Tuesday, May 09, 2023

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.75 +2.0 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 76.75 +.75 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.9 USD/Metric Tonne +1.8%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.8 +.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 55.4 +.8%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.02 -1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.3 -.14%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.14%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.11%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Fears, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Technical Selling, Tech/Medical Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.4 +2.2%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .44%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 55.2 +.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 155.3 -.3%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.74 -.71%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 34.3 +2.8% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 114.0 +12.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .84 -18.5%
  • NYSE Arms .67 -10.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 82.08 +1.2%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 411.80 +.69%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 426.0 +11.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 104.50 +1.5% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 387.14 +2.6%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 193.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.6 +1.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 253.28 +1.5%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.4 -.34%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 23.25 basis points -1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 15.5 basis points +2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.75 -3.75 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 172.0 +6.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 714.0 +4.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 94.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.8 -.19%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.22% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.9 USD/Metric Tonne +1.9%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.0 euros/megawatt-hour -2.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.8 -.8 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -20.3 unch.
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 39.8 +1.8 points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 227.93 -.04:  Growth Rate +2.3% -.1 percentage point, P/E 18.1 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.25% unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .03 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.35 +20.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -50.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.75% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.66% unch.: CPI YoY +5.19% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 58.5%(-2.0 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 47.0%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -2 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +19 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +62 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my industrial/utility sector longs, emerging market shorts and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades:  None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.4%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Semis -1.7% 2) Digital Health -1.6% 3) Computer Services -1.3%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • BRBR, CHH, TSN, TMCI, APD, A, GPRE, KFRC, SWKS, DRS, USM, BNTX, W, LITE, SLVM, AHCO, HSIC, IFF, ACCD, YOU, GFS, WAT, TSE, JKS, HIMS, RPD, HAIN, CERT, WMG, MRVI, CRNC, PYPL, TALO, PRAA and OMH
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) EWC 2) APRN 3) WM 4) SWKS 5) PLTR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) PLUG 2) PYPL 3) LCID 4) FSR 5) DDD
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • Defense +1.0% 2) Oil Service +.8% 3) Construction +.8%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • VYGR, SHLS, NEO, HLIT, JELD, INTA, TH, DVA, SAVA, TCMD, BSY, TREX, PGNY, MCK, TMDX, ATSG, GVA, EPC, CVNA, COCO, HOLX, ZS, J and PINC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) IAG 2) ARRY 3) BEKE 4) MERC 5) EWJ
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) PLTR 2) SHLS 3) GENI 4) HLIT 5) DVA

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BCO)/1.10
  • (COHR)/.82
  • (EBIX)/.19
  • (GDFRX)/-.01
  • (NYT)/.17
  • (PFGC)/.71
  • (RBLX)/-.40
  • (TEVA)/.55
  • (TUP)/.11
  • (VSH)/.56
  • (WEN)/.20
  • (WWW)/.03
After the Close: 
  • (DOX)/1.47
  • (BYND)/-1.02
  • (CAKE)/.59
  • (CR)/.85
  • (JAZZ)/4.22
  • (PAAS)/.02
  • (HOOD)/-.49
  • (STE)/2.15
  • (TTD)/.12
  • (U)/-.02
  • (DIS)/.94

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST
  • The CPI MoM for April is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.1% gain in March.
  • The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in March.
  • The CPI YoY for April is estimated to rise +5.0% versus a +5.0% gain in March.
  • Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for April.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,108,710 barrels versus a -1,281,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,011,860 barrels versus a +1,742,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -821,710 barrels versus a -1,190,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise +.66% versus a -.6% decline the prior week.
2:00 pm EST
  • The Monthly Budget Statement for April is estimated to fall to $235.0B versus $308.2B in March.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China CPI report, 10Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Canaccord Genuity Metals/Mining Conference and the (AB) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • NYSE Volume Running -6.8% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.7 +.5
  • 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
  • 34.2% of Issues Advancing, 62.7% Declining
  • 27 New 52-Week Highs, 56 New Lows
  • 39.0%(-2.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 48.0 -3
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 54.6 -.6%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,318.0 +.2%
  • 1-Day Vix 10.7 -5.8%
  • Vix 17.7 +4.5% 
  • Total Put/Call .77 -25.2%
  • TRIN/Arms .90 +20.0%