Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.75 -2.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 76.0 +.75 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.7 USD/Metric Tonne -1.7%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.9 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 56.0 +1.8%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .00 -4.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.0 +.31%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.14%.

• S&P 500 futures -.07%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.14%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, FANG+ Stock Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.1 -.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .59%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 55.0 +1.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 155.5 -.02%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.74 -.71%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.6 -3.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 105.0 +12.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .95 +2.2%

• NYSE Arms .60 +3.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.4 +.11%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 409.7 -.13%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 415.0 -13.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 102.98 +.18% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 377.5 -.16%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 192.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.58 -1.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 250.25 +.96%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.5 -.41%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.5 basis points -1.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 13.5 basis points +7.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.5 +.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 166.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 710.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 94.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.9 -.03%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.21% -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.9 euros/megawatt-hour +.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.6 -1.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -20.3 -5.7 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 38.0 +1.1 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 227.97 +.25:  Growth Rate +2.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.1 +.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.25% -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .06 +5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.55 -4.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -50.0 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.75% +9.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.66% unch.: CPI YoY +5.19% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 58.5%(-.1 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 47.0%(-4.4 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +99 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -12 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +73 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.8%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Regional Banks -2.0% 2) Telecom -1.5% 3) Road & Rail -.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SAVE, IEP, CVBF, AES, SEM, TEAM, SITM, ACMR, FYBR, MRVL, PLRX, FRO, PENN, TGTX, FOXF, CYRX, USM, SWAV, TSE, TMDX, FRPT, MKSI, HELE, GDOT, MSTR, RIOT, EH, TRUP, TSN and CTLT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) TSN 2) PTEN 3) APO 4) COTY 5) TRUP
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CTLT 2) TUP 3) TSN 4) LPSN 5) MARA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.1%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Cyber Security +1.3% 2) Video Gaming +1.1% 3) Internet +1.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ZS, SIX, NSSC, CVNA, NEP, ENR, SPB, COGT, GRBK and DK
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GRAB 2) TSN 3) FUBO 4) IBRX 5) NRG

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ZS 2) LXU 3) SIX 4) ANIP 5) HNI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (APD)/2.66
• (AMCX)/1.83
• (WHD)/.56
• (DUK)/1.26
• (ELAN)/.29
• (FOXA)/.88
• (HAIN)/.16
• (IGT)/.48
• (J)/1.78
• (LITE)/.78
• (NKLA)/-.30
• (PRGO)/.43
• (TPX)/.51
• (UAA)/.15
• (WRBY)/.04
• (WMG)/.22
• (WE)/-.31
• (WAT)/2.62
  

After the Close: 

• (AFRM)/-.84
• (ABNB)/.14
• (AKAM)/1.32
• (BIRD)/-.25
• (BLNK)/-.43
• (BOOT)/1.45
• (DUOL)/.24
• (EA)/1.31
• (HRB)/4.46
• (TWNK)/.27
• (IAC)/-.82
• (IRBT)/-1.32
• (OXY)/1.25
• (RNG)/.69
• (RIVN)/-1.58
• (TWLO)/.21
• (WYNN)/.00
  

Economic Releases

6:00 am EST

• NFIB Small Business Optimism for April is estimated to fall to 89.7 versus 90.1 in March.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, Australia budget report, US Debt Ceiling meeting, 3Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, BofA Healthcare Conference and the Goldman Industrials/Materials Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -6.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.2 +.9
  
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 50.4% of Issues Advancing, 46.5% Declining
• 38 New 52-Week Highs, 24 New Lows
• 40.1%(+1.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 51.0 +3
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 54.8 +.7%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,227.0 -.24%
• 1-Day Vix 9.8 -30.7%
  
• Vix 17.5 +1.7% 
  
• Total Put/Call .96 +3.2%
• TRIN/Arms .62 +6.9%