Tuesday, November 10, 2020

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News: 
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch.com:          
Zero Hedge:
OANN:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to -.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.25 -.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 28.75 +.5 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.50 +.01%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,115.0 +4.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.61 +.73%
  • FTSE 100 futures -.43%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.10%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.07%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (APD)/2.21
  • (LM)/.85
  • (LMND)/-.58
After the Close:
  • (HI)/.56
Economic Releases
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -788,090 barrels versus a -7,998,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +338,640 barrels versus a +1,541,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,500,270 barrels versus a -1,584,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.54% versus a +.7% gain prior.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Japan inflation data, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Roth Tech Conference, Stifel Growth Conference and the (VZ) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Mounting Election Fraud Evidence, Increasing Virus Concerns, Rising Long-Term Rates, Tech/Gaming Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 25.6 -.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,050.0 +102.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.94 +.01%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.7 +1.7%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.8 -9.9%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 122.0 -31.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .78 +6.9%
  • NYSE Arms 1.40 +105.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.08 -.58%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 717.82 -.86%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.83 -.71%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 125.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.66 -3.55%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 171.56 -.11%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 180.69 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 11.25 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.0 -.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  71.75 -.25 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 70.0 +1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.59 -.17%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.
  • Yield Curve 74.5 +7.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 119.60 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 101.90 -3.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 91.8 -4.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 50.2 -.3 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.76 +3.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +440 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +32 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my medical/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth -1.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Video Gaming -3.5% 2) Social Media -2.8% 3) Software -2.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • CMG, ADBE, BILL, TMO, NOW, RCL, SRG, MTN, WYNN, NOV, MDB, SLG, STMP, AAXN, ALRM, PS, PLNT, PINS, MRTX, EVOP, CHGG, PRPL, NVDA, TXG, SQ, TNDM, EB, TTD, ELY, WORK, TWOU, CHWY, DRI, AMD, LTHM, SAVE, MGNI, AXNX, NCLH, FSLR, ZM, FOUR, REAL, CALX, NLS, AL, HA, DENN, TTCF, CUK, CCL, RPAY, RVNC, VITL, NVAX, NBIX, SUPN, BYND, RAMP, PRAX and ARNA
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) AR 2) FE 3) ADI 4) RDFN 5) ZS
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) VYGR 2) BTU 3) NBIX 4) SSTI 5) JMIA
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value +2.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilders +5.1% 2) Tobacco +3.8% 3) Construction +2.5%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • XPER, WES, SPR, GVA, ZI, TRIP, WIFI, ICPT, FLGT, CHEF, WBA, ULTA, ARCT, WLL, CLH, DHI, ASGN, LOB, BA, HWM, CYH, PTON, THS, SGRY, FBC, CUBE, LEVI, USFD, KIM, DNLI, DEI, AVB, ELS, ATRA, NNN, FUBO, EBIX, KRC, PEN, EQR, CPS, PEB, NWS and AGNC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) AHT 2) PRTS 3) SPR 4) TWO 5) GNW
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) ULTA 2) LEVI 3) ICPT 4) AMGN 5) CAE
Charts:

 

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running +62.2% Above 100-Day Average
  • 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
  • 62.4% of Issues Advancing, 35.2% Declining
  • 31 New 52-Week Highs, 3 New Lows
  • 69.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 54.9% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,084.0 +136.0 points
  • Vix 25.0 -3.0%
  • Total Put/Call .71 -2.7%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.03 +50.0%

Monday, November 09, 2020

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +1.0% to +2.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.75 -3.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 28.25 -3.5 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.58 -.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 974.0 +26.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.26 -.06%
  • FTSE 100 futures -1.0%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.04%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (AAP)/2.67
  • (DHI)/1.78
  • (ROK)/1.75
After the Close:
  • (DOX)/1.19
  • (BRKS)/.36
  • (COHR)/.80
  • (LYFT)/-.90
Economic Releases
6:00 am EST
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Oct. is estimated to rise to 104.1 versus 104.0 in Sept.
10:00 am EST
  • JOLTS Job Openings for Sept. is estimated to rise to 6500 versus 6493 in Aug.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Quarles speaking, Fed's Brainard speaking, Supreme Court Case on Affordable Care Act begins, 10Y T-Note auction, US weekly retail sales reports, UK unemployment data, German ZEW Index, Baird Industrial Conference, Morgan Stanley Chemicals/Ag/Packaging Conference, BofA Merrill Energy Conference and the Deutsche Bank Auto Tech Conference could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.