Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +1.1% 2) Computer Hardware +.5% 3) Pharma +.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BBWI, M, FDMT and  NRDS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) VVV 2) AAP 3) ARDX 4) BURL 5) GPS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BBWI 2) ARDX 3) LX 4) M 5) DOLE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -6.0% Below 100-Day Average 
• 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
• 24.0% of Issues Advancing, 72.3% Declining
• 19 New 52-Week Highs, 53 New Lows
• 39.0%(-6.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 59.0 -7.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 47.0 -.9%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,685.0 +.17%
  
• Vix 24.2 +.3%
• Total Put/Call .90 -23.3%
• TRIN/Arms .89 -58.4% 

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                   

• Japan’s Trade Deficit Driven Wider by Weak Yen as Imports Surge.
• Best Rally in Decades for Asia to Cool Once Reality Sets In.
• Stocks Edge Higher, Yield Curve Inverts Further: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Extends Drop on Demand Concerns as Geopolitical Risks Ease.
• New York Loses Luster as Democratic Bastion After GOP House Gains.  
• Investment Giants With $2.3 Trillion Bet On More Market Turmoil.
• Financial Risks Shouldn’t Shape Fed Rate Decisions, Williams Says.
• Wall Street Push Against New Rules Gets Boost From GOP House Win.  
• FTX Came Dangerously Close to Upending Futures Markets.
• Inside a Once-$10 Billion Crypto Empire That’s Suddenly Cracking.
• FTX Contagion Hits Winklevoss Twins as Crypto Lenders Reel. 
• Crypto Lender BlockFi Plans Bankruptcy Filing Within Days.  
• Amazon Employees Fear ‘No One Is Safe’ as Layoffs Roil the Ranks.

Wall Street Journal:

• Senate Advances Same-Sex Marriage Bill.
• Ukrainian Analysis Identifies Western Supply Chain Behind Iran’s Drones.
• Yale, Harvard Law Schools Dump U.S. News Rankings.
• This Thanksgiving, What Prices to Expect at Your Grocery Store.
• Lab-Grown Poultry Clears First Hurdle at FDA.
• Micron to Cut Production of Memory Chips.
• Disney World Announces Another Round of Price Increases.
• Wrong-Way Driver Hits Los Angeles Sheriff’s Recruits, Injuring 25.
• Darrell Brooks Sentenced to Life Without Parole for Waukesha Parade Attack.
• U.K. Inflation Hits 41-Year High as Recession Looms.

Fox News:

• GOP candidate projected to win key congressional seat, securing House majority for Republicans.
• Biden official torched for repeating 'amazing lie' as crisis rages.

CNBC.com:

• Gemini, BlockFi, Genesis announcing new rules as FTX contagion spreads.
• Nvidia revenue falls 17% but data center growth remains strong.
• Pentagon says Moscow’s deliberate targeting of Ukrainian energy grids is a war crime.
• Fed’s Waller says he’s open to a half-point rate hike at December meeting.
  

MarketWatch:                    

• Cisco’s stock rises on strong quarterly sales and guidance, but a restructuring is coming.  
• Venture capital investors see an ‘R’ word coming for tech — and it isn’t just recession.  
• ‘It feels very much like the Wild West.’ Crypto hedge funds linked to FTX fallout may struggle to recover lost assets, say managers.

Zero Hedge:

• Associated Press Issues Correction To Its Fake Report Which Could Have Kicked Off WW3.
• Germany Preparing For Emergency Cash Deliveries, Bank Runs And "Aggressive Discontent" Ahead Of Winter Power Cuts.
• Democrats Flip Gubernatorial Seats.
• The Road To Totalitarianism (Revisited).
• "Paralyzing Snowfall" Could "Cripple" Buffalo With Feet Of Snow.
• Housing Affordability Worsens As Homeownership Out Of Reach For Anyone Making Under $100k.
• Fauci's Pandemic Leadership Needs To Be Investigated: Dr. Scott Atlas.
• US stocks were lower Wednesday with the selling most acute in the US morning on bleak Target (TGT) consumer guidance - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Rates matter...and are MOVEing.
• Bankman-Fried: I Made An $8 Billion Mistake.
• The Age Of Easy Money Is Over.
• Nvidia Shares Pump'n'Dump After Earnings Miss, Revenue Beat, Outlook Steady.
• Risk off after Target alarm and weak IP data offsets strong retail sales - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Quinn: You Can't Escape The Fourth Turning's Winter Of Death.
• Stocks Sink As Yield Curve Tumbles To Biggest Inversion In 40 Years.

Newsmax:  

• Warnock Joins Suit to Allow Saturday Voting in Ga. Runoff.
• Dick Morris: GOP Can Halt Biden Agenda, House Can Probe Admin.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• DHS Secretary Mayorkas Says Border Is “Secure” After 5 Million Illegals Cross Into US in 2 Years – And Flood of Illegals Expected to Surge in Following Latest Ruling.
• Arizona’s Election Must Be Redone: Here Are At Least Three Provable Constitutional Violations That Render the Results Uncertifiable.
• JUST IN: Senate Votes 62-37 to Advance Bill That Would Protect Same-Sex Marriage – Here Are the Republicans Who Voted with Democrats.
• Homeless Man Stabs Two People Inside Target in Downtown LA — One of the Victims Was a 9-Year-Old Boy.
• Biden Threatens to Veto Proposed Senate Resolution to End Covid-19 Emergency Declaration After 13 Democrats Voted with Republicans.
• BREAKING: Mitch McConnell Elected Senate GOP Leader – Because These Guys Really, Really Hate You.
• Ivanka Trump Says She Won’t Be Involved With Politics This Time Around.
• Mastercard, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and Others Launch 12-Week Digital Dollar Pilot Program with New York Fed.
• Trump Vows To “Dismantle Deep State” By Making Term Limits For Members of Congress.
• Xi Jinping Scolds Justin Trudeau Like a School Boy – Calls Him Out in Front of Cameras for Leaking Their Convo to Reporters (VIDEO).
• BREAKING: Grassroots Group Releases Footage of Maricopa County Ballot Mules Stuffing Ballots in a Drop Box – VIDEO.

The Epoch Times:

• CCP Spy Sentenced to 20 Years for Stealing Aviation Secrets.
• Rubio Blasts Biden–Xi Meet, Says President ‘Dangerously Misunderstands the CCP’.
• Trump Vows ‘All-Out Campaign to Eliminate America’s Dependence on China’ While Announcing 2024 Bid.

Twitter: 

• @songpinganq - In many cases Chinese government will throw away the Covid detainees's belongings include clothes, comforters, sofas...and food. (video) New - Authority in China's Wuhan city is still building many massive quarantine camps. (video)
  
• @HoustonChron - Texas Children's ER sees massive spike in kids with mental health crises like suicidal thoughts.
• @CitizenFreePres - Obama in 2008. Voting machines and election fraud. (video)
• @AlertChannel - WATCH: Massive Protests in #Brazil against the election continue. (video)
• @StockMKTNewz - NVIDIA $NVDA SAYS DON'T EXPECT TO SEE BLOCKCHAIN BEING AN IMPORTANT PART OF OUR BUSINESS DOWN THE ROAD - Reuters.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 894,850 Reports(+3,243 from prior week) Through November 4th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 146.25 +5.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 78.5 +2.25 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.4 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 47.2 -.4%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.81 +4.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.1 +.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures unch.

• S&P 500 futures +.17%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.27%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BABA)/11.60
• (BJ)/.84
• (DOLE)/.10
• (KSS)/.75
• (M)/.19
• (NTES)/7.46
• (PLCE)/3.79
• (WB)/.52
  

After the Close:

• (AMAT)/1.75
• (DLB)/.71
• (GPS)/.00
• (PANW)/.69
• (POST)/.70
• (ROST)/.81
• (WSM)/3.74
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for Oct. is estimated to fall to 1410K versus 1439K in Sept.
• Building Permits for Oct. is estimated to fall to 1514K versus 1564K in Sept.
• Philly Fed Business Outlook for Nov. is estimated to rise to -6.7 versus -8.7 in Oct.
• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 228K versus 225K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1510K versus 1493K prior.
  

11:00 am EST

• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for Nov. is estimated to fall to -8 versus -7 in Oct.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Jeffereson speaking, Australia Unemployment Rate, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, JMP Securities Financial Services/Real Estate Conference, JPMorgan Services Conference, Goldman Metals & Mining Conference, (PG) investor day, (GM) investor day and the Canaccord Genuity MedTech Forum could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Near Session Lows on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Earnings Outlook Jitters, China Hard Landing Fears, Tech/Retail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 24.1 -1.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .49%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 47.2 -3.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 149.61 +.46%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.2 -.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 45.7 -1.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 98.0 +2.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.19 +43.4%

• NYSE Arms 2.33 +117.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 83.72 +.89%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 369.08 +1.44%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 412.0 +6
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 105.69 +3.0% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 358.73 +4.82%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 194.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 141.34 -.22%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 250.12 +3.93%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.77 +.03%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 32.25 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 43.5 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -50.25 basis points +2.0 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  142.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 131.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.21 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.46 -.21%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.20% +5.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -67.25 basis points (2s/10s) -9.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 95.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 106.7 euros/megawatt-hour -14.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.3 +3.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 17.0 -.6 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.5 -.1 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 230.70 -.01:  Growth Rate +11.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.2 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.85 +1.0 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +4.38% +38.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.02% unch.: CPI YoY +7.60% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -6.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Feb. 1st FOMC meeting: 54.6%(+2.5 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 22nd meeting: 49.1%(+1.0 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(+.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -84.2%(+.2 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -101 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -19 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +22 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech/commodity/industrial/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.7%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Semis -4.1% 2) Retail -3.6% 3) Computer Hardware -3.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BILI, HELE, FLNG, BSAC, SFL, LSCC, PINS, WWW, U, SI, SE, PARA, DKS, TWST, PETS, PCRX, PLCE, PCOR, MNSO, M, OLLI, ONON, WRBY, LAUR, COIN, NNOX, DWAC, TGT, ASLE, AAP and DLO
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EWC 2) KSS 3) TGT 4) AEO 5) SOXX
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CORZ 2) AAP 3) TGT 4) CCL 5) M
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

 Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Foods +1.0% 2) Restaurants +.8% 3) Utilities +.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NTRA, ESAB, FDMT, VREX and LOW
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EWC 2) AGEN 3) URA 4) TGT 5) TJX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) IVFH 2) IMGN 3) SRAD 4) LOW 5) ARCO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume