Tuesday, June 07, 2022

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:            
 Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
Zero Hedge: 
Newsmax:
TheGatewayPundit.com: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.0 -.25 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS  68.25 -.75 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.86 -.04%.  
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 5,015.0 +55.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.5 +.6%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.39%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.20%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.26%. 
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (BF/B)/.26
  • (CPB)/.61
  • (OLLI)/.31
  • (THO)/4.79
  • (VRA)/-.16
After the Close:
  • (ABM)/.84
  • (FIVE)/.58
  • (OXM)/2.76
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for April.  
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,328,570 barrels versus a -5,068,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +1,000,000 barrels versus a -711,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +750,000 barrels versus a -529,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.42% versus a -.6% decline prior.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Treasury Secretary Yellen's testimony to House, Eurozone GDP report, 10Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Jefferies Healthcare Conference, (SHW) financial community presentation and the Deutsche Bank Basic Materials Conference could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Energy/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume:  Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 24.2 -3.4%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,963.0 +17.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.93 +.56%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.1 +1.9%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.9 +1.0% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 129.0 +35.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.03 unch.
  • NYSE Arms .89 +17.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.7 unch.
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 376.58 +2.6%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 291.0 +14.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 98.21 +.83%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 200.0 basis points -9.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.66 -.46%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 278.4 +.43%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.8 unch.
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 10,195.4 n/a
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 36.0 basis points -1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 39.0 basis points -10.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.75 basis points -.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  114.0 -8.0 basis points
  • iShares CMBS ETF 48.22 +.34%
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.93 -.42%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.23% +5.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 23.5 basis points (2s/10s) -7.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 144.95 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -43.4 +.8 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 16.5 +1.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 14.8 +.8 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.74 -4.0 basis points
  • 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at September 21st meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 260 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 15.0%(+2.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak +33/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -81.4%(+1.5 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +217 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +54 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +13 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial/commodity/medical/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilders -1.2% 2) Alt Energy -.8% 3) Electric Vehicles -.8%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • SPTN, FYBR, ENVX, ARCB, VIRT, OWL, VSCO, ARIS, VICI, PRM, FRSH, ESAB, FBRT, CODI, UNFI, MTZ, LESL, EHC, CBRL, RELY, PRCT, UDMY, ENFN, DFH, PACK, MNTK and REVG
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) CPB 2) ASHR 3) COUP 4) AMZN 5) SAVE
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) NGL 2) TGT 3) MULN 4) GT 5) SNCR
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service +2.5% 2) Energy +2.1% 3) Biotech +1.9%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • MRTX, GTLB, METC, SIGA, PARR, AMPH, FRG, KSS, ACET and HCP
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) DRE 2) ASHR 3) COUP 4) METC 5) PLAY
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) GTLB 2) METC 3) KSS 4) HCC 5) MRTX

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -15.8% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
  • 46.9% of Issues Advancing, 48.6% Declining
  • 56 New 52-Week Highs, 46 New Lows
  • 31.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 47.4% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,888.0 -59.0 points
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,970.0 -.05%
  • Vix 25.1 unch.
  • Total Put/Call .96 -5.9%
  • TRIN/Arms .92 +22.4%

Monday, June 06, 2022

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.75 -.5 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS  69.0 -1.0 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.08 -.13%.  
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,959.0 +15.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.2 +.66%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.55%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.21%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.35%. 
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (ASO)/1.41
  • (CBRL)/1.31
  • (PLAY)/1.14
  • (GIII)/.58
  • (SJM)/1.89
  • (UNFI)/.98
After the Close:
  • (CASY)/1.57
  • (VRNT)/.47
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Trade Balance for April is estimated at -$89.5B versus -$109.8B in March. 
3:00 pm EST
  • Consumer Credit for April is estimated at $35.0B versus $52.435B in March.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The German Factory Orders report, US weekly retail sales reports, 3Y T-Note auction, BofA Tech Conference, RBC Energy/Power/Infra Conference, UBS Industrials/Transport Conference, Needham Auto Tech Conference and the JPMorgan Auto Conference could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.