Wednesday, February 07, 2024

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:   

Zero Hedge:

Wall Street Journal:

TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

X:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.5 +1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 63.0 +.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 128.2 USD/Metric Tonne +2.5%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.5 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 61.5 -.6%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.6 -.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.17%
  • S&P 500 futures -.04%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates, Technical Buying, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.9 -.9%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .40 -20.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 61.8 +1.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 172.3 +.3%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.1 -1.0%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.5 -1.2% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 149.0 unch.
  • Total Put/Call .88 +14.3%
  • NYSE Arms 1.23 +40.0% 
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$262.9M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.3 -.52%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 318.57 -2.1%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 338 +5
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.3 +.9% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 224.0 +2.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 157.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.4 -.6%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 178.35 -.08%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 125.6 +1.1%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.5+.02%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -14.0 basis points -.25 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 7.75 basis points +1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.5 -1.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 150.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 851.0 -7.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 70.0 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.5 -.17%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 126.7 USD/Metric Tonne +1.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.2 euros/megawatt-hour -1.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 43.5 +.6 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 20.6 -1.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.2 -.5 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(285 of 500 reporting) +4.2% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 245.02 +.04:  Growth Rate +10.7% unch., P/E 20.4 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.34% -6.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +44.2% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 302.81 +.52: Growth Rate +42.0% +.3 percentage point, P/E 32.0 +.7
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.02 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.10 +40.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -32.0 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
  • US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +3.4% -.8 percentage point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 61.2% +1.6 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for May 1st FOMC meeting: 56.7%(+1.3 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 12th meeting: 52.4%(+1.2 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +205 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -60 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +121 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/utility sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -1.2% 2) Biotech -1.1% 3) Digital Health -1.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • VOYA, REXR, TTE, FRSH, AMRK, RITM, DB, FLNG, DAY, AMGN, BABA, HRB, AEIS, TGNA, EQNR, NYT, VREX, NXST, MDGL, INSP, ZLAB, BERY, MRCY, MRCY, FDMT, SBGI, VSTS, CRNC, VSAT, KREF, TGI, PERI and SNAP
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) HLF 2) FUBO 3) VLY 4) BXMT 5) SNAP
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) FUBO 2) SNAP 3) SHCO 4) PERI 5) GTN
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +1.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Cyber Security +1.9% 2) Restaurants +1.9% 3) Software +1.8%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • ENPH, XPO, SONO, CRTO, CRUS, GPRE, AZEK, NOVA, SEDG, SLAB, OI, GFF, EMR, IMNM, RGNX, RBLX, CRC, TREX, SEMR, CG, YUMC, GOGO, PLTR, CSL, COHR, WFRD, LQDA, PRU, TENB, F, CMRE, MOR, ZIMV, ZWS, CDW, FN, XYL, CFLT, SIMO, LLY, MANU, IEX and SPOT
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) HLF 2) DB 3) CMG 4) VFC 5) NYCB
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) CRUS 2) EMR 3) SONO 4) ENPH 5) XPO

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (MT)/-2.25
  • (AZN)/.74
  • (BAX)/.86
  • (BWA)/.95
  • (COP)/2.09
  • (DUK)/1.53
  • (FTS)/.53
  • (HOG)/.03
  • (HSY)/1.95
  • (ICE)/1.29
  • (ITT)/1.34
  • (K)/.74
  • (MAS)/.66
  • (PM)/1.45
  • (RL)/3.57
  • (SNA)/4.66
  • (SWI)/.21
  • (SAVE)/-1.42
  • (TROW)/1.62
  • (TPR)/1.46
  • (TPX)/.54
  • (THC)/1.60
  • (TDG)/6.41
  • (UAA)/.11
  • (ZBH)/2.15
After the Close: 
  • (AFRM)/-.72
  • (BILL)/.40
  • (BYD)/1.47
  • (NET)/.12
  • (CPRI)/1.73
  • (EXPE)/1.67
  • (FE)/.60
  • (ILMN)/.01
  • (LEG)/.27
  • (MHK)/1.86
  • (PINS)/.51
  • (TTWO)/.72
  • (TEX)/1.39
  • (BTU)/1.40
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to fall to 220K versus 224K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1876K versus 1898K prior.
10:00 am EST
  • Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.3% versus unch. in Nov.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Barkin speaking, 30Y T-Bond auction, Guggenheim Helathcare Biotech Conference, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (FFIV) business update, (TSN) annual meeting and the (BZH) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +37.5% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 7.4 -1.2
  • 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
  • 45.2% of Issues Advancing, 52.1% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.44 +63.6%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$215.1M
  • 131 New 52-Week Highs, 25 New Lows
  • 57.5% (-2.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 6.0 +3.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 61.5 +1.0%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 137.8 +.8%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,522.3 +.9%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 74.0 (Greed) +1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 9.8 -.9%
  • Vix 13.1 +.1%
  • Total Put/Call .89 +15.6%