Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -16.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.0 unch.
  
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 63.0% of Issues Advancing, 33.4% Declining
• 24 New 52-Week Highs, 36 New Lows
• 40.6%(+3.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 54.5 +3.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,500.4 -.12%
• 1-Day Vix 9.7 -31.6%
  
• Vix 17.3 +1.8% 
  
• Total Put/Call .93 +3.3%
• TRIN/Arms .82 -25.5%
  

Monday Watch

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.5% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.25 -.25 basis point
  
• China Sovereign CDS 71.75 -1.0 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.7 USD/Metric Tonne +2.3%
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 53.8 +2.0%.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.08 -6.0 basis points. 
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.7 +.9%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.07%.
• S&P 500 futures -.22%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.28%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Popular China Stock Trade Runs Into Geopolitical, Growth Risks.
• Why It’s So Hard for China to Shake the ‘Uninvestable’ Tag.
• Erdogan Promises to Transfer Power Peacefully If He Loses Ballot.
• Fed’s Jefferson Says Core Inflation Progress ‘Discouraging’.
• The Fed’s Iron-Grip Over Wall Street Trading Is Finally Easing.
• Hedge Fund Trade With a History of Blowups Is Back Again.
• US Urges Recall of 67 Million Air Bag Parts in Safety Mess.
• Gas Drilling Collapses in US at Fastest Rate in Seven Years. 
• California’s Newsom Sees Budget Deficit Deepening to $32 Billion.
• Manhattan Drivers May Pay Congestion Tax as Soon as April 2024.
• Mom-and-Pop Landlords Struggle as Higher Rates and Regulations Bite.
• Lyft CEO Says Company ‘Open to Offers,’ But Not Pursuing a Sale.
• The Crypto Winter Cost True Believers More Than Their Money.
• US Bank Lending Retreated During Week of First Republic Failure.
• Soros Slashed Rivian Stake After 90% Drop From Peak, Exits Tesla.

Zero Hedge:

• There's A Greater-Than-50% Chance AI Wipes Out All Of Humanity By 2050, One Advisory Finds. 
• Pentagon Officials Acknowledge Uncertainty In Defending Against Hypersonic Missiles.
• Biden EPA Announces Toughest-Ever Rules For Power Plant Emissions.
• The Supreme Court Might Curb The 'Deep State' By Overruling The Chevron Case.
• California's Deficit Deepens To $32 Billion (14-Year-High)... And That's Before Reparations.
• The Voter Registration Machine Flipping The States Blue.
• Shaq Argues He Was Never Properly Served, Asks Judge To Throw Out FTX-Related Lawsuit Against Him.
• Why The Economic War Against Russia Has Failed.
• Anderson Cooper: 'You Have Every Right Never To Watch CNN Again' After Trump Town Hall.
• It's Official: Top NBCUni Ad Exec And World Economic Forum Taskforce Chair Is Twitter's New CEO.
• "It Scares Me To Death": More Ohio Families Turn To Food Banks Amid Cost-of-Living Crisis.
• US Bank Deposit Outflows Continue, Small Bank Loans Collapse.
• Stocks and Treasuries grind lower on stagflationary Michigan survey - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Dollar Soars As Debt-Ceiling Doubts Monkeyhammer Markets.
• CTAs Are Now Selling.
• Court Blocks Biden Admin Policy Of Releasing Illegal Immigrants Into US Without Court Dates, As Title 42 Expires.
• Liquidity, downside convexity and hot short volatility sellers.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Risks Breaching Debt Ceiling in First Weeks of June.
• The Navy SEAL Who Went to Ukraine Because He Couldn’t Stop Fighting.
• Charging Daniel Penny, the Subway Samaritan. The 24-year-old veteran faces a second-degree manslaughter charge after he intervened to subdue a mentally ill man behaving erratically.
• Automotive Tech Billionaire to Acquire Majority Stake in Forbes.
• The TV Ad Market Was Already Looking Bleak. Then the Writers’ Strike Happened. 

CNBC:

• U.S. can avoid default in July if Treasury can make it through cash crunch: CBO.
• Alzheimer’s treatment Leqembi could cost Medicare up to $5 billion per year, study estimates.
• U.S. aims to turn middle-American cities into new tech hubs with $500 million investment.
• Why the U.S. government, the country’s largest employer, wants to ban the salary history question.
• Goldman Sachs created an A.I.-powered social media startup for corporate use.
• Fed Governor Philip Jefferson named as new vice chair to succeed Lael Brainard.

MarketWatch.com:

• The S&P 500 is top-heavy with tech. Here’s what that says about future stock-market returns.

NewsMax:

• Uncertainty, Disarray Cloud Biden Border Policy
• Gov. Abbott to Newsmax: Texas Deploys More Forces to Border.
• Enes Freedom: 'Do Not Apologize' to China.

Fox News:

• White House rages after federal judge's move on release of migrants without court dates.
• Newsom announces $32 billion deficit, $10 billion more than previously estimated.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• “I Would Shoot Him” – Radical Leftist Group with Ties to Elected Virginia Democrats Threatens Parents for Bravely Objecting to School Board’s Marxist Agenda (VIDEO).
• ERIC Voter Registration Non-Profit Loses 25% of Members. Virginia Now Out! – Gutless NPR Blames Gateway Pundit with Their Typical Smears and Lies.
• Robert Kennedy, Jr. Bravely Points Out the Connection Between SSRI Antidepressant Use and Mass Shootings – Something Trump Also Touched On in His CNN Town Hall (VIDEO).
• MUST READ: The Anatomy of a Boondoggle – The Green New Deal vs. Family Farms.
• Chicago Residents Who Voted for Biden in 2020 Outraged Over Plan to Release Illegal Immigrants Into Their Community.
• Karine Jean-Pierre Claims Mass Releases of Illegals Aren’t Happening – Here is Video Proof She is Lying.
• “RIP Twitter” Tops Twitter’s Trending List After Elon Musk Appoints WEF Executive Chair as New CEO.
• WAYNE ROOT: Open Border Catastrophe is the Cloward-Piven Plan to Destroy America That I Learned at Columbia University – Alongside My Classmate Barack Obama.
• Major American Retailer Puts Wokeness on Full Display: Pride Books for Kids, Rainbow Items for Babies.
• Union President Urges Teachers to Erase and Hide Their Social Media History.
• Republican Ohio Lawmakers Advance Bill Banning Biological Men From Girls’ and Women’s Sports.

The Epoch Times: 

• 3 in 4 Canadians Hold Negative View of China: Survey.
• Federal Agents Raid Two US Facilities of China’s Jinko Solar.
• Basketball Player Dwight Howard Apologizes to China for Referring to Taiwan as a Country.

Twitter:

• @Risemelbourne - Blackrock CEO Larry Fink...."Behaviours are going to have to change, You have to 𝙁𝙤𝙧𝙘𝙚 𝘽𝙚𝙝𝙖𝙫𝙞𝙤𝙪𝙧𝙨 and at Blackrock we are 𝙁𝙤𝙧𝙘𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝘽𝙚𝙝𝙖𝙫𝙞𝙤𝙪𝙧𝙨....
• @TPostMilliennial - A growing encampment of migrants in Matamoros, Mexico—across from Brownsville, Texas—as Title 42 is set to expire. (video) Migrants in Brownsville, Texas, open packets from DHS and use government-issued cell phones after processing. Some of their court dates reportedly won't be until 2027. (video)
• @ImMeme0 - Meet Linda Yaccarino, the new CEO of Twitter. In 2020 interview, Yaccarino praised Jeff Shell and Brian Roberts, her bosses for taking the right steps to “fight social justice and equality”. (video) A bit more on Yaccarino… (video)
• @amuse - Biden’s border… El Paso… (video)
• @TexasLindsay - BREAKING: The New Female Twitter CEO @elonmusk is reportedly talking to is Linda Yaccarino, who according to LinkedIn is currently the Executive Chair for the World Economic Forum—and was Chairman of Advertising at NBC Universal.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 957,953 Reports(+2,601 from prior week) Through April 28th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 4,117.1 -.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 33,2944 -1.3%

• NASDAQ 12,286.2 +.26%

• Russell 2000 1,736.79 -1.4%

• NYSE FANG+ 6,350.9 +3.0% 
• Roundhill Meme Stock ETF 30.0 -.43%
  

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 13454 -2.4%

• Wilshire 5000 41,018.93 -.50%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,494..23 +.22%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,47785 -1.4%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 803.6 -.08%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,125.47 +1.32%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,124493 +.37%

• Transports 13,760.4 -2.6%

• Utilities 957.80 -.52%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 79.55 +.68%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 38.69 -2.0%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,467.8 +.18%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 922.08 +.27%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 452,940 +.12%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.0 +12.7%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -212 +432
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -25.5 +11.0%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 214,845 -9.1%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,908,299 +4.5%

• Total Put/Call .89 -5.4%

• OEX Put/Call 1.21 +.68%

• ISE Sentiment 109.0 +9.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms 1.15 +108.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 53.1 -2.9%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.01 -6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index -4.54 -3.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 17.1 +2.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .89% -39.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.0 -2.3%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.58 -3.3%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.8 +.71%

• Smart Money Flow Index 13,463.05 +1.6%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  65.2 -1.8
  

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $5.328 Trillion +.4%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$15.603 Million

• AAII % Bulls 29.4 +22.0%

• AAII % Bears 41.2 -8.2%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 257.92 -1.4%

• Crude Oil 70.15/bbl. -1.74%

• Reformulated Gasoline 242.67 +1.9%

• Natural Gas 2.28 +7.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.8 euros/megawatt-hour -8.6%
  

• Heating Oil 230.55 -.9% 
• Newcastle Coal 160.1 (1,000/metric ton) -5.8%
  

• Gold 2,012.48 -.08%
• Silver 23.98 -6.4%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 413.18 -5.2%

• Copper 372.5 -4.3%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 377.0 USD/Metric Tonne unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.5 USD/Metric Tonne -3.2%

• Lumber  339.9 -5.5%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,550.47 -.9%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 395.0 USD/Short Ton unch.
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast +2.75% +9.0 basis points
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate (graph)
  
• US Recession Within 3 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.6% +12.0%
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 1.03 +27.2%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 131.3 n/a
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(457 of 500 reporting) -3.9% n/a

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 227.95 +.23:  Growth Rate +2.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.1 +.3 
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.23% -3.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) -2.1% n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 198.52 n/a: Growth Rate +28.2% n/a, P/E 32.4 n/a
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.0 -13.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -21.1 -6.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.3 -5.6 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(-11.5 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.75-5.0%, 82.3%(-9.2 percentage points) chance of no change, 17.7%(+9.2 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.25-5.50% on 6/14
  

• US Dollar Index 102.71 +1.4%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,689.80 -.29%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 26,315.2 -9.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 154.34 -.73%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -55.0 -7.25 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.46% +2.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.466 Trillion -.01% 
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $4.621 Billion -90.9%
  

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 73.04 +2.9%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 183.11 +2.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 191.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22.14 -14.9%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 71.59 -5.8%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 226.26 +.21%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 62.17 +1.6%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 4338 -3.9%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.3 -1.1%

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.3% -20.0 basis points
  
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +5.3% -70.0 basis points
  
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +7.6% -90.0 basis points
  
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +5.2% -50.0 basis points
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.65% -1.0 basis point: CPI YoY +4.14% -105.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19% -3.0 basis points

• TED Spread 15.75 +6.25 basis points
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.25 -4.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.75 -2.0 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 80.9 -.24%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 263.0 -1.2% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 437.0 +9.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 102.18 -1.5%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 386.13 +.7%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 248.58 +.38%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 173.0 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 708.0 -1.0 basis point
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .95 unch.
  

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -4.1% unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,146.4 +.20%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 245,250 +2.5%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 49.9 +.22%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.84% +5.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 227,800 +6.3%

• Weekly Retail Sales +1.3% -10.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -13.0% -9.0 percentage points
  
• Box Office Weekly Gross $177.6M +15.3%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.54/gallon -.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,608 +4.1%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 955.93 -1.2%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 -7.7%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 43.4 -5.5%

• Rail Freight Carloads 240,141 -2.2%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,585,633 +26.5%
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -.1%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -1.9%

Leading Sectors

• Cyber Security +1.7%

• Internet +1.6%
• Electric Vehicles +.8%
  

• Alt Energy +.5%
  

• Video Gaming +.4%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Agriculture -3.3%
  

• Banks -4.3%
  

• Oil Service -4.4%

• Gold & Silver -5.2%
  

• Regional Banks -6.1%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (14)

• FSLR, TPIC, ARRY, NXT, TH,, VYGR, MRVI, SIBN, MTZ, MRCY, FLNC, CNXC, ENPH and GT
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (22)

• MODG, SONO, SPWR, MET, CTLT, PYPL,, , NTR, CPRX, BE, COHR, GDS, GEN, ABNB, SANM, TSE, ARQT, ACLX, BOH, SPHR and HROW
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Rising Consumer Inflation Expectations, Dollar Strength, Consumer Discretionary/Bank Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.6 +4.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .73%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 52.6 +4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 154.4 +.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.9 +1.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.5 +2.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 117.0 +14.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .89 unch.

• NYSE Arms 1.31 +22.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.2 +.53%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 421.47 +.64%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 437.0 +12.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 101.52 -2.4% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 383.36 -2.8%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 191.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.41 -.73%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 249.06 +1.18%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.3 -.42%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.25 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 15.75 basis points -1.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.5 +1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 172.0 +7.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 708.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 95.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 -.08%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.16% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.7 USD/Metric Tonne +2.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.8 euros/megawatt-hour -6.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.0 -6.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -21.1 unch.
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.3 -3.8 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(457 of 500 reporting) -3.9% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 227.95 +.12:  Growth Rate +2.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 18.1 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.23% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) -2.1% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 198.52 +.89: Growth Rate +28.2% -80.0 basis points, P/E 32.0 -.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.04 +6.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.54 -3.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -5.75 basis points (2s/10s) -5.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.75% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.65% unch.: CPI YoY +4.14% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20 +4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 60.5%(+6.3 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 47.4%(-2.5 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +117 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -72 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +15 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long