Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.5 -.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 34.25 +.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.89 -.09%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,826.0 +15.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.0 -.01%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.32%.

• S&P 500 futures +.06%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.10%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ANGO)/-.02
• (FDS)/2.74
• (MKC).59
  

After the Close:

• (BB)/.03
• (CHWY)/-.10
• (LULU)/2.49
• (PVH)/-.23
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +1.1% gain in Dec.
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +1.25% gain in Dec.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March is estimated to rise to 96.7 versus 91.3 in Feb.

Upcoming Splits

• (SHW) 3-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Quarles speaking, China Manufacturing PMI report, German Inflation Data report, Eurozone Economic Sentiment, weekly US retail sales reports, BofA Automotive Summit and the Scotiabank Telecom/Media/Tech Conference could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Afternoon on US Economic Optimism, Oil Gain, Technical Buying, Utility/Telecom Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.5 +8.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,833.0 -25.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.64 -.05%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.2 +.72%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.5 -1.4%

• ISE Sentiment Index 117.0 +19.4 points
  

• Total Put/Call .87 -2.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.14 -20.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.76 +.68%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 483.54 -.60%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.99 -2.4%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 96.25 -.75 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.73 +.23%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 184.43 +1.68%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 188.78 +.08%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.5 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 18.5 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  75.75 +.75 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.25 -.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.0 -.30%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 152.0 +4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 160.30 USD/Metric Tonne +4.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.60 -3.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 163.10 +11.4 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.60 -.3 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 +4.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +35 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -5 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +71 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -2.7%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -4.6% 2) Education -3.5% 3) Gaming -3.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TCRR, STAA, STL, ROOT, MAC, MSGN, FPI, VIAC, REPL, PCT, TCBI and CLDX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) NLSN 2) HGEN 3) PCG 4) PLAY 5) GIS
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PLUG 2) MINE 3) RIDE 4) CODX 5) VLDR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Utilities +.6% 2) Defense +.5% 3) Telecom +.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• HGEN, DBI, IONS, KTOS, X, CHPT, BLUE, ECOM, UPST, AVNW and ALEC
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) KTOS 2) HGEN 3) XLP 4) ISREG 5) ADP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) FLY 2) BLUE 3) BA 4) TAP 5) TWTR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -8.4% Below 100-Day Average 
• 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sector Declining
• 27.7% of Issues Advancing, 69.3% Declining
• 167 New 52-Week Highs, 14 New Lows
• 87.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 52.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,742.0 -115.0 points
• Vix 21.3 +13.2%
• Total Put/Call .82 -7.9%
• TRIN/Arms 1.52 +5.6%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:             

• H&M Stores Shut by Chinese Landlords as Xinjiang Backlash Grows.
• Ship’s Front Was Damaged; 350 Vessels Waiting: Suez Update.
  
• Abu Dhabi Wants to Revolutionize How Middle East Oil Is Sold.   
• Hugo Boss Under Fire From Chinese Stars Over Xinjiang Pledge.
• Shock-Worn World Economy Girds for Supply Jolt in Suez Mess.
• Germany May Be Forced Into Hard Lockdown as Covid Cases Surge.  
• Mideast Equities Rise as Traders Weigh Volatility: Inside EM.
  
• More German Restrictions Loom; U.S. Deaths Fall: Virus Update.  
• U.S. Equity Futures Dip, Asia Stocks Set to Climb: Markets Wrap.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.
• Roaring Twenties, Shock-Worn World, Australia Stimulus: Eco Day.
• Get Ready for Biggest U.S. Jobs Surge in Months.
• Here’s How the World’s Chip Shortage Is Playing Out for Stocks.
• New York to Expunge Convictions With Marijuana Legalization.
• Goldman U-Turn on Hwang Put Bank at Nexus of Margin Call Mayhem.  
• Traders Are ‘Glued to Their Screens’ and Set for Volatile Open.

Wall Street Journal:

• New Age of Chinese Nationalism Threatens Supply Chains.
• Europe’s Covid Bill Is Coming Due.
• Biden’s Filibuster Ultimatum.
• The Cuomo Scandals: This Is CNN.
• U.S. Farmers Vie for Land as a Grain Rally Sparks Shopping Spree.
• U.S. Not Ready to Lift China Tariffs, Trade Representative Says.
• House Prices Are Inflating Around the World.
• Bond Bulls Charge Ahead, Challenging Consensus on Rising Yields.
• Biden to Push Child-Care Spending.
• Inequality by Way of Government.
• Big Tech Censors Religion, Too.

Fox News:

• UK ex-host rips Meghan, Harry, cancel culture and ‘woke brigade’.
• CARAFANO: How America's adversaries view Biden border mess.
• Chris Wallace rips Psaki for not allowing reporters at the southern border and he doesn't stop there.   
• More DC teens arrested as graphic video of deadly carjacking surfaces, Dem mayor ignites outrage.

CNBC:  

• The end of the quarter could create volatility for markets in the week ahead.
• Cheniere and Shell oil tankers change course to avoid Suez Canal as ships divert routes.
• ViacomCBS, Discovery plunge due in part to forced liquidation of Archegos Capital positions.
• Top Wall Street analysts bet on these stocks for long-term growth.

Zero Hedge: 

• Egyptian President "Prepare For All Scenarios" To Refloat Megaship. 
• Elite Philanthropy Mainly Self-Serving. 
• Metadata: The Digital Fingerprint You Had No Idea Is Attached To Every Photo You Take.
• ARK Invest's New Space ETF Could Launch As Early As Next Week. 
• Re-Fund The Police? LA County Increases Funding by $36 Million Months After Budget Cuts.
• US Believes China "Flirting" With Taiwan Takeover: It's "Closer Than Most Think".
• Biden Warmly Invites "Killer" Putin & "Autocrat" Xi To Major Climate Summit.
• Blinken Blasts "Baseless" China Sanctions On US As Ploy To "Intimidate & Silence".
• Average Wall Street Bonus Rises 10% To $184,000 Thanks To 2020 Recession.
• Market Rallies On Powell's "Easy Money" Promise.
• Oil Tanker Rates Surge As Suez Canal Blockage Continues.
• Here Come The Global Vaccine Passports.
• The Brewing Conflict In Ukraine.
• 77% Of Americans Are Worried About Soaring Inflation .
• Could The US Ban Guns? Australia Tried Something Pretty Close.
• Montana Senator Complains Local Meth Producers Can't Compete With Mexican Imports.

MarketWatch.com:    

• Biden to split massive spending plan in two, focusing first on infrastructure.
  
• 10 highest-yielding dividend-stock ETFs for a low-rate world.
  

NewsMax:  

• Ex-CBP Chief Mark Morgan to Newsmax TV: Biden's 'Ideological Hubris' Creating Border Chaos.  
• Sen. Ted Cruz Shares Video of Kids in 'Biden Cages'.
• US Waives FBI Checks on Caregivers at New Migrant Facilities.
• Ted Cruz: Cartel Members 'Renting' Kids To Bring Them to US Border.
• Dem. Rep. Cuellar: 'Unprecedented Numbers' of Illegals Being Released in US.
• Poll: Americans Disapprove of Biden's Border Inaction.
• Kudlow: 'Class Warfare' From Biden Will Crush Economy.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Corey Lewandowski: President Trump’s Social Media Platform Will be Interactive and Will Allow Users to Interact Without Fear of Being Canceled.
• They’re Not Sending Their Best: Over 861 Criminals Caught Crossing US Rio Grande Border including 63 Gang Members, 92 Sex Offenders and Murderers.
• Going Viral: Semi-Trailer Load of Illegal Aliens Unloaded in Pearsall, Texas – Who’s Behind This? (VIDEO).
• Your Tax Dollars at Work: Biden’s Illegal Migrants and Fake Refugees Are Being Flown Out Across America – 40% of McAllen, TX Air Traffic Now Migrants.
• Explosion at Sacred Heart Catholic Church in Makassar, Indonesia Kills 2 Bombers and Injures 19 Christians on Palm Sunday.
• CNN Refers to Two Black Teen Girls Caught on Camera Murdering Uber Eats Driver as ‘An Accident’.
• They’re Coming for Your Guns: Biden Admin Urges Supreme Court to Allow Police to Take Guns from Homes without a Warrant.

The Epoch Times:

• EU-China Trade Deal on Brink Over Beijing ‘Wolf Warrior’ Diplomacy After Xinjiang Sanctions.
• Western Retailers Caught Between Revenue and Ethics Over Rights Abuses in Xinjiang.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.5 -.5 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 34.0 unch.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.15 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,865.0 +6.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.75 +1.7%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.1%.
• S&P 500 futures -.38%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.42%

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (CALM)/.06
  

After the Close:

• (SEER)/-.31
  

Economic Releases

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for March is estimated to fall to 14.5 versus 17.2 in Feb.

Upcoming Splits

• (SHW) 3-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan unemployment rate could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.