Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -1.7% 2) Biotech -1.5% 3) Healthcare Providers -.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PTLA, ICPT, ACAD, NBIX, BPMC, CONE, AXNX, IOVA, EXAS, AXGN, ABMD, FIVE and INGN

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FIVE 2) GPRO 3) JCP 4) AMLP 5) W

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FIVE 2) JCP 3) CLRO 4) EQT 5) SPOT

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +3.4% 2) Steel +2.5% 3) Video Gaming +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PRMW, CDLX, BYND, TODC, CDNA, DDD, NVTA, TERP, APPN, SDC, MNTA, TSLA, HXL, NSTG, SPCE, LVGO, ZS, RRGB, EHC, INMD, NEO, PHNY, TROX, CYRX, TTD, NUAN, RVNC, STAA, HRTX, ALB, XENT, DDOG, CRWD, BAX, VRNS, ANF, RARE, APLS, WWD, ZUO, FSCT, CCC and RH

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ABMD 2) EWT 3) UTX 4) ON 5) TDOC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) HXL 2) LULU 3) NVDA 4) ULTA 5) NFLX

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +2.4% Above 100-Day Average
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 57.6% of Issues Advancing, 37.8% Declining
• 129 New 52-Week Highs, 17 New Lows
• 64.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.8%
• Vix 12.8 +1.9%
• Total Put/Call .71 -17.4%
• TRIN/Arms 1.49 +15.5%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Fury at Air Crash Cover-Up Puts Iran’s Leaders Back on Defensive.

• Trump Trade Deal Raises Issue of Trusting China to Deliver.  

• Goldman(GS) Plans to Double China Headcount to 600 in Five Years.

• Most Gulf Equity Markets Gain as Iran Risk Eases: Inside EM.  

• Asian Stocks Look Set for Mixed Start to Week: Markets Wrap. Asian stocks looked set for a mixed session Monday after a decline in U.S. shares following Friday’s lackluster employment report. Australian shares slipped along with futures in South Korea, while contracts in Hong Kong pointed higher. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday. U.S. futures inched higher after the S&P 500 dropped from record levels Friday with the latest jobs report delivering mixed signals on the strength of the economy. The yen ticked lower. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 0.7% as of 8:12 a.m. in Tokyo. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index futures rose 0.4%. S&P 500 Index futures gained 0.1%. The benchmark fell 0.3% Friday.  

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.  

• Oil Comes Back to Haunt Asian Currencies as Volatility Increases.

• Trusting China, EM Easing, Philippine Volcano Eruption: Eco Day.

• Mnuchin Says Boeing Woes Could Lop a Half-Point from U.S. GDP.

• Citi’s Morse Sees Better Year for Commodities But Flags 7 Risks.

Wall Street Journal:

• Iran Faces Growing Criticism at Home, Abroad Over Downing of Plane.

• Bets on Global-Growth Rebound Power Stock Gains.

• Philadelphia’s Top Prosecutor Pursues ‘Social,’ Not Actual, Justice.

• America’s Conservative Plurality.

• Manufacturers Increase Perks to Get New Hires to Move.

• Bristol’s Merger With Celgene Is Already Paying Dividends, CEO Says.

• Soleimani’s Latin America Terror.

• ‘Cancel Culture’ Comes to Science.

• Inside Google’s Quest for Millions of Medical Records.

MarketWatch.com:

• Happy New Year! The U.S. economy has entered 2020 ‘with a little more zip’.

Fox News:

• Pelosi insists clinging to impeachment articles worked, says McConnell ‘cover-up’ exposed.

• McCarthy tells Maria what he thinks was behind Pelosi’s gambit.

• US troops in Baghdad see Iran general's threat differently from DC, GOP senator says.

CNBC:

• Trump tells Iranian protesters he stands with them and warns Tehran: ‘The world is watching’.

• ‘Our enemy is here’: Iran protesters demand leaders quit after military admits it shot down plane.

• Start-ups join Google, SpaceX and OneWeb to bring new technologies to space.

• Dell just put out a mammoth 43-inch monitor for traders — and we tried it for a week.

Zero Hedge:   

• What Are The Odds Of No Winner In The Democratic Primaries?

• Universal Basic Income: A Dream Come True For Despots.

• Carter Page Says FBI's SpyGate Is "Just The Tip Of The Iceberg", Hints At Future Legal Action.

• Facebook Glitch Reveals Greta Thunburg's Father Posting As Teenage Climate Activist.

• The Blue-State Exodus Gains Momentum.

• "Death To Liars!" Iran Swept By Wave Of Protests Demanding Ayatollah Quit Over Airplane Downing.

• Walmart Testing Robots For Fulfilling Grocery Orders. 

Business Insider:

• How the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow stretch of water where ships carry $1.2 billion of oil every day, is at the heart of spiraling tensions with Iran.

Seeking Alpha:

• It's 2013 All Over Again. Fast forward to January 2020 and we can see there are no signs of the type of excessive enthusiasm that always accompany the final stages of a blow-off rally. Quite the opposite, in fact, for the latest AAII survey showed that bullish sentiment among its members had fallen by 4% for the week ending January 8 to 33%. This is well below the long-term bullish average of 38%. And it’s certainly well under the types of readings we should be seeing right now if the market was truly vulnerable to a collapse.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 54.0 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 32.0 +1.25 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.56 +.01%.

• FTSE 100 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.12%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (SJR)/.34

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases
2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Statement for Dec. is estimated at $0.0B versus $208.8B in Nov.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK Trade Balance report, China Trade Balance report, UBS Midstream/MLP/Utilities Conference and the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly lower, weighed down by commodity and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
• Global Economy Week by Bloomberg. 
• The Week Ahead by Yahoo. (video)
• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as global growth optimism, earnings outlooks and diminished Mideast tensions offset oil weakness, technical selling and profit-taking. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Iran Admits Downing Jet in a Dramatic U-turn.

• Iran-U.S. Conflict to Shift Back to Proxies After Threat of War.  

• Tsai’s Record Victory Moves Taiwan Further From Xi’s Grasp.  

• China Will Reach 2019 Economic Growth Goal, NBS Head Says.  

• Officials Suggest China’s Pension System Can Take On More Risk.

• Sanders Leads Presidential Field in Poll of Iowa Democrats.  

• Threat of U.S.-Iran War Eases, For Now: Weekend Reads.  

• Hedge Fund PointState Stops Clients From Cashing Out in Full.  

• Puerto Rico Hit by Another Magnitude 6 Earthquake.   

• Nigeria Says It Complied With OPEC+ Output Cuts in December.

• Earnings Are Set to Drop Again. Investors Seem Fine With That.

• Hedge Funds That Bailed on Momentum Stocks Are Regretting It Now.

Wall Street Journal:

• Paging Dr. Google(GOOG): How the Tech Giant Is Laying Claim to Health Data.

• From Utah to Florida, States Boost Spending on New Roads.

• Anatomy of a Witch Hunt, Revisited.

• Minimum-Income Ideas Get Widest Airing in 50 Years.

• U.S., China Agree to New Dialogue to Pursue Reforms, Address Disputes.

CNBC:

• Boeing’s fired CEO Muilenburg walks away with more than $60 million.

• US and China agree to hold semiannual talks on reforms, WSJ says.

• Robotaxis will be available as soon as 2022, self-driving tech supplier Mobileye CEO says.

• Wall Street analysts say invest in these top stocks in 2020 including McDonald’s(MCD) & Facebook(FB).

• Trump administration warns Iraq could lose New York Fed account if US troops forced to leave: WSJ.

• Here are the six ETF themes that will drive gains in 2020, industry leaders say.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (LMT), (RTN), (TSM), (WING) and (NOC).

MarketWatch.com:

• Big-bank earnings preview: The Fed’s policies cut both ways.  

• There won’t be a recession this year: Barrons 2020 Roundtable.

Fox News:

• Iran thought Ukrainian plane was hostile target, 'unintentionally' shot it down.

• INGRAHAM EXCLUSIVE: Trump signals he’d seek to block impeachment testimony from Bolton, others.

• US strike aftermath pics reveal Soleimani's body still burning, missing limbs.

Zero Hedge:

• "Death To Liars!" Iran Swept By Wave Of Protests Demanding Ayatollah Quit Over Airplane Downing.

• In Stunning Reversal, Iran Admits Accidentally Shooting Down Ukrainian Passenger Jet.

• "I'd Like To See Them Call Me": How Trump Used An Encrypted Swiss Fax Machine To Defuse The Iran Crisis.

• Two US Soldiers Killed In Afghanistan After Roadside Blast.

• In Shocking Rebuke To Beijing, Taiwan's Pro-Independence President Wins Landslide Re-election.

• Segway Creates Self-Balancing Stroller For 'Too-Fat-To-Walk' Americans.

• New Earth-Like Planet Found In Habitable Zone Of Nearby Star.

• How's This Impeachment Farce Working For You, Nancy?

• Insurance For Oil Tankers Jumps Amid War Threat In Middle East.

• Sanctuary Cities: A Battle Over The Second Amendment Is Unfolding Across America.

• Skynet Does Housework: Roomba-Maker Says Household Robots With Arms And Legs Are Coming.

• The End Of The "Chinese Miracle".

• "There's Always A Bubble In The '20s": These Are The Top Bull And Bear Arguments.

• 'Useless Appendage' Huber Winds Down Clinton Foundation, Uranium One Investigation With No Charges.

• Tech Stocks Soar, Bonds Snore, As Oil Suffers Worst Week In Six Months.

Business Insider: 

• Iranians marched in fiery protests to demand Ayatollah Khamenei's resignation after officials shot down a commercial plane.