Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 4,462.5 -.18%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 35,303.8 +.58%

• NASDAQ 13,650.0 -1.9%

• Russell 2000 1,925.7 -1.6%

• NYSE FANG+ 7,542.4 -3.4% 
• Roundhill Meme Stock ETF 37.9 -5.9%
  

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 162.4 -5.4%

• Wilshire 5000 44,634.8 -.52%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,752.8 -.85%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,581.8 +.31%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 785.21 +.28%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,225.05 -2.1%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,642.7 -2.94%

• Transports 16,219.1 -.65%

• Utilities 993.4 +.84%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 85.3 -.66%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 39.6 -2.6%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 192.86 +.09%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 103.47 -.23%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 467,600 -.1%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.9 +70.3%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -99 -1
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -29.4 -4.7%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 241,859 +7.4%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,752,072 +.49%

• Total Put/Call .97 -11.8%

• OEX Put/Call 1.69 -14.8%

• ISE Sentiment 107.0 -1.0 point
  

• NYSE Arms .87 -53.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 71.6 +3.0%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .39 +23.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index -.08 -8.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 15.1 -9.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .84% -20.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 22.1 -1.4%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.0 -3.6%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.97 -.56%

• Smart Money Flow Index 13,519.1 -1.8%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  65.5 -13.0
  

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $5.530 Trillion +.26%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$2.601 Million

• AAII % Bulls 44.7 -8.8%

• AAII % Bears 25.5 +19.7%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 279.96 +.18%

• Crude Oil 83.1/bbl. +.9%

• Reformulated Gasoline 295.1 +6.0%

• Natural Gas 2.77 +5.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.3 euros/megawatt-hour +21.7%
  

• Heating Oil 311.4 +2.6% 
• Newcastle Coal 154.0 (1,000/metric ton) +8.5%
  

• Gold 1,913.4 -1.25%
• Silver 22.7 -3.6%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 413.7 -1.8%

• Copper 371.60 -3.0%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 359.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.4%

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.9%

• CME Lumber  494.50 -.40%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,574.75 -.51%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 313.5 USD/Short Ton -1.3%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast +4.12% +9.0 basis points
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate (graph)
  
• US Recession Within 3 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 27.6% -2.1 percentage points
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 1.42 -12.4%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 61.0 +13.5%
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(455 of 500 reporting) -8.3% n/a

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 234.09 n/a:  Growth Rate +7.0% n/a, P/E 19.1 n/a
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.14% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +17.0% n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.54 n/a: Growth Rate +41.1% n/a, P/E 32.9 n/a
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 73.7 -4.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -83.3 +10.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.6 +5.2 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(-0.0 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 5.0-5.25%, 88.5%(+1.5 percentage points) chance of no change, 11.5%(-1.5 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.5-5.75% on 9/20
  

• US Dollar Index 102.9 +.59%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,682.8 -.17%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 29,323.5 +1.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.8 +1.9%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -73.5 +.25 basis point
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.16% +13.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.171 Trillion +.02% 
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $2.131 Billion +1.8%
  

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 39.5 +11.8%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 177.3 +1.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 163.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.7 -.9%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 62.8 +13.4%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 171.6 -1.3%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 56.11 +.79%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.6 +11.8%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.39 -.99%

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.0% -.1 percentage point
  
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +4.1% unch.
  
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +4.0% -.9 percentage point
  
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +4.0% +.1 percentage point
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.2% unch.: CPI YoY +3.8% +.4 percentage point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37% unch.

• TED Spread 21.0 -2.5 basis points
  
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.0 -2.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.75 +2.0 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 66.4 -.8%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 189.0 -.41% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 353.0 +1.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 81.27 +1.1%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 248.92 -6.1%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 202.07 +.59%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 174.0 +5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 746.0 -4.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .68 unch.
  

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -3.6% +40.0 basis points
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,171.6 +.5%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 231,000 +1.2%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.1% -10.0 basis points
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 48.6 -1.1%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.46% +7.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 194,500 -3.1%

• Weekly Retail Sales -.2% +10.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -4.0% -1.0 percentage point
  
• Box Office Weekly Gross YoY $116.6M -13.4%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.84/gallon +.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,137.0 +.09%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 874.6 +1.18%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 39.4 +10.1%

• Rail Freight Carloads 249,739 -1.3%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,648,442 +10.2%
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +.3%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -2.1%

Leading Sectors

• Pharma +6.3%

• Telecom +5.9%
• Energy +3.5%
  

• Oil Service +1.8%
  

• Construction +1.7%
  

Lagging Sectors

• AI/Robotics -4.2%
  

• Semis -4.6%
  

• Digital Health -5.1%

• Alt Energy -5.8%
  

• Disk Drives -9.9%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (10)

• INOD, APLS, AVDL, NTRA, UBS, NWS, CCOI, NWSA, FLO and APP
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (11)

• NVEI, PODD, AMX, SAFE, DOCS, GPCR, AVTA, PENN, FUTU, SMCI and MAXN
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Escalating China Economy Worries, Rising Long-Term Rates, Dollar Strength, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.4 -3.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .84%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 71.5 +2.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.7 -.16%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.97 +.67%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 22.1 -.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 105.0 +24.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .92 -13.2%

• NYSE Arms .87 -5.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.7 -.24%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 332.1 +.01%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 353.0 +5.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 81.5 +1.2% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 237.5 -.92%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 163.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.8 +3.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 202.8 +1.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.4 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.75 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 20.75 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.75 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 175.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 746.0 -11.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 68.0 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.5 -.3%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.43% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.3 euros/megawatt-hour  -4.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 73.7 -.7 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -83.3 +1.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.6 -4.4 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(455 of 500 reporting) -8.3%  -.1 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 234.09 +.09:  Growth Rate +7.0% unch., P/E 19.1 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.14% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +17.0% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.54 +.54: Growth Rate +41.1% +.3 percentage point, P/E 32.5 -.6
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .37 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.08 +4.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -72.75 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +4.12% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.23% unch.: CPI YoY +3.81% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 66.1%(-3.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Dec. 13th meeting: 62.5%(-2.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +22 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -135 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +69 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my medical/utility/commodity sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.5%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Semis -2.5% 2) Electric Vehicles -2.2% 3) Digital Health -1.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PODD, GPCR, BUR, YETI, AMX, BLFS, RAMP, HELE, HSAI, BABA, JKS, LI, JD, BILI, PENN, AVTA, VTYX, BZ, DQ, FUTU, SMCI and MAXN
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ASHR 2) VNQ 3) IAU 4) SOXX 5) BAX
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CANO 2) MAXN 3) GDS 4) CYAN 5) ILMN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.3%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Energy +1.4% 2) Oil Service +1.4% 3) Construction +.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• INOD, IONQ, APLS, EBIX, SAGE, PX, ARLO, DKNG, SPB, JBI, CCOI, NTRA, NWS, CRGY, APP, NWSA, BROS, TGTX, DNUT, ENS, SRPT, FLO and OXY
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ABCM 2) DB 3) LVS 4) RGTI 5) DBX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) RGTI 2) IONQ 3) EVLV 4) SHCO 5) SVV
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (JKS)/11.48
• (ERJ)/NA

After the Close: 

• (ALC)/.64
  

Economic Releases  

• None of note

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German Wholesale Prices report could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running +7.7% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.0 -.4
  
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 54.6% of Issues Advancing, 42.0% Declining
• 22 New 52-Week Highs, 25 New Lows
• 53.0%(+1.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 53.0 -5.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 71.1 +2.5%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,038.2 -.41%
• 1-Day Vix 11.9 -22.0%
  
• Vix 15.5 -2.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .89 -16.0%
• TRIN/Arms .73 -20.8%