -2.5%
• Total Put/Call .85 -11.5%
• TRIN/Arms 1.10 -26.7%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Mnuchin Says Trade Call With Chinese Officials Likely This Week.

• Asian Stocks Trade Mixed; Treasuries Steady. Asian stocks were mixed in early Tuesday trading as investors looked to earnings and clues from policy makers for the next catalyst. Treasuries steadied. Japanese shares dipped as traders returned from a holiday, while indexes of South Korean and Australian equities edged up. The S&P 500 Index earlier ended flat at a record high as gains in tech and utilities offset losses in energy and financial companies. Citigroup Inc., the first giant U.S. bank to report results, was little changed. Oil fell below $60 a barrel. Futures on the S&P 500 were flat as of 9:03 a.m. in Tokyo. The underlying gauge rose less than 0.1% to 3,014.30 Monday. Japan’s Topix index slid 0.2%. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.2%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.1%. 

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• Oil Skids Below $60 as Barry Leaves Gulf, Chinese Economy Stalls.

• Biden Leads Close Contest in New Hampshire: Campaign Update. 

• Stock Investors Go ‘All-In' With $6 Billion Bet on S&P 500 ETFs.

Wall Street Journal:

• Electric Airplanes Start to Take Off.

• Democrats Smear Democrats.

• In Global Tech Battle, a Balky U.S. Ally Chooses China.

• China Growth Slows, Raising Pressure to Step Up Stimulus.

• Trump Plans Tighter Asylum Rules at Southern Border.

Fox News:

• Progressive Dems slam WH 'occupant' Trump, demand impeachment in heated news conference.

MarketWatch.com:

• Is the Fed on the verge of sparking a stock-market ‘melt-up’?

• Gary Smith: Bitcoin buyers are only fooling themselves — again.

CNBC:

• This transport stock holds the key to earnings season.

• Mnuchin: US has ‘very serious concerns’ that Facebook’s Libra could be misused by terrorists.

• These are the best places to launch a small business in America.

Zero Hedge:

• "This Won't End Well" - Lies, Damned Lies, & China's Retail Sales Data.

• China Arrests Another Canadian National As Feud With Ottawa Intensifies.

• FBI To Ramp Up Social Media Surveillance.

• Global Debt Hits $246 Trillion, 320% Of GDP, As Developing Debt Hits All Time HIgh.

• Trump Rage-Tweets At "Radical Left Democrats" - "If You're Not Happy Here, Leave!".

• AOC And 'Snot-Nosed Punk' Chief-Of-Staff Alienating Moderate Democrats, Helping Trump: Rahm Emanuel.

• Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion Bid As Small Cap Lag Reaches 10-Year High.

Business Insider: 

• Hedge fund giant Glenn Dubin and his wife Eva told Jeffrey Epstein's probation officer they were '100% comfortable' with the sex offender around their kids. New documents show the extent of the billionaire couple's relationship with Epstein.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.75 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 42.0 -.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  67.80 -.01%.

• S&P 500 futures +.07%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.10%.

Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (CP)/4.15

• (SCHW)/.65

• (CBSH)/.94

• (DPZ)/2.03

• (GS)/5.03

• (JNJ)/2.43

• (JPM)/2.49

• (WFC)/1.16

After the Close:

• (CTAS)/1.93

• (CSX)/1.11

• (UAL)/4.09

Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST

• The Import Price Index MoM for June is estimated to fall -.6% versus a -.3% decline in May.

• The Export Price Index MoM for June is estimated to fall -.2% versus a -.2% decline in May.

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for June is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.5% gain in May.

• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for June is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.5% gain in May.

• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for June is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.5% gain in May.
  

9:15 am

• Industrial Production MoM for June is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.4% gain in May.

• Manufacturing Production for June is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in May. 

• Capacity Utilization for June is estimated at 78.1% versus 78.1% in May.
  

10:00 am EST

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for July is estimated at 64.0 versus 64.0 in June.

• Business Inventories for May is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.5% gain in April.
  

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for May.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, Eurozone Trade Balance report, weekly US retail sales reports, (FB)/(AMZN)/(GOOG)/(AAPL) testimonies to House Judiciary Committee and the (FB) cryptocurrency unit facing Senate hearing could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Profit-Taking, Oil Decline, Earnings Jitters, Energy/Financial Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.7 +2.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.16 -.13%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.96 -2.79%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 33.6 +4.0%

• ISE Sentiment Index 77.0 +5.5%
  

• Total Put/Call .98 +10.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.45 +49.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.27 -.22%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 605.0 +.12%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.38 -1.06%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 190.0 -14.25 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.25 -1.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 159.65 -1.48%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 165.11 +.07%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 3.25 +1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 19.0 +7.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.5 -4.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.79 +.14%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.13% -5.0 basis points

• Yield Curve 26.25 +3.5 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 118.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.33%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -44.40 +11.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -7.60 +1.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -31.20 +3.4 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.78 +3.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Sept. 18th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at October 30th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -90 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -27 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/biotech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.8%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -1.6% 2) Banks -1.0% 3) Energy -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CCJ, SYMC, CIR, DPZ, OSTK, MFGP, SOLY, PCG, AERI, YETI and GLDD

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) RLGY 2) SYMC 3) CPE 4) QEP 5) MDCO

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SYMC 2) EROS 3) SSTI 4) WRK 5) ENDP

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume