Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.

• Global Economy Week by Bloomberg. 

• The Week Ahead by Yahoo. (video)

• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.

• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as China trade deal optimism, fewer global growth concerns and seasonal strength offset profit-taking, technical selling and more shorting. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• World Economy Haunted by Risk Just Got a Double Shot in the Arm.  

• China Plans to Target Around 6% Growth in 2020, Reuters Reports.

• The Three-Year Crisis Cycle and a Case for a Reborn Bull Market.  

• Oil’s Biggest Bullish Boost Since 2016 Scores on Trade Armistice. 

• The Week When Some Big Economic Worries Began to Fade.

• Eni CEO Sees Oil Market Stabilizing on U.S.-China Trade Deal.  

• Impeachment Backlash: 31 Democrats at Risk After Trump Vote.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S., China Pause Trade War With Limited Deal.

• North America Trade Deal Is Likely Model for Future Pacts.

• A U.S.-China Trade Detente.

• Huge Disparity in Corporate Profits Hints at Something Amiss.

• DOJ Preparing Legal Action Against Live Nation for Ticketing Practices.

• Britain’s Red Alert for Democrats.

CNBC:

• ‘Historic’ phase one deal with China will be very good for global growth, Mnuchin says.

• Path is clear for a year-end rally with key hurdles like the trade war removed.

• Popular ‘Dogs of the Dow’ investing strategy fails in 2019.

• Here are the best analyst calls of the week on Wall Street including Dick’s and an advertising play.

• Three words that got Boris Johnson the UK election victory he craved.

• Here are the best-performing stocks of the decade.

MarketWatch.com:

• The hottest housing markets of 2020 are located far from the West and East coasts.

• ‘Back up the truck and buy, buy buy,’ because there is no risk, says MUFG economist.

• Top stock picks for 2020: The best of the biggest.  

• These are Wall Street’s top dividend stock picks for 2020.

Fox News:

• Biden confronted on Ukraine in San Antonio, but never answers protester’s question.

• Best-selling author is latest victim of Caribbean violence.

Zero Hedge:  

• IG Report On FBI Spying Exposes "Scandal Of Historic Magnitude" For US Media.

• Anti-Impeachment Democrat Jeff Van Drew Defects To GOP.

• "Bomb Cyclone" Looms Again As NorthEast Storm Intensifies Through Weekend.

• Corbyn's Massive Defeat Is Big Wakeup Call For Democrats.

• 8 Takeaways From The UK Election Result.

• Rudy Giuliani Can Barely Contain Himself Over His Ukraine Findings.

• NHS Over-Diagnosing Sex-Change Treatment For Children Over Fears Of Being Labeled "Transphobic".

• North Korea Conducts "Another Crucial Test" At Missile Site To 'Bolster Nuclear Deterrent'.  

• Pay Attention: Robots Are Killing The Millennial Worker.

• Impeachment Drama Doomed To Fail From Bad Casting.

• Baltimore Company Stuns Employees With $10 Million In Bonuses.

• Americans Are Lonely, Miserable, & Depressed: The Legacy Of A Society That Has Rejected Family, Faith, & Patriotism.

• What A Trip: Magic Mushrooms One Step Closer To Becoming Legal Depression Treatment.

• Impeachment Insanity: Democrat Asks Lawmakers To Imagine Girl Tied Up In Trump's Basement.

• The Booming US Furniture Industry Has Sparked A Desperate Scramble To Find Workers.

• San Francisco Spends Almost $30 Per Flush For Public Toilets.

• FISA Court Falls Under Congressional Scrutiny Following IG Report.

• "F**k Boris" - Antifa Protesters Clash With Police Outside Downing Street As Furious Leftists Revolt.

• Deal On, Risk Off.

Business Insider: 

• Uber's co-founder and former CEO Travis Kalanick sold off close to $166 million shares over the past three days.

• A secret fundraiser revealed Pete Buttigieg is being backed by some of Silicon Valley's wealthiest families.

The Telegraph: 

• City cheers Brexit certainty after crushing Conservative victory.

• Triumphant Boris means Brussels can no longer play the divide and rule game.

The Straits Times: 

• China paid a heavy price for trade deal with US: Chinese experts.

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 3,169.01 +.76%

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

 
Indices

• DJIA 28,127.75 +.42%

• NASDAQ 8,736.80 +.95%

• Russell 2000 1,635.09 +.24%

• S&P 500 High Beta 45.40 +2.66%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 155.36 -.10%

• Wilshire 5000 32,393.24 +.62%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,729.53 +.72%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,326.48 +.62%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 641.93 +.23%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,1120.49 +.45%
  

• NYSE Technology 2,085.61 +2.27%

• Transports 10,773.10 +.68%

• Utilities 856.97 +.18%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 77.94 +3.57%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 44.43 +2.86%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,266.04 +.32%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 961.23 -.1%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 387,290 +1.06%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 1,042 +1,004

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 42.9 +1.78%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 428,035 -9.11%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,163,757 -1.07%

• Total Put/Call 1.01 +12.5%

• OEX Put/Call .34 -12.82%

• ISE Sentiment 96.0 -23.0 points

• NYSE Arms 1.33 +61.64%

• Volatility(VIX) 13.09 -3.45%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 41.61 -.05%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 5.65 -2.08%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.69 -1.62%

• Smart Money Flow Index 15,092.93 +.74%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.619 Trillion +1.1%

• ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$3.255 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 37.6 +18.6%

• AAII % Bears 26.1 -10.6%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 183.80 +1.37%

• Crude Oil 60.07 +1.35%

• Reformulated Gasoline 166.23 +.7%

• Natural Gas 2.32 -2.47%

• Heating Oil 198.72 +1.46%

• Gold 1,482.0 +1.13%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 176.11 +3.26%

• Copper 278.20 +1.31%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 294.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.38%

• China Iron Ore Spot 93.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.24%

• Lumber 403.40 -1.70%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 882.91 +1.78%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.95% -1.0 basis point

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +2.2% -20.0 basis points
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 30.0% -9.1%

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.2755 -1.92%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 797.49 +297.31%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 176.52 +.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.5 -17.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -9.0 +14.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -22.60 +.4 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 100.0% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of rate cut on 1/29

• US Dollar Index 97.19 -.48%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,643.15 +.51%

• Bitcoin/USD 7,251.84 -2.68%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.22 +1.21%

• Yield Curve 22.0 unch.
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.82% -2.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.057 Trillion +.74%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 13.73 +.70%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 158.775 +.99%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 154.75 -9.0 basis points

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.90 -8.47%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 101.04 -14.5%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 47.18 -8.47%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 24.79 -2.98%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 53.99 -18.1%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 166.59 -.77%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.72% +1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 34.25 -3.0 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 2.75 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.75 -.5 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 48.09 -3.51%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 613.0 -5.88%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 53.16 -4.52%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 185.69 -7.37%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.972 Trillion -.06%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,139.4 +.3%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 214,000 -3,750

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.73% +5.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 532.10 +3.84%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 62.1 +.4 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +5.0% -30.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.59/gallon unch.

• Baltic Dry Index 1,388 -10.9%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 825.57 -1.25%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 60.0 +9.09%

• Rail Freight Carloads 268,956 +21.3%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +.7%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -.1%

Leading Sectors

• Gaming +4.8%

• Oil Service +4.6%

• Gold & Silver +4.6%

• Semis +4.4%

• Computer Hardware +3.6%

Lagging Sectors

• Foods -.8% 

• Healthcare Providers -1.0%

• Tobacco -1.6%

• Telecom -1.6%

• REITs -3.5%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (15)

• TGTX, SYNA, TTMI, ACA, BLUE, PSNL, PFNX, ADBE, LEVI, MAT, TTD, ENPH, RCKT, CNP and XPER

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (8)

• COTY, PLCE, OPI and NXGN

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change