Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 4,141.9 -.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 33,686.4 -1.20%

• NASDAQ 12,247.17 +.14%

• Russell 2000 1,762.05 -.67%

• NYSE FANG+ 6,179.07 +.87% 
• Roundhill Meme Stock ETF 29.4 -3.1%
  

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 137.69 -.14%

• Wilshire 5000 41,241.3 -.68%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,491.46 +.12%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,500.29 -1.74%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 803.89 -.46%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,106.02 -.67%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,119.30 +.81%

• Transports 14,167.23 +1.0%

• Utilities 960.11 +.18%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 79.0 -.73%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 39.47 +.65%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,463.3 -.30%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 919.88 -.30%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 452,381 -.68%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 7.1 -19.3%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -644 -463
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -28.7 -2.1%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 236,438 -3.33%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,826,195 -4.6%

• Total Put/Call .89 -6.3%

• OEX Put/Call 1.13 +7.5%

• ISE Sentiment 100.0 -3.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms .65 -35.4%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 54.7 -1.4%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .05 unch.
  
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index -4.51 -2.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 16.8 +7.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.48% +41.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.74 +5.8%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.87 +2.7%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.81 -.2%

• Smart Money Flow Index 13,245.30 +.76%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  67.0 +16.2
  

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $5.310 Trillion +.9%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$.385 Million

• AAII % Bulls 24.1 unch.

• AAII % Bears 44.9 +16.6%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 261.60 -4.2%

• Crude Oil 71.41/bbl. -6.9%

• Reformulated Gasoline 238.22 -5.9%

• Natural Gas 2.13 -11.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.6 euros/megawatt-hour -4.5%
  

• Heating Oil 231.90 -2.5% 
• Newcastle Coal 170.0 (1,000/metric ton) -8.6%
  

• Gold 2,017.02 +1.22%
• Silver 25.64 +2.2%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 429.87 -1.9%

• Copper 389.35 +.31%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 377.0 USD/Metric Tonne -11.3%

• China Iron Ore Spot 99.5 USD/Metric Tonne -2.3%

• Lumber  347.2 -2.2%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,594.98 +1.96%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 395.0 USD/Short Ton +1.3%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast +2.66% +100.0 basis points
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate (graph)
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 65.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index .92 -11.5%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 131.3 n/a

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 227.72 +.99:  Growth Rate +2.3% +.4 percentage point, P/E 17.8 -.4 
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.26% -3.0 basis points
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.7 -2.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -14.6 -29.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.9 +1.3 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(-11.5 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.75-5.0%, 91.5%(+26.9 percentage points) chance of no change, 8.5%(-15.4 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.25-5.50% on 6/14
  

• US Dollar Index 101.25 -.39%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,692.67 +.32%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 29,338.5 +.43%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 155.59 -.97%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -47.75 +13.25 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.44% unch.
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.467 Trillion -.69% 
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $50.699 Billion -28.6%
  

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 70.99 +.98%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 177.91 +2.94%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 190.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 26.0 +4.8%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 76.23 +5.1%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 225.75 +.61%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 61.21 -.54%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 45.12 +1.7%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.6 -.62%

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.5% unch.
  
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +6.0% unch.
  
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +8.5% unch.
  
• CPI Core Services Ex-Rents YoY 6.2% unch.
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.66% unch.: CPI YoY +5.19% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22% unch.

• TED Spread 9.5 -13.0 basis points
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.0 -3.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.75 -.25 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 80.3 +5.7%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 266.0 +7.2% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 428.0 +28.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 103.77 +5.1%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 380.85 +4.0%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 246.92 +3.3%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 167.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 709.0 +13.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .95 +1.0 basis point
  

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -4.1% unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,144.0 -.40%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 239,250 +1.5%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% -10.0 basis points
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 49.8 +.44%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.79% -21.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 214,400 -1.15%

• Weekly Retail Sales +1.4% -10.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -4.0% -1.0 percentage point
  
• Box Office Weekly Gross $154.1M -17.0%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.56/gallon -.07/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,545 -2.3%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 967.58 +.32%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 32.5 -13.3%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 45.9 +4.9%

• Rail Freight Carloads 245,642 +2.4%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,498,939 -.73%
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +.1%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -1.7%

Leading Sectors

• Gold & Silver +5.1%

• Computer Hardware +4.3%
• Road & Rail +2.9%
  

• Disk Drives +2.6%
  

• Biotech +1.9%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Shipping -5.1%
  

• Energy -5.3%
  

• Telecom -5.4%

• Banks -7.4%
  

• Regional Banks -10.8%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (22)

• LASR, OMI, FNKO, SPXC, FLGT, DKNG, BILL, EDIT, NCR, LYV, APLS, QLYS, AMN, CRNX, SEM, POWI, LMND, MTZ, IAS, ATEC, PRVA and PDO
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (34)

• ARLP, PRGO, TXRH, BRKR, GDDY, CRUS, FND, GPRE, SBH, TSE, NGVT, PCTY, IRTC, PRDO, DAVA, PYCR, ASAI, FYBR, GLOB, ENV, SDGR, FOXF, TNDM, MYGN, TEAM, MPWR, AVID, EPAM, PWSC, CLFD, USM, TRUP, ATSG and TOP
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Diminished Regional Bank Contagion Fears, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Financial/Commodity Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.4 -13.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.08%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 54.2 +8.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 155.5 +.43%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.81 +.31%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 34.7 -9.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 99.0 +11.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .92 +4.6%

• NYSE Arms .68 -25.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.05 -2.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 413.20 -3.9%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 428.0 +15.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 102.79 -3.9% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 378.08 -1.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 190.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 135.3 -.13%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 247.87 -1.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.63 -.15%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.0 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 6.25 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.25 +1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 170.0 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 709.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 95.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.0 +.31%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.24% +3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 99.54 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.6 euros/megawatt-hour +2.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.7 +3.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -14.6 -19.9 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.9 +.3 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 227.72 +.22:  Growth Rate +2.3% +.3 percentage point, P/E 17.8 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.26% unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .06 +26.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.51 +19.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -47.5 basis points (2s/10s) -10.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.66% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.66% unch.: CPI YoY +5.19% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 60.9%(+26.0 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 51.0%(+12.5 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -83 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +25 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +79 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/utility/industrial/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BNTX)/.70
• (DISH)/.39
• (ENR)/.52
• (FRPT)/-.43
• (SIX)/-.86
• (THS)/.40
• (TSN)/.80
  

After the Close: 

• (DDD)/-.07
• (ADTN)/.04
• (DVN)/1.39
• (FN)/1.87
• (MCK)/7.13
• (PYPL)/1.10
• (SWKS)/2.03
• (TREX)/.33
• (WDC)/-1.57
  

Economic Releases

10:00 Am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for March.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Import Prices report, Oppenheimer Industrial Growth Conference and the (AES) investor day could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running +11.5% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 7.3 +.2
  
• 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
• 84.7% of Issues Advancing, 13.6% Declining
• 34 New 52-Week Highs, 39 New Lows
• 39.3%(+6.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.0 +9
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 54.2 +8.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,263.7 +.46%
• 1-Day Vix 12.1 -41.9%
  
• Vix 17.6 -12.6% 
  
• Total Put/Call .94 +6.8%
• TRIN/Arms .87 -4.4%
  

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• Chinese Tropical Island at Center of Alleged Green Fuel Fraud.
• ECB Bid to Diverge From Fed Pits Lagarde Against Tide of History.
• Toronto-Dominion CEO Has War Chest He Can’t Spend After First Horizon Deal Collapses.
• Asia Stocks Face Headwinds From US Local Bank Rout: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Set for Worst Run This Year as Recession Fears Rattle Market.
• FDIC Plans to Hit Big Banks With Fees to Refill Insurance Fund.
• Google Is Falling Behind in AI Arms Race, Senior Engineer Warns.
• Apple’s Tim Cook Says AI Concerns Still Need to Be Sorted Out. 
• Fed Emergency Loans Plunge After First Republic Seizure.
• Return of Regional Bank Angst Batters Corporate Debt Markets.
• Bank-Stock Short Sellers Are Doing ‘A Meaningful Service.’ Dick Bove Says.
• Hollywood Studios Say They Offered Writers a $97 Million Raise.
• Peloton Discloses Bike Seat Defect and Says a Fix Is Planned.
• Pacific West Bancorp Tries to Avoid a Case of Mistaken Identity.
• Fed Rate Hikes Are Weighing on the Housing Market. That’s Bad News for Construction Jobs.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

Zero Hedge:

• New Footage Shows El Paso Engulfed In 'Mass Migration Dumpster Fire' As State Of Emergency Declared.
• "Credit Tightening" Mentions In Earnings Calls By Execs Soars Past 2008 Levels. 
• Fentanyl Overdose Deaths Skyrocket 279% Since 2016 Amid Nationwide Drug Crisis.
• Black Caucus Urges Senate Dems To Demolish Judiciary Nomination Tradition.
• Fox's Gutfeld Defends Tucker Carlson After Video Leaks Draw Backlash.
• Cash-Strapped Millennials Turn To Thrift Stores For Wedding Attire.
• 'Disgraceful': GOP Senators Accuse Dems of Threatening To Cut SCOTUS Security Funding Amid Ongoing Threats.
• The New Ugly Americans: VDH. 
• US stocks were lower as banking sector woes continued to drag - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Debunking Kiev & Blinken's Latest Lie.
• Apple Jumps After Beating Across The Board, Announcing Massive $90 Billion New Stock Buyback.
• Massive Retail Money Market Inflows Suggest Bank Deposit Run Accelerating.
• Risk off sustains on more bank woes and mixed ECB ahead of NFP - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Novo Forced To Limit Supply Of Blockbuster Obesity Drug Amid Soaring Demand.
• May The 4th Be With The Shorts: Regional Bank Rout Sparks Bond & Bullion Bid.
• Market faces systematic selling and renewed liquidity tightening.

Wall Street Journal:

• Russia Accuses U.S. of Helping Kyiv to Plan Kremlin Attack.
• The ‘Bad Boy’ of Shipping Cashes In on Russian Oil.
• Warren Buffett Has Been Betting Big on Oil. It’s Time to Find Out Why.
• Bill Gates, Leon Black, Thomas Pritzker: ​One​ Day in the Life of Jeffrey Epstein.

CNBC.com:

• Regional bank stocks continue to slide on Thursday with PacWest leading the way down 50%.
• Apple reports better-than-expected quarter driven by iPhone sales.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Apple, Carvana, DoorDash, Block and more.
• Americans haven’t been this worried about their bank deposits since the 2008 financial crisis.
• Crypto has ‘lost its shine’ for institutional investors, says Northern Trust executive.

MarketWatch:

• Icahn Enterprises rallies 10% as company to pay out $2 a unit, says it does not have a liquidity problem.
• Coinbase stock rises as Q1 results beat, but company warns bank disruptions are rattling crypto.
• Lyft stock sinks as forecast falls short of estimates, while new CEO takes aim at Uber.
  
• Bank stocks may need to drop at least 30% before its time to worry about the economy, study says.

Newsmax: 

• Sinema and Tillis Working on Stopgap Border Measure.

Fox News:

• Red Sox fans at Fenway Park show embattled Bud Light how they really feel in viral video.
• WATCH: Kennedy stumps Biden official on $50 trillion cost to fight climate change.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Kirby Walks Away After Refusing to Comment on Allegations of a “Criminal Scheme Involving Then-VP Biden and a Foreign National” (VIDEO).
• In Pre-Recorded Message Tucker Carlson Predicted His Ouster from FOX News (Video).
• Breaking: Top Intel Chiefs Forced to Testify Over Hunter Biden Laptop Lie – John Brennan and James Clapper to Appear Before House Committee.
• Navy SEAL Who Killed Bin Laden Disgusted by Navy’s New Recruitment Tactic: ‘I Can’t Believe I Fought for This’.
• Four Horses Mysteriously Die at Churchill Downs Just Days Before 149th Running of Kentucky Derby – VIDEO.
• Report: Massive Bus Caravan of Migrants Out of Costa Rica Headed to the US Border as Title 42 Expires (VIDEO).
• “It Was One Can and Not a Campaign!” – Anheuser-Busch CEO Sidesteps Apology – Makes Embarrassing Excuses in Call to Investors While Addressing Dylan Mulvaney Bud Light Partnership.
• Release of Transgender Nashville Shooter’s Manifesto Delayed Yet Again, Supposedly Because of ‘Pending Litigation’.
• Biden Regime Scheming with Environmentalists to Unleash Backdoor Ban on Hunting and Fishing Across Parts of America.
• ‘Not Even Bud Lite…Lost This Much’: Ratings Showcase the New Normal for Fox News Without Tucker.
• Doctor Launches New Class Action Lawsuit Against Australian Government Over Vaccine Injuries.
• 15-Year-Old Western Michigan High School Athlete Dies Suddenly After Medical Emergency.
  

The Epoch Times:

• China’s Growing Military Influence in Latin America Sparks Concern in US.
• Communist China Seeks to Undermine US on Path to Global Hegemony: Intelligence Director.

Twitter: 

•  @Rasmussen_Poll - Update: "How likely is it that cheating affected the outcome of the 2020 presidential election?" Likely / Not likely: All: 62% / 32% (new record high) Rep: 80% / 16% Dem: 45% / 50% Ind: 64% / 28%.
• @songpinganq - China's skynet now has over 700 million facial recognition surveillance cameras —— half of the world total. In China, CBDC is linked to your Digital ID/face. If you drive too fast, skynet (cameras) will automatically fine you and debit your bank account via Digital Wallet. (video)
• @DocAhmadMalik - Covid was the biggest land grab in terms of wealth, from the average person to the super rich. Billions were spent, of our money. If properly spent a fraction of that amount could have revolutionised & improved everyone's health for good. It was never about our health.
• @stillgray - Doctors are being educated dumber.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 955,352 Reports(+1,937 from prior week) Through April 21st, 2023.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.5 +1.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 78.0 +1.5 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 96.50 USD/Metric Tonne -2.96%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.8 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 50.1 -.05%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.21 -1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.7 -.96%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.23%.

• S&P 500 futures +.29%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.38%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by consumer and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.