Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 3,242.21 +1.11%

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

 
Indices

• DJIA 28,672.24 +1.07%

• NASDAQ 9,016.98 +1.48%

• Russell 2000 1,671.73 +.26%

• S&P 500 High Beta 46.83 +.84%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 158.89 +.02%

• Wilshire 5000 33,147.49 +1.08%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,780.82 +1.37%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,350.05 +.79%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 649.83 +.83%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,116.28 +.35%
  

• NYSE Technology 2,172.97 +1.58%

• Transports 10,948.01 +1.29%

• Utilities 875.17 +.26%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 78.58 -.53%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 44.94 +1.05%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,273.06 +.30%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 959.13 -.49%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 394,889 +.78%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 640 +10

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 32.3 unch.

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 536,377 +8.2%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,166,584 -2.8%

• Total Put/Call .84 +8.97%

• OEX Put/Call .34 -12.82%

• ISE Sentiment 92.0 +10.0 points

• NYSE Arms 1.55 +50.5%

• Volatility(VIX) 13.3 +6.2%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 42.60 +4.2%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 5.4 +3.0%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.5 +.31%

• Smart Money Flow Index 14,974.33 +.03%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.600 Trillion unch.

• ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$.609 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 41.9 -5.0%

• AAII % Bears 21.5 +5.2%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 187.18 +1.03%

• Crude Oil 61.72 +.72%

• Reformulated Gasoline 174.65 +2.54%

• Natural Gas 2.16 -5.2%

• Heating Oil 205.07 +.96%

• Gold 1,516.70 +2.29%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 177.24 +.33%

• Copper 282.65 +.04%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 295.0 USD/Metric Tonne unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 90.60 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%

• Lumber 409.0 -1.73%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 901.67 +.91%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.28% -6.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +2.4%+20.0 basis points
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 30.0% unch.

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .3005 -3.03%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 279.41 +40.1%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 176.39 -.14%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.3 -.7 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.9 +11.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -15.90 +.3 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 95.7% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of rate cut on 1/29

• US Dollar Index 96.96 -.46%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,657.0 +.21%

• Bitcoin/USD 7,198.96 -.23%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.01 +.94%

• Yield Curve 27.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.87% -5.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.127 Trillion +.7%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 14.86 -.67%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 162.06 -.02%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 163.0 -3.0 basis points

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 31.20 -.91%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 100.65 -2.48%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 44.19 unch.

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.86 -.5%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 55.77 -.85%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 167.34 +.13%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.74% -4.0 basis points

• TED Spread 40.5 +3.75 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 +1.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.75 +11.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 43.92 -2.85%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 546.0 +.86%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 52.19 -.5%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 174.79 -4.05%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  

• M1 Money Supply $4.028 Trillion +.63%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,131.10 +.2%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 228,000 +2,500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.74% +1.0 basis point

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 478.70 -5.3%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 62.3 +1.2 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +5.3% +50.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.56/gallon +.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,090 -14.9%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 854.4 +2.1%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 67.50 +3.85%

• Rail Freight Carloads 277,299 unch.

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +1.6%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value unch.

Leading Sectors

• Gold & Silver +6.6%

• Oil Service +2.7%

• Computer Hardware +2.2%

• Alt Energy +2.1%

• Social Media +2.0%

Lagging Sectors

• Utilities +.3% 

• Steel +.1%

• Insurance -.5%

• I-Banks -.5%

• Airlines -1.2%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (6)

• RAD, FLXN, SPCE, TXG, ATRA and AXE

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (2)

• DDOG and HIIQ

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Less European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Seasonal Strength, Technical Buying, Retail/Telecom Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.3 +5.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.06 +.63%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.50 +.31%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 42.40 -4.95%

• ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 +20
  

• Total Put/Call .84 +6.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.48 +92.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 44.04 -.37%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 546.0 -.33%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 52.18 -1.82%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 163.0 -4.25 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 53.13 +.43%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 174.79 -2.75%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 167.34 +.16%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 +1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 40.5 +1.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.75 +12.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.56 +.19%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.56% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve .27 -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 90.60 USD/Metric Tonne +.59%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.3 +1.0 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.90 +.4 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -15.9 +.8 basis point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.76 unch.
• 6.0% chance of Fed rate cut at March 18th meeting, 14.8% chance of cut at April 29th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -22 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +22 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -29 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/retail sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -1.4% 2) Alt Energy -1.1% 3) Steel -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PRVB, DDOG, RH and BBIO

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ADMS 2) UAA 3) ACB 4) SQM 5) RMHB

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SPPI 2) SBPH 3) QGEN 4) MMSI 5) NAV

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Social  Media +.7% 2) Retail +.7% 3) Telecom +.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RAD, FLXN, FBM, TXG, WCC, INMD, PGNY, KRG and AXE

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) XLB 2) XLK 3) XLP 4) TDOC 5) AMZN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PT 2) AQMS 3) FLXN 4) BW 5) AMRS

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -31.3% Below 100-Day Average
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 49.2% of Issues Advancing, 47.2% Declining
• 153 New 52-Week Highs, 2 New Lows
• 65.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 52.1%
• Vix 13.2 +4.3%
• Total Put/Call .88 +11.4%
• TRIN/Arms 1.39 +84.4%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 53.0 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 32.0 +.75 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  66.45 +.01%.
• FTSE 100 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.08%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.18%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases 

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK House Price Index could also impact trading today.

Market Hours

Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.