Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -3.5% 2) Oil Service -3.1% 3) Regional Banks -1.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PCTY, DVA, EE, SIL, HAL, NICE, ZION, SCPH, WIRE, MOS, SLB, GRBK, NICE, IVZ, UTZ, WIRE, DRD, EE, SSL, TSE, LSCC, COUR, GRBK, CVI, WYNN, SIMO, TSLX, TFC, CVBF, TROX, FCX, PGTI, TECK, BSM, GO, EVRI, PAR, TAK, IDYA, SRPT, PKI, DLO, SCCO, MODG, NTR, BOWL, BOH, RDY, AHCO, G, RBA, UPST, MSTR, HPK, PYCR, DIS, CVNA, ARQT, MANU, RIOT, CUTR, GDS, BYND, BE, CPRX and SONO
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KBH 2) RCL 3) WSM 4) DIS 5) GT
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) IBRX 2) PACW 3) SONO 4) BYND 5) DIS

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.1%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Electric Vehicles +1.2% 2) Video Gaming +.9% 3) Internet +.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• APP, MGNI, GT, ACVA, ENTG, ARCT, U, CRSR, AZTA, TPR, NXT, DV, MRVI, CARG, GOOGL, SOVO, CRL and TSN
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) LBTYA 2) BTG 3) TPR 4) SGML 5) APP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MAXN 2) APP 3) TNK 4) CPA 5) BLDE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (SPB)/-.14

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Import Price Index MoM for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.6% decline in March.
• The Import Price Index ex Petrol MoM for April is estimated to fall -.3% versus a -.6% decline in March.
• The Export Price Index MoM for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.3% decline in March.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Univ. of Mich. Sentiment for May is estimated to fall to 63.0 versus 63.5 in April. 
• Univ. of Mich. 1Y-Infation Expectations for May is estimated to fall to +4.4% versus +4.6% in April.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Jefferson speaking and the Spain CPI report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running +7.5% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.9 -.4
  
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
• 23.6% of Issues Advancing, 72.9% Declining
• 18 New 52-Week Highs, 57 New Lows
• 39.4%(-3.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 45.0 -2
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 52.0 -4.7%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,518.8 +.43%
• 1-Day Vix 11.1 -17.0%
  
• Vix 17.5 +3.2% 
  
• Total Put/Call .94 unch.
• TRIN/Arms 1.05 -25.5%
  

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Global Luxury Home Prices Fall for First Time Since 2009.
• Yellen Takes Aim at Russian Sanctions Evasion at G-7 Gathering. 
• ECB Has ‘Marginal’ Distance to Cover With Rate Hikes, Villeroy Says.
• A Record Number of Canadians Are Trying to Restructure Their Debts.
• Global Finance Chiefs to Plot Escape Routes for World Economy.
• Dollar Slips, US Stock Futures Edge Up After CPI: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Edges Higher With Weaker Dollar and Supply Halts in Focus.
• Topgolf Sinks Most Since 2020 on Concern Golf Boom Is Fading.
• One of Vanguard’s Biggest Credit ETFs Bleeds Record $5.5 Billion.
• Fed Gets Room to Hold in June as Inflation Shows Sign of Cooling.
• Corporate America’s Taste for Buying Back Its Own Stock Is Waning.
• Apple Is Now the Only Major Phone Brand Without a Foldable Model.
• New Calls for Short-Selling Ban Has Experts Defending the Tactic. 
• Short Seller Marc Cohodes Considers Betting Against US Regional Banks.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

Zero Hedge:

• The Censorship-Industrial Complex: Top 50 Organizations To Know.
• Biden Family Tried To Hide Over $10 Million In Foreign Payments: House GOP.
• Why Legacy Media Won't Cover The CIA's Alleged Attempt To Influence The 2020 Election.
• A Third Of US Home Prices Fall In First Quarter As Shelter Costs Peak.
• Texas Lawmakers Advance Bill To Raise Age For Buying Semiautomatic Rifles To 21.
• Oakland Teachers Strike In 5th Day Over Higher Wages, Climate Justice, Homeless Housing, Reparations.
• 'Net Zero' Grid Batteries Alone Would Bankrupt America.
• Feinstein Finally Returns, Restoring Dems' Full Majority And Leftist Judiciary Pipeline.
• US stocks whipsawed but finished mostly higher and treasuries rallied post-CPI - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Range-bound mania.
• FBI Denies Request For Nashville Shooter’s Manifesto, Writings.
• Colorado Teachers’ Union Passes Anti-Capitalist Resolution, Sparking Outcry From Republicans.
• How Much Risk Can Equities Ignore?
• Big Tech & MOVEs.
• Disney Tumbles Below $100 After Paying Subs Slide Following Sharp Price Increase.
• Treasuries rip on CPI and choppy risk appetite - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• CIA Helped Recruit Signers For 'Russian Disinfo' Laptop Letter That Influenced 2020 Election.
• CPI Slip Sparks Market Chaos: Banks & Bond Yields Battered As Rate-Hike Odds Collapse.
• In 'Major Pivot' Ahead Of Title 42 Immigration Catastrophe, Biden Admin Revives Trump-Era Border Policy.

Wall Street Journal:

• The American Home Buyer’s Quandary: Nobody’s Selling.
• Biden Creates Problems, Then Walks Away. The progressive way of governance is that no policy mistake can change—ever.
• We May Be Getting Used to High Inflation, and That’s a Bad Thing.
• Inside New York’s Priciest ZIP Code.
• Ukraine’s Holiest Site Is Battleground in Campaign to Erase Russian Influence.
• Robot Lawn Mowers Are (Finally) Getting Good. But Are They Worth the Price Tag?
• Robinhood to Launch 24-Hour Trading on Weekdays in Stocks and ETFs.

CNBC.com:

• How Hyundai plans to become one of the world’s top three EV makers by 2030.
• Here’s everything Google just announced: A $1,799 folding phone, A.I. in Search and more.
• The streaming wars are over, and it’s time for media to figure out what’s next.
• Here’s the inflation breakdown for April 2023, in one chart.
• Carl Icahn’s company stock falls 15% after prosecutors seek financial information.
• Shares of Unity pop on revenue beat, rosy forecast.
  

MarketWatch:

• These banks have high exposure to loans secured by office properties. Here’s how their stocks have performed.
• Cannabis banking bill ‘faces an uphill climb in this Congress,’ analysts warn before Senate hearing.
• Wall Street cheers latest inflation report. But some see trouble ahead for stocks.
• Disney stock falls as Disney+ subscribers decline amid push to lose less money in streaming.
• FDA advisers vote unanimously in favor of over-the-counter birth-control pill.

Newsmax:

• DHS Planning to Release Some Migrants Into US Without Tracking.
• House GOP: Biden Family, Friends Got Over $10M From Foreigners, Companies.

Fox News:

• FBI responds to Republicans' demand for document on alleged Biden bribery scheme.
• Anheuser-Busch stock takes another punch as company reels from Mulvaney 'crisis'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BREAKING: FBI Refuses to Turn Over Key Document on Joe Biden and Foreign National Bribery Scheme.
• Dianne Feinstein Returns to Senate in Wheelchair, ‘Experiencing Vision/Balance Impairments’ (VIDEO).
• Do Federal Election Commission Policies & Website Facilitate Money Laundering?
• JUST IN: Texas Army Sgt. Who Killed BLM Protester in Self Defense During George Floyd Riots Sentenced to 25 YEARS in Prison By Radical Austin Judge.
• BREAKING: Texas National Guard Soldiers with Riot Gear Arrive at Major Illegal Crossing in Brownsville, Texas Ahead of Title 42 Expiration (VIDEO).
• Mayorkas Again Claims US Border is Safe and Secure After 6 Million Illegal Aliens Cross Over Open Border on Biden’s Watch – A COMPLETE LIE (VIDEO).
• University of Georgia Football Team Turns Down Joe Biden’s White House Invitation.
• Nebraska High School Star Athlete Dies Unexpectedly After Collapsing During Track Practice.

The Epoch Times:

• ‘Calamitous Collaboration’: Outrage Grows Over NIH’s Renewal of Grant Giving Millions to Wuhan Lab-Linked EcoHealth
• Beijing Ramps Up Repression of Faith, Labeling Believers as Carriers of ‘Thought Viruses’: US Religious Freedom Official

Twitter: 

• @AllBiteNoBark88 - These are the responses from the AI Bing Chatbot to a Human, after the Human threatened to Hack it. READ CAREFULLY. We are all about to be blackmailed & threatened Digital Prisoners
• @JeremyREdfernFL - "The Mexican drug cartels have more say about what goes on at the southern border than our own US government does. You have a situation where there is no rule of law, and that is not what we want in a constitutional republic." - @GovRonDeSantis.
• @StockMKTNEws - Where inflation is and where it isn’t. (graph)
• @WallSTreetSilv - Member of Congress just said the quiet part out loud. "They'll accuse the U.S. government of making money out of thin air. Maybe we do, but we're the U.S. government." (video)
• @zerohedge - another day, another record low in the nasdaq advance/decline line. (graph)
• @TheChiefNerd - Alabama AG Steve Marshall Says 'ESG is a Clear & Present Danger' "An unelected cabal of global elites is using ESG to hijack our capitalist system, capture corporations, and threaten hard-earned dollars of American workers." (video)
• @charliebilello - US wage growth has failed to keep pace with rising consumer prices for a record 25 consecutive months. (graph)
• @Sino_Market - Resident population growth in #Shenzhen, #China's digital powerhouse, turned negative for the first time in the past 40 years. Kindergarten enrollment in Shenzhen fell 8.8% y/y to the lowest level in a decade. The outflow is not a good sign for the #realestate market. (graph)
• @jathorpmfm - Look at this email from the HOSPITAL ADMINISTRATION to ALL NURSES in the women’s healthcare line of service. 40+sigma surge in stillbirths in central California but only after jab mandates. Worse in Canada w 3 other whistleblower facilities.
• @LauraLoomer -  MUST WATCH: I confronted @maricopacounty Supervisor Bill Gates
  @billgatesaz today at the Spy Museum in DC where CEIR hosted their Soros affiliated & Zuckerberg funded election summit to discuss the 2024 election. Gates calls himself a “Republican”. (video)
• @Jkylebass - China emits more greenhouse gases THAN THE ENTIRE DEVELOPED WORLD COMBINED. (graph)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 957,953 Reports(+2,601 from prior week) Through April 28th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.0 -2.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 72.0 -4.75 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.4 USD/Metric Tonne -1.8%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.9 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 54.5 -.22%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.07 -4.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.7 -.26%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.19%.

• S&P 500 futures +.20%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.15%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Regional Bank Contagion Concerns, Global Growth Worries, Financial/Commodity Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.1 -3.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.24%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 54.3 -1.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 154.3 -.6%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.59 -.72%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.8 -2.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 120.0 +6.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .88 -3.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.54 +73.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 82.08 -.01%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 415.15 +.70%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 425.0 -1.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 103.15 -1.3% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 392.62 +1.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 191.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.5 unch.
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 251.66 -.92%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.4 -.13%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.25 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 11.75 basis points -3.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.25 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 171.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 715.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 94.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.9 +.15%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.22% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.75 USD/Metric Tonne -2.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.0 euros/megawatt-hour -2.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.1 -.7 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -21.2 -.9 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 39.6 -.2 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 227.84 -.09:  Growth Rate +2.2% -.1 percentage point, P/E 18.1 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.24% -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.04 -3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.40 -5.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -45.75 basis points (2s/10s) +4.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.75% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.65% -1.0 basis point: CPI YoY +4.14% -105.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 54.7%(-2.7 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 51.1%(+5.0 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -162 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -19 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +13 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/utility sector longs, emerging market shorts and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long