Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.5%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Utilities -2.0% 2) REITs -1.7% 3) Retail -1.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• AY, MNST, CWAN, RY, RYAN, AHCO, GO, SWX, RELY, ARE, EHAB, DIN, AAP, PUBM, ZM, CPNG, SKYT, AGO, LOW, WRBY, RVNC, UMH, EDR, SILK, CORT, WB, YOU, ESMT, TALO, FHN, MBI, EVA, AMBA, PWSC, MDRX, TSVT, TSVT, RIVN, EYE and XMTR
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) IMGN 2) AAP 3) ASHR 4) KSS 5) FSLR
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NVAX 2) AMC 3) EYE 4) XMTR 5) IHRT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• Steel +3.5% 2) Gold & Silver +2.9% 3) Energy +2.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RETA, BGS, ISEE, DUOL, DY, SDGR, SRPT, AMPH, FSLR, DDD, RGNX, CARG, GOLF, JACK, AXON, FOUR, VTNR, RYTM, AMRC, CEIX, VVNT, SLRC, TWI, RYI, VRSK, SCHN and ITCI
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CLNE 2) FSLR 3) BIG 4) GSAT 5) DUST

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) RETA 2) SRPT 3) DUOL 4) GOLF 5) AXON
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (BUD)/.85
• (BBY)/2.14
• (BIG)/-.77
• (BLUE)/-.25
• (BURL)/2.73
• (CNQ)/2.26
• (HRL)/.45
• (ICPT)/-.46
• (KR)/.90
• (M)/1.59
• (PDCO)/.61
• (SIX)/.17
• (SFM)/.37
• (SSYS)/.03
• (TD)/2.20
  

After the Close:

• (AVGO)/10.17
• (AI)/-.22
• (CHPT)/-.16
• (COO)/2.69
• (COST)/3.20
• (DELL)/1.64
• (HPE)/.53
• (MRVL)/.47
• (JWN)/.67
• (VSCO)/2.34
• (VMW)/1.96
• (AUY)/.06
• (ZS)/.29
  

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• 4Q Non-Farm Productivity/Unit Labor Costs revisions. 
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 195K versus 192K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1669K versus 1654K the prior week.
  

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Services Index for Feb. is estimated to fall to 54.5 versus 55.2 in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Waller speaking, Australia Building Permits report, weekly EIA nat gas inventory report, BofA Refining Summit and the BofA Animal Health Summit could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +10.5% Above 100-Day Average 
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 49.1% of Issues Advancing, 47.4% Declining
• 42 New 52-Week Highs, 29 New Lows
• 54.2%(+1.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 40.0 -1.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 64.2 +2.8%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,856.6 -.35%
  
• Vix 20.6 -.4%
• Total Put/Call 1.03 +3.0%
• TRIN/Arms .92 -24.6%
  

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 115.0 -.5 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 71.0 +1.0 basis point. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 124.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.57%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.5 +.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  62.9 +.6%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .20 +2.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.9 +.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.28%.

• S&P 500 futures -.20%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.3%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Earnings Outlook Worries, Dollar Strength, Energy/Healthcare Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.2 -3.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .59%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 62.9 +.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 149.9 -.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.6 -3.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 34.6 -2.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 103.0 -2.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .97 -5.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.01 -28.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.45 -.35%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 359.72 -1.34%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 294.0 +3
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.3 +.21% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 403.4 +.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 183.0 basis basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 115.8 -1.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 239.0 -.12%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.2 +.03%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 36.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 16.5 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.0 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  148.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 525.0 +9.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 60.0 +2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.4 -.09%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.80% +3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 124.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.7 euros/megawatt-hour -1.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 38.6 -1.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 61.8 +1.3 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.4 +.2 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 224.8 +.73:  Growth Rate +1.1% +.4 percentage point, P/E 17.7 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.37% -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .19 -2.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -88.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.80% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.72% unch.: CPI YoY +6.21% -2.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 +5.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 3rd FOMC meeting: 73.2%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 14th meeting: 59.6%(+3.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(-0.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -83.3%(+.1 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -4 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +7 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech/medical sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long