Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gambling +2.7% 2) Disk Drives +2.0% 3) Networking +1.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• THRX, ALLK, NKLA, SGMS, CRNC, DSP, XMTR, ITCI, DNUT, OCDX, ZYXI, YOU, FUBO, FTAI, CHWY, TSLA, SOPA, HTZ, MU, CNM, SSSS, KROS, SKYT, WNC, VIAC, LYFT, LVS, GTN, NE, ARCB, LAZR, MCW and OLLI
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ATUS 2) EWT 3) XXII 4) ARCC 5) XLV

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NKLA 2) LULU 3) GNRC 4) KTTA 5) ZEV
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -29.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 64.9% of Issues Advancing, 34.0% Declining
• 59 New 52-Week Highs, 19 New Lows
• 44.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 45.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,046.0 +198.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,395 +.15%
  
• Vix 17.8 -4.3%
• Total Put/Call .76 -6.2%
• TRIN/Arms 1.03 unch.

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 82.0 -.75 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 42.0 -.75 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.92 +.02%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,794.0 -50.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.9 +.23%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.37%.

• S&P 500 futures +.04%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to fall to 205K versus 206K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1835K versus 1845K prior.
• Personal Income for Nov. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.5% gain in Oct.
• Personal Spending for Nov. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.3% gain in Oct.
• The PCE Core MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in Oct.
• Durable Goods Orders for Nov. is estimated to rise +1.8% versus a -.4% decline in Oct.
• Durables Ex Transports for Nov. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.5% gain in Oct. 
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for Nov. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.4% gain in Oct.
  

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for Nov. is estimated to rise to 770K versus 745K in Oct.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone GDP report, weekly Langer Consumer Comfort Index and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 1:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Diminished US Virus Mandate/Lockdown Fears, Seasonality, Oil Gain, Homebuilding/Medical Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.5 -7.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,784.0 +154.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.33 +.45%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.0 -.09%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 32.6 -7.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 142.0  +22.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .80 -5.9%

• NYSE Arms 1.14 +81.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.01 -1.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 407.60 -1.7%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.36 -.41%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 134.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 82.25 -1.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 198.06 -1.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 33.08 +.20%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.5 +1.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 15.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 -1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  74.0 unch.
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.59 +.56%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% +2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 79.0 -.5 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 122.8 USD/Metric Tonne -3.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.1 +4.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.4 -.3 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.3 +2.4 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.49 +1.5 basis points
• 47.2%(-.4 percentage point) chance of no change at March 16th meeting, 32.5%(-1.3 percentage points) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 328 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) n/a/100K people
• 62% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) n/a
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +158 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +54 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +13 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/medical/transport sector longs

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  100% Net Long
  

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 82.75 -1.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 42.75 -1.25 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.43 +.27%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,655.0 +26.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.3 +.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.31%.

• S&P 500 futures -.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.18%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (KMX)/1.44
• (CTAS)/2.65
• (MSM)/1.20
• (PAYX)/.80
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Nov. is estimated to fall to .4 versus .76 in Oct.

10:00 am EST

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Dec. is estimated to rise to 111.0 versus 109.5 in Nov.
• Existing Home Sales for Nov. is estimated to rise to 6.53M versus 6.34M in Oct.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,979,130 barrels versus a -4,584,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -108,250 barrels versus a -719,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -677,880 barrels versus a -2,852,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.3% versus unch. prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PPI report and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 1:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -2.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 79.4% of Issues Advancing, 17.5% Declining
• 18 New 52-Week Highs, 32 New Lows
• 43.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,496.0 +268.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,009 -.54%
  
• Vix 22.6 -1.2%
• Total Put/Call .77 -12.5%
• TRIN/Arms .93 -13.0%