Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• U.S. Blacklists Xiaomi in Widening Push Against China Technology.
• Kim Jong Un Unveils New Submarine Missile Threat as Trump Exits.  
• ECB Won’t Need Extra Stimulus to Fight Pandemic, Economists Say.
• Stocks Edge Lower With Yields After Biden Plan: Markets Wrap. 
• Oil Climbs With U.S. Aid Hopes Brightening Consumption Outlook.  
• Biden Stimulus, Powell Talks Taper, World-Beating China: Eco Day.
• Here Are the Major Parts of $1.9 Trillion Biden Relief Plan.
• Biden Urges More Than Doubling Minimum Wage to $15 an Hour.  
• Powell Bats Down Bond-Taper Talk, Warning Against an Early Exit.  
• Newbies Discover Penny Stocks and 1 Trillion Shares Get Traded.  
• GM Working on Expanding Corvette Line With Crossover SUV.  
• U.S. Supply Chains Disrupted by Millions Calling Out Sick.  
• Point72 to Expand With Florida Offices as Managers Head South.
• Here Are the U.S. Companies Hitting Pause on Political Donations.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Covid-19 Death Toll Is Even Worse Than It Looks.
• Pelosi’s Top Priority: Consolidating Power.
• Those $2,000 Checks Won’t Boost the Economy.
• James Simons Steps Down as Renaissance Chairman.
• Latest: France Declares New Nationwide Curfew.
• Delta Looks Toward Recovery After Dark Pandemic Winter.
• Chips Are in Hot Demand—and That’s a Problem.
• Poshmark’s Stock Price More Than Doubles, Latest in String of Soaring IPOs.

Fox News:   

• Critics stunned by AOC's 'un-American' call for commission to 'rein in' free press.
• FBI preps Florida for possible pro-Trump rallies on Sunday.
  

CNBC.com:

• Healthtech firm Accolade is buying telemedicine start-up 2nd.MD for $460 million, sources say.
• Joe Biden just released his $1.9 trillion Covid relief plan.
• Signet’s move into selling jewelry online yields strong holiday results, CEO says.

MarketWatch.com:     

• COVID-19 infection likely to provide immunity for at least 5 months, but people may still transmit virus, study finds.  
  
• Fed’s Powell says talk of tapering bond-buying is premature.

Zero Hedge:

• Watch: US Nuclear Submarine Approaches Iranian Naval Drills, Standoff Ensues.
• 2017 Redux? DC Descends Into Dystopian Lockdown As Inauguration Day Looms.
• "Domestic Terrorist?" - Leftist BLM Activist Who Stormed Capitol On Jan. 6 Arrested, Charged.
• Elon Musk's Chinese Fairy Tale Will Eventually Come To An End.
• NYC Tenants Owe More Than $2 Billion In Unpaid Rent As Cuomo Extends Eviction Moratorium.
• As Biden Prepares To Wage War On NRA, Gun Sales Erupt.
• Here Are The 'Alt Tech' Platforms Trump Supporters Are Flocking To After Parler Executed By Amazon.
• Biden's Banana Republic.
• Christopher & Banks Files For Bankruptcy, Could Close All Stores.
• Rates, Rhetoric, & The Tapering Paradox.
• Crypto & Small Caps Surge, Dollar Shrugs Ahead Of Biden's Budget Bonanza.

Newsmax:

• Texas AG Paxton to Newsmax: Trump Social Media Bans 'Very Concerning'.
• Permits for Inauguration Week Protests Reined In Amid Rising Security Threats.
• Marvel Comics Called to Retire 'Punisher' After Skull Logo Worn by Capitol Rioters.
• Dozens on Terror Watch List in DC Jan. 6.
• Navarro: Dems 'Did Violence' by Impeaching 'Legally Elected' Trump. Peter Navarro Calls Parler Ban 'Chilling,' 'Threat' to Democracy.
• Trump's Children, Aides Could Be Suspended if They Try to Circumvent Twitter Ban.
  

NBC 10 Philadelphia:

• These Are the Companies Taking a Stand on the U.S. Capitol Protest by Pulling Their Political Donations. Many of the country's biggest companies across industry sectors, from Ford Motor Co. to Airbnb to Boston Scientific, announced suspensions of all PAC donations. The list of companies pledging change, which continues to grow, included the financial services companies JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup and the tech behemoths Microsoft, Facebook and Google. A host of other large companies, including Delta Air Lines, Wells Fargo, Walmart and Bank of America, said they would take the unprecedented events of last week into account when considering future political donations.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Four GOP Reps DIDN’T VOTE on Impeachment – Along with the 10 Turncoats Who Voted to Impeach Trump – Update.
• CAUGHT ON VIDEO: Antifa Protester John Sullivan Brags About Posing As Trump Supporter, Breaking Window At US Capitol Building During Riots.
• “The Oligarchs [Are] Taking Control of Our Country.” – Rudy Giuliani on the Capital ‘Frame Up’ Last Week and Big Tech Censorship.
• BREAKING: In FOIA Request FBI Says It Never Looked at Seth Rich’s Laptop in Their Possession for Years – Does Anyone Believe This?
• BREAKING: Project Veritas: Twitter Insider Records CEO Jack Dorsey Talking Trump and Laying Out Roadmap For Future Political Censorship.
• Delta Puts Utah Patriots Who Confronted Mitt Romney at the Airport on No-Fly List.
• FLASHBACK: Hundreds Of Violent Left-Wing Rioters Smashed Windows, Set Limousine On Fire In Washington DC During President Trump’s Inauguration In 2017; Government Later Dropped ALL CHARGES Against The Rioters.
• MIT Professor Arrested and Charged with Grant Fraud for Failing to Disclose Work For Chinese Government.
• Biden Inaugural: National Guard Troops Authorized to Use Lethal Force as D.C. Turns Into Police State.
• EXCLUSIVE: President Trump’s Executive Order from Yesterday Directly Impacts the Bidens’ Investments in China.

The Epoch Times: 

• Sudden Resignation of Two Sinopharm Executives Raises Doubts Over Chinese-Made Covid-19 Vaccines.
• Chinese Regime Oversaw ‘Unprecedented’ Efforts to Crush Human Rights in 2020, US Commission Says.

ProtectTheVote.com: 

• Serious allegations of misconduct in the 2020 elections have resulted in unprecedented legal action to ensure our elections are -- and remain -- free and fair. Find out where we’re exposing fraud and how you can help.

HereIsTheEvidence.com:

• This is for aggregating publicly available items of voter fraud evidence in the US election that would be admissible in court.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 61.5 +.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 30.5 +.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.83 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,930.0 -23.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.20 -.57%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.04%.

• S&P 500 futures -.06%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.06%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (C)/1.31
• (JPM)/2.65
• (PNC)/2.57
• (WFC)/.59
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• PPI Final Demand MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.1% gain in Nov.
• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in Nov.
• Empire Manufacturing for Jan. is estimated to rise to 6.0 versus a reading of 4.9 in Dec.
• Retail Sales Advance MoM for Dec. is estimated unch. versus a -1.1% decline in Nov.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Dec. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a -.9% decline in Nov.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for Dec. is estimated to fall -.3% versus a -.8% decline in Nov.
  

9:15 am EST

• Capacity Utilization for Dec. is estimated to rise to 73.6% versus 73.3% in Nov. 
• Industrial Production for Dec. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.4% gain in Nov.

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for Nov. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.7% gain in Oct.
  
• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for Jan. is estimated to fall to 79.7 versus 80.7 in Dec.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China GDP report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Long-Term Rate Rise, Virus Shutdown Worries, Technical Selling, Tech/Healthcare Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.4 +.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,030.0 -20.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.50 -.11%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.4 -1.2%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.4 -3.6%

• ISE Sentiment Index 130.0 -3.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .64 -24.7%

• NYSE Arms .61 -62.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.0 -.15%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 497.60 -1.37%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.6 +2.5%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 119.0 +7.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 61.23 -1.64%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 162.31 -1.71%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 184.76 -.38%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 6.5 -1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 15.75 +1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  72.0 -1.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.75 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.86 +.51%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 95.75 -2.25 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 169.23 USD/Metric Tonne +3.34%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 52.20 -3.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 162.90 -2.4 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 63.9 +.4 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.09 +3.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +182 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +112 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -8 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/energy/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my energy longs and took profits in my consumer staple longs
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Software -1.0% 2) Internet -.5% 3) Medical Equipment -.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• EXEL, ALNY, CWST, QDEL, UBER, ALRM, GDOT, VTRS, MTRX, MA, MASI, VOXX, BLK, FSRV, PRVB, PLUG, RMO, RVP, NFE, MSCI, GRUB, AMSC, CLSK, ROOT, GOEV, CDLX, LMND, SAVA, FCEL and EOSE
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MGY 2) AKAM 3) BLK 4) SYF 5) ACIA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FCEL 2) SNAP 3) CDLX 4) OLLI 5) URBN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +2.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +5.5% 2) Oil Service +4.4% 3) Retail +3.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• UAVS, ACIA, GME, SRAC, MAXR, BBBY, DDD, NK, MSTR, SPCE, GIK, UNFI, BYND, ALDX, MAC, ATOM, SSYS, DDS, NAVI, SATS, KTOS, NGA, SKT, FUSE, QTRX, AYX, REAL, DNMR, W, IRDM, ETH, GM, DMTK, MKSI, GOGO, ANAB, VNT, HEC, TTCF and CCIV
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) STAY 2) LXRX 3) CSX 4) XLI 5) AKAM

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) KBH 2) SPCE 3) BYND 4) GKOS 5) MRO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +17.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 71.2% of Issues Advancing, 26.3% Declining
• 270 New 52-Week Highs, 3 New Lows
• 84.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 53.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,012.0 -40.0 points
• Vix 22.0 -.7%
• Total Put/Call .75 -11.8%
• TRIN/Arms .77 -52.2%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• U.S. Bans Xinjiang Cotton Products, Tomatoes Over Forced Labor.
• U.S.-China Decoupling Raises Risks for European Firms.    
• Surging Shipping Rates Are a New Headwind for the Global Economy
• A $2,500 Book on U.S. Decline Is Suddenly a Must-Read in China.   
• Record Valuations Raise Alarm in India’s Frenzied Stock Market.
• Disneyland Site Opens; Australia Backs AstraZeneca: Virus Update.   
  
• Treasury Yields Steady After Drop; Japan Stocks Up: Markets Wrap.  
• World Economy Boxed In, Gaping Deficit, Taper Specter: Eco Day.
• U.S. Covid Hospitalizations on Cusp of First Decline in Months.
• Covid-19 Outbreaks Aren’t Driven by In-Person Classes, CDC Says.  
• Schumer Asks Biden to Seek More Than $1.3 Trillion in Relief.
• Petco IPO Raises $864 Million as Retailer Returns to Market.
• Here Are the U.S. Companies Hitting Pause on Political Donations.
• U.S. Budget Deficit Widened 61% in Quarter on Covid-19 Spending.

Wall Street Journal:

• Trump Impeachment Deepens GOP Divide.
• Andrew Yang Joins Race for New York City Mayor.
• The Pros and Cons of the Most Popular Encrypted Chat Apps.
• U.S. Agencies Pushed for Chinese Covid Tests.
• China’s Economy Powers Ahead While the Rest of the World Reels.
• Democrats Plan Policy Path on Next Round of Stimulus Checks.
• Iran Is Assembling Gear to Produce Key Nuclear-Weapons Material.
• Arizona GOP to Weigh Censure of Republicans Including Cindy McCain.
• Smart Face Masks? Fever-Sensing Doorbells? CES 2021 Tech Promises Covid Protection.

Fox News:   

• Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey explains Trump Twitter ban, makes stunning admission.
• Senate won’t reconvene early to start impeachment trial before Trump leaves office: McConnell spokesman.
• Trump 'would have standing to challenge' his impeachment trial, Turley says.
  

CNBC.com:

• J&J’s one-shot Covid vaccine is safe and generates promising immune response in early trial.
• Snapchat will terminate Trump’s account on Jan. 20.
• U.S. vehicle safety agency asks Tesla to recall 158,716 older vehicles over touchscreen glitches.
• Stocks are climbing a ‘wall of worry’ too quickly amid tax risks, Oppenheimer’s John Stoltzfus says.

Zero Hedge:

• In Final Act, Trump Admin To Present 'Bombshell' Findings Blaming Wuhan Lab For COVID-19, WHO Cover-Up.
• Bagholder's Row: Condo At NYC's One57 Sells For A Record 51% Discount.
• Blue Lives Matter Organization Calls Out Democrats Over Their Sudden Change Of Heart.
• Another Mutant COVID Strain Discovered In Ohio.
• Fed President: We Should Have A Discussion About Guaranteed Basic Income.
• Pelosi Names Eric Swalwell As House Impeachment Manager.
• Trump Impeached By House For Second Time.
• Pompeo Tells Taxpayer-Funded News Outlet: "Time To Put Woke-ism To Sleep".
• In "Staggering" Lack Of Self-Awareness, Twitter Lectures Uganda On Principles Of 'Open Internet'.
• A Big Move To Ban Realtor "Hate Speech" At Work, Anywhere, 24/7.
• Watch: Trump Says "Mob Violence Against Everything I Believe In...It Must Stop".
• Parler CEO Says Conservative Twitter Competitor May "Never" Return.
• Turley: The Senate Should Reject The Impeachment.
• J&J One-Shot Vaccine Is Safe In Early Trials, Generates "Promising Immune Response".
• The Fed Sent $838 Billion in "Profits" To The Treasury In Past Decade.
• Congressional Hysteria & Hypocrisy Could Doom Liberty.
• Bonds & Big-Tech Bid As Penny-Stock Buying-Panic Explodes.

Newsmax:

• McLaughlin Poll: GOP to Reject Those Voting to Impeach.
• Which 10 Repubs Supported Impeachment?
• Conservatives Move to Strip Liz Cheney of Leadership Job.
• MLB Suspends Political Donations After DC Protest.

NBC 10 Philadelphia:

• These Are the Companies Taking a Stand on the U.S. Capitol Protest by Pulling Their Political Donations. Many of the country's biggest companies across industry sectors, from Ford Motor Co. to Airbnb to Boston Scientific, announced suspensions of all PAC donations. The list of companies pledging change, which continues to grow, included the financial services companies JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup and the tech behemoths Microsoft, Facebook and Google. A host of other large companies, including Delta Air Lines, Wells Fargo, Walmart and Bank of America, said they would take the unprecedented events of last week into account when considering future political donations.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BREAKING: GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene to Introduce Articles of Impeachment Against Joe Biden on January 21 Over Abuse of Power (VIDEO).
• Baseball Great Curt Schilling Says AIG Canceled His Insurance Over his Conservative Beliefs — Same Company that Got a $182 Billion Bailout from US Taxpayers.
• HUGE: Jovan Pulitzer Releases Report — Confirms Numerous Countries Interfered In the 2020 Election – Millions of Invalid Ballots Inserted Into the Election.
• HERE THEY ARE: Liz Cheney Leads 10 House Republicans Who Voted to Impeach Trump — GOP IS DOOMED IF LIZ KEEPS LEADERSHIP POSITION.
• Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene Blasts Democrats for Supporting Riots, Triggers Media With ‘CENSORED’ Mask During Anti-Impeachment Speech.
• BREAKING: Texas Election Fraudster Caught in Project Veritas Undercover Sting Arrested For Widespread Vote Harvesting – Faces Up to 20 Years in Prison.
• Louie Gohmert DUNKS on Pelosi – Quotes Her Support for Black Lives Matter Riots on House Floor– Liberals Freak Out!
• MI Judge Orders Dem Sec of State To Release All Communications With Dominion, Facebook, Apple, Amazon and Google.

The Epoch Times: 

• Power Behind Chinese Telecom Giants.
• Chinese Authorities Relocate 20,000 People for Virus Quarantine as Locals Question Official Data.
• New CCP Virus Outbreak in Northeastern Chinese Province Spreads Quickly.

ProtectTheVote.com: 

• Serious allegations of misconduct in the 2020 elections have resulted in unprecedented legal action to ensure our elections are -- and remain -- free and fair. Find out where we’re exposing fraud and how you can help.

HereIsTheEvidence.com:

• This is for aggregating publicly available items of voter fraud evidence in the US election that would be admissible in court.
  

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 61.25 -1.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 30.0 -.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.50 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,094.0 +43.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.95 -.5%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.31%.

• S&P 500 futures +.24%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.21%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BLK)/8.26
• (DAL)/-2.44
• (TSM)/4.50
  

After the Close:

• (PRGS)/.78
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 789K versus 787K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 5000K versus 5072K prior.
• Import Price Index ex Petrol for Dec. is estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in Nov.
• Import Price Index YoY for Dec. is estimated to fall -.8% versus a -1.0% decline in Nov.
• The Export Price Index MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.6% gain in Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, China Trade Balance report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (MNST) investor day could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.