Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Digital Health +3.1% 2) Social Media +3.1% 3) Video Gaming +2.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• LAZR, SOFI, NVCR, RUN, MATX, YMAB, PLUG, SAVE, MS, AA, RRD, PRGS, CVNA, TRV, EYE, SPWH, ERAS, ARRY, ROKU, SAIA, OC, AMRC, WTFC, WBS and PACB
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) APRN 2) COTY 3) BKR 4) PPL 5) IFF

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CSPR 2) OPRA 3) NVCR 4) JD 5) BDSI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +8.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 70.9% of Issues Advancing, 25.2% Declining
• 25 New 52-Week Highs, 90 New Lows
• 48.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 45.7% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,435.0 +220.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,897 +.44%
  
• Vix 21.96 -7.9%
• Total Put/Call .79 -12.2%
• TRIN/Arms .84 -24.3%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 86.5 -2.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 46.5 -3.5 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.39 +.01%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,242.0 +25.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.83 -.99%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.12%.

• S&P 500 futures +.10%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.17%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AAL)/-1.48
• (BKR)/.29
• (BKU)/.87
• (CTXS)/1.08
• (FITB)/.90
• (KEY)/.56
• (MTB)/3.26
• (RF)/.50
• (SAFM)/6.97
• (TRV)/3.86
• (UNP)/2.62
  

After the Close:

• (CSX)/.41
• (ISRG)/1.28
• (NFLX)/.82
• (PPG)/1.21
• (SIVB)/6.57
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 225K versus 230K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1563K versus 1559K prior.
• The Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for Jan. is estimated to rise to 19.0 versus 15.4 in Dec.
  

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for Dec. is estimated to fall to 6.43M versus 6.46M in Nov.

11:00 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,330.770 barrels versus a -4,553,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +1,878,400 barrels versus a +7,961,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -826,100 barrels versus a +2,537,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.17% versus a -1.4% decline prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China PBOC decision and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Technical Selling, Homebuilding/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.4 -1.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,381.0 +13.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.50 -.11%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.7 -.21%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 37.1 +.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 101.0  unch.
  

• Total Put/Call .86 -15.7%

• NYSE Arms .91 +1.11%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.79 -.31%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 374.24 +.24%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.82 -.93%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 135.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.94 -3.71%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 210.13 -3.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.52 +.70%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.0 -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 7.75 -4.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 2.0 n/a
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  85.5 -3.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.40 +.70%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .17% +4.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 84.5 +4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 131.40 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -1.20 +9.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 41.3 -.9 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.1 +.7 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45 -4.0 basis points
  
• 3.0%(+3.0 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th FOMC meeting, 1.6%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 1,605 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 93%(+11.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak +196/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -2.0%(+1.4 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/7/21 - 1/13/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +298 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +59 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my transport/medical sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Banks -2.3% 2) Disk Drives -1.7% 3) Homebuilding -1.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TOL, DWAC, MTB, CAT, VECO, ADS, PLUG, APPS, PECO, NTRS, CTRN, PRGS, RILY, BROS, MASS, STT, SEM, QS, UNFI, MTTR, ESTE, USB, F, CCRN and DTC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) IGT 2) USB 3) ITB 4) BBIG 5) SKYY
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) OCX 2) ADS 3) USB 4) TOL 5) PFE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +7.4% 2) Software +2.1% 3) Video Gaming +1.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ZGNX, SOFI, GATO, TTWO, RIL, SI, CVET, XPOF, RVMD, BCC, TGNA, OM, PYCR, NVTA, KSS, BEAM, NEM, PG, PWP, CRBU, IRWD, DIN, LVS and XLNX
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PPL 2) PLD 3) BHC 4) PPC 5) HL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ZGNX 2) ADMA 3) EVFM 4) LPTX 5) CSPR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume