Monday, November 14, 2022

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:           
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:   
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
 OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 140.75 -8.75 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 76.0 +1.5 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.5 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 49.1 -.3%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.73 +4.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.2 -.8%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.28%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.27%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.40%  
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (ARMK)/.49
  • (BERY)/2.15
  • (ENR)/.79
  • (HD)/4.12
  • (DNUT)/.04
  • (SE)/-.95
  • (WMT)/1.32
After the Close:
  • (AAP)/3.34
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Empire Manufacturing for Nov. is estimated at -6.0 versus -9.1 in Oct.
  • PPI Final Demand MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in Sept.
  • PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Sept.
  • PPI Final Demand YoY for Oct. is estimated to rise +8.3% versus an +8.5% gain in Sept.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Cook speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, Eurozone GDP report, China Retail Sales report, weekly US retail sales reports, Bloomberg US Economic Survey for Nov., Jefferies Healthcare Conference, RBC Tech/Media/Telecom Conference, Stifel Healthcare Conference, Stephens Investment Conference, Wolfe Healthcare Conference, (AFL) Analysts Briefing, (PLNT) investor day, (LMND) investor day and the Needham Networking/Communications/Security Conference could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by healthcare and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Less Hawkish Fed Hopes, Diminished China Hard-Landing Fears, Less Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Commodity/Pharma Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume:  Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 23.0 +2.3%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .99%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 49.6 -.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 149.6 +.9%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.3 -.3%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 44.9 -2.0% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 96.0 -6.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .93 +25.7%
  • NYSE Arms .86 +11.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 82.2 -1.3%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 359.65 -4.1%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 477.0 unch.
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 105.41 -1.8% 
  • Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 331.08 -.42%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 203.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 143.61 -9.3%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 239.23 -3.06%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.5 +2.3%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 35.5 basis points -1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 45.0 basis points -4.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -52.25 basis points -1.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  146.0 +5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 132.0 unch.
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.22 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.57 -.08%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.17% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve -54.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 95.25 USD/Metric Tonne +1.8%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 117.5 euros/megawatt-hour +20.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.4 -.5 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 12.5 -3.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.3 -.7 point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 230.87 -.03:  Growth Rate +11.6% unch., P/E 17.3 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.74 +21.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +4.0% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.02% unch.: CPI YoY +7.62% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Feb. 1st FOMC meeting: 46.7%(-6.5 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 22nd meeting: 46.2%(-2.1 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
US Covid-19:
  • 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(+.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -85.0%(-.7 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +126 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +41 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +27 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/commodity/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  None
  • Market Exposure:  50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy -1.7% 2) Homebuilding -1.6% 3) Banking -.8%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • TROW, BLK, APPS, BROS, BAND, S, TPG, WWW, D, WAFD, XRAY, MGNI, BZH, EXFY, TDS, VET, GTLS, MATX, SE, VZIO, DOCS, HAS, CVNA, ASND and MASS
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) IHI 2) FIVN 3) WMT 4) XRT 5) TJX
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) AMPS 2) HTCR 3) OTLY 4) HAS 5) LCID
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Steel +2.0% 2) Pharma +1.8% 3) Biotech +1.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • DWAC, YOU, FDMT, SSP, PENN, BIIB, ECC, SI and PBT
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) XELA 2) PM 3) SCO 4) ARDX 5) FIVN
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) HRT 2) IQST 3) DSKE 4) MGIC 5) ARDX

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +7.2% Above 100-Day Average 
  • 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
  • 34.0% of Issues Advancing, 62.0% Declining
  • 29 New 52-Week Highs, 13 New Lows
  • 43.7%(-.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 66.0 +1.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 49.9 +.4%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,548.1 -.9%
  • Vix 23.2 +2.8%
  • Total Put/Call .85 +14.9%
  • TRIN/Arms .91 +18.2% 

Sunday, November 13, 2022

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:                      
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
MarketWatch.com:    
NewsMax:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 149.5 -15.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 74.5 -5.5 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 50.5 +1.5%.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.87 +8.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.7 +.8%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.34%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.14%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.23%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (TSEM)/.61
  • (TSN)/1.72
After the Close:
  • (JJSF)/.91
  • (SJR)/.36
  • (VVV)/.56
Economic Releases 
  • None of note
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Brainard speaking, Eurozone Industrial Production report and the Deutsche Bank Industrials Conference could also impact trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.