Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Diminished US Virus Mandate/Lockdown Fears, Short-Covering, Oil Gain, Energy/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.0 -1.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,296.0 +137.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.17 -.59%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.4 +.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 26.4 -6.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 88.0  -53.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .74 -7.5%

• NYSE Arms .66 -53.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.63 +.17%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 381.53 -1.2%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.76 +.01%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.97 -1.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 185.93 -1.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 32.96 +.12%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.5 unch.
  

• TED Spread 18.0 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 2.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  70.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.0 -.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.12 +.6%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% +2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 80.5 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 120.40 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.9 -1.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 36.4 +6.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .9 +2.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.63 +4.0 basis points
• 39.5%(-4.0 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th FOMC meeting, 24.7%(-4.3 percentage points) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 891 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +195/100K people
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -22.8%(+15.5 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/3/21-1/9/21
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +204 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +40 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +26 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/tech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -1.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -2.9% 2) Road & Rail -2.0% 3) Pharma -1.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• FTAI, RBLX, BLDR, USAC, PAYC, PLD, UMH, CARR, FUL, NTRA, PFE, ZUO, MTTR, CTAS, FAST, TW, TMO, NDAQ, ZTS, WDAY, ODFL, TOL, CRWD, CVET, MBI, PAY, SHW, PKI, CUBE, PLYM, CTRN, IRT, S, FRC, GRTS, SPT, ZS, ARCB, FTNT, HUBS, MRNA, DDOG and MDB
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) TECL 2) AKAM 3) DISCK 4) CTRA 5) PSX
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) MMC 2) BEKE 3) SNAP 4) ZG 5) ACC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +5.6% 2) Energy +2.7% 3) Banks +2.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TCS, KRP, VECO, CIT, APTS, PTCT and TALO
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TECL 2) NKTR 3) ICPT 4) VTNR 5) XLB

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) IMMX 2) BLCT 3) WOLF 4) STNE 5) TSLA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +5.7% Above 100-Day Average 
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 54.1% of Issues Advancing, 42.1% Declining
• 68 New 52-Week Highs, 20 New Lows
• 51.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,2569.0 +113.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,237 +.22%
  
• Vix 17.4 +1.1%
• Total Put/Call .74 -7.5%
• TRIN/Arms .65 -53.9%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China’s Foreign Debt Edges Up to $2.7 Trillion at End-September.
• Shares Suspended From Trading in Hong Kong: Evergrande Update.
• Singapore Growth Rebounds to Fastest in More Than a Decade.
• Record Wave of Emerging-Market IPOs Meets Investors Wary of Risk.
• Peso Goes From EM Asia’s Best to Worst Currency in a Week.
• U.S. Defense Secretary Positive; Singapore Party: Virus Update.
• Late Order Flurry Vaults Airbus Past Boeing for 2021 Crown.  
• Airlines Ask FCC to Delay 5G Wireless Rollout in Emergency Bid.  
• Why 5G Mobile Is Arriving With a Subplot of Espionage.

Wall Street Journal:

• Schools Press to Reopen.
• Stocks Face Rockier Path in 2022 as Rate Increases Loom.
• Omicron Takes Toll on Businesses, From Airports to Supermarkets.
• Democrats Seek Filibuster Changes to Pass Elections Bills.
• It’s China vs. Walmart, Latest Western Brand Entangled in Human Rights Dispute.
• China and Russia Military Cooperation Raises Prospect of New Challenge to U.S. Power.
• A Booming Startup Market Prompts an Investment Rush.
• Twitter Permanently Suspends One of Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Accounts.
• Millennials Are the Silencing Generation. Baby boomers were carefree and exuberant; our children are dour and anxious. 
• CES 2022: Five Tech Trends to Watch in an Unusual Year.
• Metaverse Needs More Than VR Christmas Bump.
• Chip Makers Contend for Scarce Talent.

Fox News:     

• AOC parties it up maskless in packed drag bar while flaunting rules for thee, not for me: 'Hypocrite'.
• Fully vaccinated Biden cabinet member tests positive for COVID.
• You may be wasting your time wearing a mask to help fight Omicron, here's why.

CNBC:

• Chip sales are set to grow nearly 10% in 2022 as risks rise, predicts new report.

Zero Hedge: 

• Malone: Do Not Take Part In The Lie.
• Glenn Greenwald Slams 'Dystopian' MTG Twitter Ban In Epic Thread.
• COVID, Ivermectin, And 'Mass Formation Psychosis': Dr. Robert Malone Gives Blistering Interview To Joe Rogan.
• Cost Of Building A Home Headed Back Up As Lumber Rips Higher To Finish 2021.
• CNN Story Perfectly Captures The Mass Covid Neuroticism Of 2021. 
• Greenwald: NBC News Uses Ex-FBI Official Frank Figliuzzi To Urge Assange's Extradition, Hiding His Key Role.
• Mid-Atlantic States Brace For Quick-Hitting Snowstorm.
• Senator AOC? Dem Insiders Insist NY Sen Kirsten Gillibrand Would Lose If Primaried By "Squad" Leader.
• Leaving Illinois: Another Wealthy Chicago Entrepreneur Votes With His Feet.
• "A Scandal-Free Biden Administration": The Media Celebrates A Year Free From Political Scandal And Press Scrutiny.
• The Ungracious... And Their Demonization Of The Past.
• Chicago Reports 797 Murders For 2021, Most Of Any US City.
• Biden Wants To 'Woke' Up Your Doctor.
• Could This Be Source Of Catastrophic Colorado Wildfire? 
• AT&T, Verizon Reject Biden Admin's Request To Delay 5G Launch Due To Flight Safety Concerns.
• Only The Most Brainwashed 'True Believers' Will Cling To The Failed Narrative. 
• Reflections On Another Year Of Covidian Lies & How The Truth Will Ultimately Prevail.

MarketWatch.com:       

• The S&P 500 beat both Dow, and Nasdaq in 2021 by the widest margin in 24 years. Here’s what history says happens in 2022.
  
• Tesla smashes quarterly delivery record, sees sales surge 87% in 2021.
  
• Goldman joins other big banks in urging employees to work from home amid omicron surge.

NewsMax:

• Experts Warn Pfizer Antiviral Pills May Pose Risks With Other Medications.  
• Gov. DeSantis' 6 Big Achievements of 2021.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Video: Conservative Ezra Levant Denied Mortgage Due to Political Views.
• Serial Killer Who Targeted Women Now Being Housed in Women’s Prison Because They Are ‘Transgender’.
• Just Like Soviet Russia: T-Mobile Is Erasing Links to Gateway Pundit Articles if You Send Them by Text Message — MORE UPDATES…
• Travel Hell: More Than 4,000 Flights Canceled New Year’s Weekend Due to Staffing Shortages Caused by Omicron and Mandates.
• Los Angeles Public Schools Cancelled Their Vaccine Mandate After 30,000 Kids Were Not Complying.
• FDIC Chair Resigns, Warns Democrats Launching ‘Hostile Takeover’.
• Biden Nominee Works For SPLC, Claimed Requiring Proof of Citizenship is ‘Voter Suppression’.
• Dr. Gottlieb Now Admits Cloth Masks Don’t Provide Protection Against Covid-19 (VIDEO).
• Here’s the Powerful Pfizer Video that Got mRNA Vaccine Inventor Kicked Off Twitter.
• WATCH: Former FDA Commissioner Gottlieb Stands Against Mandated Boosters for Kids.
• Confirmed: Failed WHO Leader and China-Phile Dr. Tedros Will Run Unopposed for Top Post at the WHO.
• MUST SEE: Italians Light Up The Sky With EPIC Storm of Fireworks In Defiance of Mayor’s Ban – Happy New Year, Worldwide Resistance.

The Epoch Times:

• Chinese Researchers Built AI ‘Prosecutor’ That Can File Charges by Itself.

Twitter:

• @DiscloseTV - NOW - People mauled by police dogs, beaten with batons at unauthorized protest against Covid restrictions in #Amsterdam. Hardly any confidence left in Germany: Only 32% believe that the Covid figures provided by the government are correct.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 709,083 Reports(+7,757 from prior week) Through December 24, 2021.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.0 -2.0 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 40.0 -.25 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.9 +.09%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,157.0 +2.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.8 -.78%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.17%.
• S&P 500 futures +.40%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.49%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.2% gain in Oct.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Manufacturing PMI report could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:                

• U.K. Vows to Avoid Lockdown; German Cases Rise: Virus Update.
• OPEC+ Seen Reviving Output in Sign of Confidence for 2022 Demand.
  
• Investing in 2022 Will Be More Challenging, CalSTRS’ Ailman Says.
  
• Charting the Global Economy: Factory Output Improving in Asia.
  
• U.S. Natural Gas Faces Wild 2022 as Foreign Crises Exert Pull. 
• New York Sets New Daily Record; Flights Snarled: Virus Update.  
• Another 2,600 U.S. Flights Canceled Amid Virus, Bad Weather.  
• Buttigieg Asks AT&T, Verizon to Delay 5G Over Aviation Concerns.  
• U.S. Shopping Visits to Discount Retailers Surged in December. 
• A Busy New Mayor Vows New York Won’t Be ‘Controlled by Crises’.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Companies Are Thriving Despite, or Because of, Covid.
• Red-Hot Housing Market Fuels Mortgage Borrowing Record.
• Europe Fights Record Covid-19 Cases, Looks Ahead to Reopenings. 
• The Doctor’s Office Becomes an Assembly Line. Consolidation is wiping out private practices and making medical care costlier and worse.
• The Conformity Crackup of 2021. From Covid lockdowns to crime and cops, the political-media consensus was wrong. 
• Pricey Chicken Puts Thighs on Restaurant Menus.
• Why Student Debt Keeps Growing—Even When Borrowers Keep Paying.
  

Fox News: 

• Texas celebrates big win after judge slams brakes on Biden mandate targeting low-income families. 
• READ THE TWEETS: AOC roasted over 'sexual frustrations' rant.
• WATCH: Liberal CNN host PANICS when co-host savages outgoing far-left mayor.
• Monoclonal antibody treatment effective against omicron, but there's a problem.

CNBC:

• Stocks could ride the 2021 tailwind into the new year, but the jobs report and Fed will be in focus.
• 10 things that will cost more in 2022.
• 2022 will be the biggest year for the metaverse so far.
• United Airlines offers pilots triple pay to ease omicron flight disruptions.

Zero Hedge:

• COVID, Ivermectin, And 'Mass Formation Psychosis': Dr. Robert Malone Gives Blistering Interview To Joe Rogan. 
• The Last Great Inflation.
• Omicron Offers An Off-Ramp From Our Failed Pandemic Policy.
• Judge Delivers Major Setback To Prince Andrew In Lawsuit Filed By Epstein Victim.
• "Inappropriate Political Influence": Chief Justice John Roberts Responds To Threats Against The Court.
• Trudeau Implies Black Canadians "Racist, Misogynistic" - Questions Whether Unvaxx'd Should Be "Tolerated".
• Omicron Is Creating An Unnecessary Media Hysteria Over Positive Case Numbers...Again.
• Ben Shapiro Eviscerates COVID Cult And 'Authoritarian Lockdown Nonsense' That's Destroyed 'Millions Of Lives'.
• 2022: The Year Of Breakdown.
• 2022 New Year's Resolution: Stand-Up In Defense Of Dissent!
• Humanity's Final Arms Race: UN Fails To Agree On 'Killer Robot' Ban.
• After First Year Bust, Here Are 5 New Year's Resolutions For President Biden.
• The Psychological Cruelty Of Denying Natural immunity.
• Fauci Goes There: Finally Admits Kids Not Being Hospitalized From COVID.
• China Pursues "Brain Control" Weaponry In Bid To Command Future Of Warfare.
• 2021 Year In Review: Madness, Mayhem, & Tyranny.
• China Punishes People Trying To Escape Brutal Lockdown In Xi'an.
• Male & Female Athletic Performance: Worlds Apart.
• FDA Maintains PCR Tests Are "Gold Standard" Despite CDC Dropping Over Positive Results 'Up To 12 Weeks'.

MarketWatch.com:       

• These are the best-performing S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 stocks of 2021.   
• Wall Street’s favorite stocks for 2022 include Alaska Air, Caesars and Lithia Motors.

NewsMax:

• Malliotakis, Fleischmann: Biden Policies Worsened Pandemic's Effects.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Did Joe Biden Just Have The Worst First Year Of Any President In Modern History?
• Twitter Suspends Grabien Media’s Account for Posting Video of GOP Rep Criticizing Big Pharma.
• Were Undocumented Ballots The Reason For Fraud at Detroit’s TCF Center?…”I literally watched thousands of unverified ballots get run through the machines” [VIDEO].
• IKEA Says Supply Chain Issues Forcing Them to Raise Prices.
• NASCAR Reviewing “Let’s Go Brandon” Coin Sponsorship After It Was Already Approved.
• Goodbye, Standards – Hello, Progress: Virginia School District Proposes Banning Homework, Extra Credit, and Essentially Grades Altogether Thanks To “Unlimited Retakes”.
• SHOCKING EXCLUSIVE: While Americans Slept Thursday Night “World Atlantic” Flight 695 Transported a Full Flight of Illegal Immigrants from El Paso to Allentown, PA.
• Surprise: FDA Warns That Pfizer’s Experimental Covid Pills Cause Life-Threatening Reactions When Used with Many Common Medications.
• MUST WATCH: Dr. Robert Malone Drops BOMBSHELLS During Much-Anticipated Interview With Joe Rogan – Says Federal Government is “Lawless” and Actively “Violating the Nuremberg Code”.

The Epoch Times:

• Chinese Researchers Built AI ‘Prosecutor’ That Can File Charges by Itself.

Twitter:

• @DiscloseTV - JUST IN - 89.7% of people infected with #Omicron in Denmark are either "fully vaccinated" or had their first booster, per report from today. 77.9% of the population is fully vaccinated.
• @JackPosobiec - Are you paying attention yet? The DOJ and Ghislaine Maxwell's lawyers have made a deal that her “little black book” of contacts will never be made public.
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 709,083 Reports(+7,757 from prior week) Through December 24, 2021. 

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).