Friday, November 13, 2020

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value +1.6%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gaming +4.2% 2) Airlines +3.6% 3) Energy +3.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • FSR, U, XPEL, FLGT, VIVO, CSCO, CCL, GBT, PLTR, ENR, XRAY, PLTR and APPN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) XSPA 2) WY 3) CYRX 4) HWM 5) FCEL
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) FTCH 2) PDD 3) CSCO 4) CCL 5) UTZ
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Thursday, November 12, 2020

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:                           
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News: 
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch.com:            
Zero Hedge:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to -.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 59.75 +2.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 30.25 +2.5 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.75 -.05%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 868.0 -84.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.60 +.09%
  • FTSE 100 futures -1.19%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.08%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (DKNG)/-.63
  • (SPB)/1.28
  • (VIPS)/1.70
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • PPI Final Demand MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in Sept. 
  • PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in Sept.
10:00 am EST
  • Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for Nov. is estimated to rise to 82.0 versus 81.8 in Oct.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China Yuan Data, Bloomberg Nov. US Economic Survey and the Eurozone GDP report could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Mounting US Election Fraud Evidence, Virus Economic Shutdown Fears, Diminished Stimulus Hopes, Energy/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 25.2 +7.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 958.0 -248.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.52 -.04%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.72 -.09%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 43.4 +9.5%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 10.0 +9.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .87 -14.7%
  • NYSE Arms .93 -45.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.90 +3.12%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 728.50 +1.6%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.63 +5.95%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 122.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.18 +1.11%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 175.47 +2.18%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 180.85 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 unch.
  • TED Spread 12.5 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.75 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  75.0 +3.5 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 70.5 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.80 +.02%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.
  • Yield Curve 75.25 +.5 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 118.81 USD/Metric Tonne -.87%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 86.50 -12.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 92.3 -.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 55.7 +3.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.72 -3.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -180 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -15 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -91 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value -2.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Energy -3.0% 2) Banks -3.0% 3) Airlines -2.8%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • EBIX, MCD, RETA, BAC, MNR, PRVB, FUBO, PRTS, EBS, FTAI, LE, INTC, ABR, APLE, HBI, FRC, GRA, BEN, PING, REAL, APAM, AUB, HWM, PBCT, SPG, MET, GDRX, CMA, PLMR, NLSN, HQY, HIBB, TRIP, CUK, SAVE, PSX, SSYS, REYN, JOE, WYNN, APD, REPL, FOX, NEO, CCL, RARE, FSK, BDTX, MTOR, ADPT, SLQT, PLTR, RVLV, VRM, BEAM, HRMY, ENR and GOCO
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) AEO 2) TSN 3) BBY 4) GRWG 5) FOXA
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) RVLV 2) COHR 3) APD 4) PBR 5) HPQ
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth -.9%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +1.4% 2) Video Gaming +1.3% 3) Social Media +.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • FLGT, CELH, FPRX, GRWG, MTEM, ATRA, EPC, JWS, FSR, UTZ, REV, MRNA, RGEN, HALO and XPEL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) PS 2) PK 3) TCO 4) EPR 5) AES
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) XPEV 2) PDD 3) EPC 4) HD 5) NOW
Charts: