Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 3,500.51 +7.4%

 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.  

Indices

• DJIA 28,271.90 +6.88%

• NASDAQ 11,867.52 +9.06%

• Russell 2000 1,646.54 +7.4%

• S&P 500 High Beta 44.34 +5.56%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 182.83 +8.5%

• Wilshire 5000 35,988.60 +7.56%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,300.51 +9.5%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,210.65 +5.51%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 667.49 +4.19%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,305.93 +1.88%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,322.23 +10.1%

• Transports 11,594.73 +4.61%

• Utilities 882.22 +2.85%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 48.71 +6.1%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 47.77 +6.11%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,249.15 +1.55%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 896.96 +.34%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 423,709 +1.51%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 416 +409

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -44.9 +1.3%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 472,090 -3.7%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,011,744 +.15%

• Total Put/Call .83 -22.6%

• OEX Put/Call 1.47 +.54%

• ISE Sentiment 134.0 +5.0 points

• NYSE Arms .77 +11.4% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 571.0 +264.0 points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 25.4 -33.3%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.9 -35.8%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.26 -8.69%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.65 -8.27%

• Smart Money Flow Index 13,345.28 -.18%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.335 Trillion -.30%

• ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$15.562 Million

• AAII % Bulls 38.0 +7.6%

• AAII % Bears 31.5 -10.8%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 147.70 +2.11%

• Crude Oil 37.28 +4.3%

• Reformulated Gasoline 108.83 +5.11%

• Natural Gas 2.88 -14.6%

• Heating Oil 114.48 +5.2%

• Gold 1,953.80 +3.93%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 193.44 +3.44%

• Copper 315.55 +3.44%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 298.0 USD/Metric Tonne +3.11%

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.95 USD/Metric Tonne +2.39%

• Lumber 523.70 +5.37%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 940.88 +3.39%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.51% +1.26 percentage points
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 6.5% +1.2 percentage point
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 30.0% unch.

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index -3.1 +11.4%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 264.63 +50.1%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 161.74 +.57%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 118.0 -10.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 94.7 -8.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 54.0 -8.9 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 100.0% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of rate hike on 12/16

• US Dollar Index 92.21 -1.74%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,672.25 +1.03%

• Bitcoin/USD 15,479.10 +13.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.17 +.71%

• Yield Curve 66.5 -5.5 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield .82% -6.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.118 Trillion +.17%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.28 -1.5%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 350.96 -.06%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 126.0 -13.0 basis points
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 33.60 -15.5%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 189.18 -12.86%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 51.74 +4.05%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22.88 -8.7%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 90.21 -13.6%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 180.61 +.13%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.65% -6.0 basis points

• TED Spread 12.75 -.25 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.0 -.5 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 52.69 -19.9%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 516.0 -8.81%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 69.0 -18.6%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 189.91 -12.9%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 74.0 -4.0 basis points
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 68.31 +2.34%

• M1 Money Supply $5.581 Trillion +.63%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 951.0 -2.3%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 787,000 -.51%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 5.0% -70.0 basis points
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 2.78% -1.0 basis point

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 838,200 +3.76%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 47.5 +1.2 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.0% +10.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.12/gallon -.05/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,194.0 -6.94%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,110.70 +3.40%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 15.0 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 104.85 +7.05%

• Rail Freight Carloads 293,341 -.60%

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth +9.8%

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Value +5.4%
  

Leading Sectors

• Pot +32.8%

• Alt Energy +15.4%

• Healthcare Providers +12.7%

• Semis +12.4%

• Gambling +11.8%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Oil Service +3.7% 

• Utilities +2.8%

• Banks +2.7%

• Energy +2.2%

• Steel +1.9%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (47)

• TTD, LASR, APPN, PLTR, MD, REZI, NET, HUBS, ZG, SQ, Z, ALRM, LTHM, ROKU, AAXN, HALO, PACK, EVBG, YELP, CVS, IRWD, TPIC, MGNI, ATGE, UBER, WSC, HGEN, IAC, GOLF, ALB, CARG, TMUS, MTG, WK, PSNL, SPWR, TTWO, TSE, HASI, BFT and AVTR
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (10)

• CCOI, HBI, CSII, HEP, TCP, OKE, KPTI, ALLO, BLUE and SRG
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

 

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Stimulus Hopes, Dollar Weakness, Diminished Tax Hike Fears, Tech/Medical Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 25.3 -8.3%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 576.0 +214.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.17 +.22%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.7 +.76%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.96 -11.3%

• ISE Sentiment Index 148.0 +48.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .82 +3.8%

• NYSE Arms .77 -11.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.57 -2.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 798.55 -.27%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 69.0 -.53%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 126.0 -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.85 -1.34%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 189.86 -.03%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 180.61 +.13%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 unch.

• TED Spread 12.75 -1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.0 -1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  74.0 -1.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 68.25 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.97 +.37%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 61.75 +2.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.95 USD/Metric Tonne +2.43%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 118.0 -2.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 94.70 -2.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 54.0 -.5 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.65 -1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +89 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +64 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +18 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/consumer staple/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +32.1% Above 100-Day Average
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 49.0% of Issues Advancing, 47.9% Declining
• 97 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 60.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 541.0 +179.0 points
• Vix 26.3 -4.5%
• Total Put/Call .78 -1.3%
• TRIN/Arms .74 -14.9%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:          

• France Posts Record New Virus Cases as Minister Warns of ‘Violent’ Second Wave.  
• Denmark Covid-19 Virus Mutation Leads to New Restrictions.
• Australia on Edge as China’s Trade Deadline Arrives.  
• A $3 Trillion Investor Craze Implodes After Ant’s IPO Bust.
• Jump in Insolvencies Heralds Pandemic Hit to Canadian Households.  
• Stock Rally Stalls in Asia; Dollar Holds Slide: Markets Wrap.  
• Gold Heads for Biggest Weekly Gain Since July on Stimulus Hopes.
• Crude Falls With Market Awaiting Contested U.S. Election Outcome.
• U.S. Daily Cases Top 100,000; States Hit Records: Virus Update.  
• Cleaning Up LNG Becomes a Target of EU in Blow to U.S. Shippers.  
• House Democrats Trade Blame Over Surprise Losses in Election.  
• Here Are the Local Ballot Measures That Passed and Failed.  
• Electronic Arts Tumbles After Results, Outlook Come Up Short.

Wall Street Journal:

• Republicans Hold Off Democratic Bid to Flip State Legislatures.
• How the 2020 Electorate Voted.
• What Went Wrong With the Polls?
• Control of Senate Hinges on Georgia.
• Latino Voters Drifted From Democrats in Florida and Texas.
• U.S. Seizes $1 Billion of Bitcoin Tied to Silk Road Website.
• Hospitals in South and Midwest Showing Signs of Strain.
• Peloton, Pizza and Videogames Grow in Stay-at-Home World.

Fox News:

• Trump campaign announces federal lawsuit in Nevada, alleging 'illegal votes' being counted.
• Trump's Pennsylvania lead dwindles as legal fight heats up over Philadelphia poll watchers.
• What to know about Trump's ballot counting challenges.
• Angry Dems blame far-left turn for disappointing election.
  

CNBC.com:

• Coronavirus testing stocks have ‘a lot more room to run,’ Jim Cramer says.
• All-star investor Rich Bernstein sees ‘a very bearish sign’.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Uber, Square, Roku, Peloton & more.
• Fed holds interest rates steady near zero, says economy is still well below pre-pandemic levels.
• Trump campaign to sue in Nevada, claiming votes by dead people and non-residents; Biden lead grows.

MarketWatch.com:           

• Peloton sales triple as pandemic surge continues, but the stock is falling amid delivery issues.  
• Zillow posts biggest earnings on record as online real estate booms during pandemic, stock shoots toward record.  
• Roku delivers surprise profit and large revenue beat, but stock falls.

Zero Hedge:

• Why Does Biden Have So Many More Votes Than Democrat Senators In Swing States?
• "We'll Get Fu*king Torn Apart Again In 2022": Democrats Livid In Leaked Caucus Call After Crushing Election Losses.
• "Racist" Trump Won More Minority Votes Than Any GOP Candidate Since 1960.
• This Is The Textbook Definition Of "Late Cycle" In The Stock Market.
• South Florida Prepares For Eta As It Could Reenergize Into Hurricane.
• An Election Where (Almost) Everybody Loses?
• Here Is The Age Distribution Of Trump And Biden Voters.
• Greenwald: America's Inability To Count Votes Is A National Disgrace... And Dangerous.
• Pentagon Chief Esper Drafts Resignation Letter - Hopes To Strip Confederate Base Names On Way Out.
• The Nation Continues To Creep Left.
• Uber Slides After Top-Line Misses On Continued Mobility Weakness.
• Put Simply...The Swamp Is Just Too Big To Be Drained.
• Facebook Censors Massive Pro-Trump Group Protesting "Widespread Ballot Fraud".
• QE Hope Sparks Big-Tech, Bitcoin, & Bullion Bid; But 'Smart' Money Is Dumping.

The Epoch Times:

• China Insider: US State Department Launches New Website on CCP’s Human Rights Abuses.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.75 -1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 35.25 -1.5 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.71 -.05%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 336.0 -25.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.0 +.78%
• FTSE 100 futures -.37%.

• S&P 500 futures -.36%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.59%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (CVS)/1.34
• (DISH)/.53
• (ELAN)/.13
• (HSY)/1.72
• (MGA)/1.37
• (MYL)/1.16
• (VIAC)/.80
• (ZBH)/1.08
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Oct. is estimated to fall to 600K versus 661K in Sept.
• The Unemployment Rate for Oct. is estimated to fall to 7.6% versus 7.9% in Sept.
• Avg. Hourly Earnings MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in Sept.
  

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +1.1% versus a +1.4% gain in Aug.
  

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for Sept. is estimated to rise to $7.75B versus -$7.22B in Aug.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Mexico inflation rate and the (Y) virtual investor meeting could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Substantially Higher into Afternoon on Stimulus Hopes, Dollar Weakness, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 27.4 -7.3%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 372.0 +212.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.89 -.05%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.9 unch.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.9 -10.0%

• ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 +5.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .80 -17.5%

• NYSE Arms .74 -53.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.07 -6.0%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 803.29 -2.53%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 69.37 -8.92%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 131.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.73 -4.67%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 192.31 -5.08%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 180.37 +.07%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 unch.

• TED Spread 13.75 +.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.25 -1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  75.25 -3.0 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 68.25 +.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.71 +.88%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 59.25 -6.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 113.90 USD/Metric Tonne +.68%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 120.50 -2.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 96.90 -4.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 54.50 -5.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.66 +1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +138 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +217 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -48 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my medical/consumer staple/tech/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long