Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases 

• None of note
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Jefferson speaking, Fed's Barr speaking and the China Trade Balance report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST (Bond market closed for Columbus Day)
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -5.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.5 -.4
  
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 40.3% of Issues Advancing, 56.8% Declining
• 13 New 52-Week Highs, 302 New Lows
• 32.1%(-1.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 26.0 +1.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 70.7 +.3%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,120.1 +.72%
  
• 1-Day Vix 14.5 -25.6%
  
• Vix 18.4 -.5%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.06 -18.5%
• TRIN/Arms .74 -12.9%
  

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Diminishing US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, European Debt Angst, Technical Selling, Alt Energy/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.7 +.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .66% -16.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 71.1 -1.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 166.6 -.09%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.9 +.11%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 27.4 -.94% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 90.0 +10.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.24 -22.0%

• NYSE Arms .89 -14.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 77.54 +.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 365.92 +1.8%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 376 +8
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 101.3 +3.49% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 325.35 +1.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 201.0 basis points +7.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.3 +1.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 238.8 +1.04%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.64 +.04%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.25 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 19.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -29.5 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 181.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 913.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 83.0 +2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.2 -.11%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.49% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 114.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.24%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.2 euros/megawatt-hour -5.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 50.5 +.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -47.8 +.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.4 -.1 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(20 of 500 reporting) +3.4% +2.0 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 239.98 +.10:  Growth Rate +9.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.7 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.19% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 265.06 +.30: Growth Rate +59.9% +.2 percentage point, P/E 28.0 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .00 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.20 -1.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve -30.75 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +4.87% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.73% unch.: CPI YoY +3.69% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 67.2%(+2.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st meeting: 64.1%(+2.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -25 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -172 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +151 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my transport/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
  

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for Sept. is estimated to fall to 170K versus 187K in Aug.
• The Unemployment Rate is estimated to fall to 3.7% versus 3.8% in Aug.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in Aug.
• The Labor Force Participation Rate for Sept. is estimated at 62.8% versus 62.8% in Aug.
  

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for Aug. is estimated to rise to $11.7B versus $10.39B in July.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Waller speaking and the German Factory Orders report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -16.4% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.9 +.8
  
• 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
• 30.3% of Issues Advancing, 66.3% Declining
• 4 New 52-Week Highs, 138 New Lows
• 32.6%(-.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 25.0 +1.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 69.0 -4.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,878.2 -.4%
  
• 1-Day Vix 14.3 -9.3%
  
• Vix 19.4 +4.4%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.22 -23.3%
• TRIN/Arms 1.14 +9.6%
  

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.0 +4.0 basis points

• China Sovereign CDS 88.5 +.75 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 115.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.3 +.03%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 73.0 +.8%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .00 -1.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.9 +.34%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.17%.

• S&P 500 futures -.10%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.12%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.