Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 5,024.6 +1.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 38,669.6 +.1%

• NASDAQ 15,985.3 +2.4%

• Russell 2000 2,005.0 +2.4%

• NYSE FANG+ 9,894.8 +3.2% 
• Solactive Roundhill Meme Stock Index 390.9 +5.5%
  

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 156.6 +6.7%

• Wilshire 5000 50,070.4 +1.6%

• Russell 1000 Growth 3,3.16.3 +2.6%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,642.3 -.1%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 775.2 -1.3%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 139.7 +1.7%
  

• NYSE Technology 4,746.9 +3.6%

• Transports 16,207.7 +2.6%

• Utilities 834.6 -2.1%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 89.8 -2.1%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 39.6 +2.4%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 196.2 +.3%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 107.1 -.2%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 479,172 -.16%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.8 +42.1%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 676 +436
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -24.1 -3.1%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 196,664 +6.9%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,747,660 +6.0%

• Total Put/Call .78 -25.7%

• OEX Put/Call 2.92 -6.5%

• ISE Sentiment 162.0 +13.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms 1.81 +56.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 61.5 +6.0%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.08 +9.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index .81 +16.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 12.8 -7.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .43 -63.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 17.1 -12.9%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.49 -4.2%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.88 -4.7%

• Smart Money Flow Index 15,682.3 +4.1%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  93.8 +6.4
  

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $6.018 Trillion +.3%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$5.903 Million

• AAII % Bulls 49.0 -.2%

• AAII % Bears 22.6 -7.8%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 78.0 (Extreme Greed) +11.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 273.57 +2.2%

• Crude Oil 76.58/bbl. +6.1%

• Reformulated Gasoline 233.3 +9.1%

• Natural Gas 1.85 -11.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.1 euros/megawatt-hour -8.1%
  

• Heating Oil 295.34 +10.8% 
• Newcastle Coal 125.0 (1,000/metric ton) +5.5%
  

• Gold 2,024.5 -.7%
• Silver 22.56 -.5%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 398.60 -2.5%

• Copper 368.45 -3.5%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 416.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.72%

• China Iron Ore Spot 128.3 USD/Metric Tonne +1.8%

• CME Lumber  552.0 -1.1%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,497.6 +.15%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 315.0 USD/Short Ton -.79%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q Forecast +3.4% -.8 percentage point
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate (graph)
  
• US Recession Within 3 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 30.0% -2.5 percentage points
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.28 +72.7%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 147.7 +52.9%
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(334 of 500 reporting) +5.1% +1.1 percentage points

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 245.15 +1.01:  Growth Rate +10.7% +.4 percentage point, P/E 20.4 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.28% -16.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +44.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 303.38 +7.56: Growth Rate +42.2% +3.5 percentage points, P/E 32.5 +.2
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 44.1 +4.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 20.90 +13.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.5 +1.9 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 17.5%(-2.5 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 5.0-5.25%, 82.5%(+2.5 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.5-5.75% on 3/320
  

• US Dollar Index 104.07 +.1%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,723.4 -.16%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 47,472.0 +11.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 173.92 +.73%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -30.25 +3.75 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.19% +16.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.595 Trillion +.03% 
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $2.397 Billion -11.4%
• Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program $164.869 Billion -.22%
  

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 41.5 -1.1%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 189.4 +2.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 159.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 31.3 -4.4%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 63.8 -.52%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 135.82 -.09%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 123.21 -6.8%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 31.97 -2.6%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.54 +.49%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 86.78 -.08%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +5.8% -20.0 basis points
  
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.3% unch.
  
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.7% unch.
  
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +4.1% unch.
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.94% -2.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25% +4.0 basis points
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.0 basis points +2.75 basis points
  
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -13.75 -1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.25 +2.25 basis points
  

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 54.35 -.98%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 154.0 -.34% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 332.0 +6.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 69.57 +.20%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 219.92 +6.7%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 178.09 -.89%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 151.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 842.0 -31.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .68 -3.0 basis points
  

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -2.3% unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,252.5B -1.0%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 212,250 +1.8%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% -10.0 basis points
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 51.8 +2.2%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.16% +25.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 210,000 +3.7%

• Weekly Retail Sales +5.50% +20.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -7.0% -1.0 percentage point
  
• Box Office Weekly Gross $78.7M -7.0%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.17/gallon +.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,473.0 +4.7%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $3,785.8/40 ft Box -.99%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,455.2 -.66%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 42.5 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 45.2 -6.1%

• Rail Freight Carloads 269,484 +4.0%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,302,124 +31.4%
  

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +3.5%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value unch.

Leading Sectors

• Gambling +5.6%

• Disk Drives +5.5%
• Semis +5.5%
  

• Computer Hardware +5.2%
  

• Alt Energy +4.7%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Utilities -2.1%
  

• Shipping -2.2%
  

• Social Media -2.6%

• Foods -3.1%
  

• Gold & Silver -3.9%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (62)

• DOOR, CLSK, NET, VERA, IGMS, RIOT, MSTR, MARA, MWA, ENVX, STEP, ONTO, PATH, HDSN, VKTX, DOCN, WOR, OSCR, CTRE, OWL, AMAT, VCTR, MDB, COIN, AI, GPRE, KVYO, COIN, SMCI, HOG, FSLY, COOP, TTMI, ARVN, LRCX, CGEM, QNST, SCSC, ATR, AMPL, SNOW, EVER, POWI, REVG, WEAV, DDOG, IOT, FROG, SBRA, ZM, FE, PI, AAOI, CART, POWL, ARCB, RPD, UCTT, ALPN and KD
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (24)

• PEP, HSY, PEAK, LSPD, PAYC, VSTS, DT, ROAD, SXT, FLO, HAE, NCLH, MGA, OC, WPC, TEX, TTWO, EMBC, RAMP, PINS, LEG, BILL, AMCX and EXPE
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Earnings Outlook Optimism, US Economic Data, Short-Covering, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.7 -.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .43 -21.4%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 61.9 +1.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 174.0 +.13%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.9 -1.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 16.9 -2.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 164.0 +8.0
  

• Total Put/Call .73 -13.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.56 +47.2% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$64.5M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.2 -2.0%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 308.5 -1.8%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 332 -8
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 69.6 -2.0% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 219.9 -2.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 158.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.3 +.43%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 178.57 -.61%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 122.4 -.26%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.54 +.18%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -13.75 basis points unch.
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.0 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.25 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 152.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 842.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 68.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.5 -.2%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 127.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.1 euros/megawatt-hour -1.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 44.1 +.1 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 20.9 +.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.5 +3.6 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(334 of 500 reporting) +5.1% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 245.15 +.01:  Growth Rate +10.7% unch., P/E 20.4 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.28% -2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +44.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 303.38 +.09: Growth Rate +42.2% unch., P/E 32.5 +.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.08 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .81 -42.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -30.0 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +3.4% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 59.0% -1.5 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.94% -2.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 1st FOMC meeting: 53.4%(+3.1 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 12th meeting: 44.4%(-2.2 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +263 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -171 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +106 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Shipping -1.5% 2) Gold & Silver -1.2% 3) Foods -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• RXO, PEAK, GEO, DXCM, PCTY, DT, FLO, SXT, MRNA, TEX, MGA, TTWO, OC, LEG, RAMP, EMBC, PINS, AFRM, BILL, EXPE and AMCX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EXPE 2) PINS 3) DXCM 4) TTWO 5) PSEC
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SYBX 2) EXPE 3) AMCX 4) AFRM 5) PINS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.4%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Cyber Security +2.2% 2) Disk Drives +1.6% 3) AI/Robotics +1.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DOOR, CLSK, NET, IGMS, LITE, RIOT, MSTR, MRCY, SYM, VKTX, MARA, MWA, OWL, RGNX, WOR, PATH, AI, ONTO, ARVN, EVVX, POWI, MDGL, GPRE, CYBR, PI, MDB, COIN, AMAT, FVRR, SMCI, OSW, WEAV, CRNC, ATR, COOP, DDOG, EVER, KVYO, FOXA, FSLY, MNDY, QNST, AMPL, BERY, FE and MMYT
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EXPE 2) AMLX 3) FROG 4) NET 5) DXCM

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) INBS 2) SUNW 3) TOP 4) NET 5) CLSK
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (MNDY)/.32
• (TRMB)/.60
  

After the Close: 

• (ANET)/1.70
• (CAR)/4.15
• (BLKB)/1.05
• (CDNS)/1.33
• (GT)/.36
• (LSCC)/.45
• (PFG)/1.69
• (TDC)/.52
• (VNO)/.61
  

Economic Releases

2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Statement for Jan. is estimated at -$40.0B versus -$129.4B in Dec.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Kashkari speaking, NY Fed 1Y Consumer Inflation Expectations Index, Wolfe Research Semi Conference, BTIG MedTech/Digital Health/Life Science/Diagnostic Tools Conference, TD Cowen Aerospace Defense Conference and the Oppenheimer Healthcare Life Sciences Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +7.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.8 +1.7
  
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 46.1% of Issues Advancing, 51.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.73 +63.2%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$16.4M
  
• 125 New 52-Week Highs, 14 New Lows
• 58.9% (+.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 64.0 unch.
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 61.4 +.6%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 139.4 +.1%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,773.8 +1.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 78.0 (Extreme Greed) +2.0
• 1-Day Vix 8.4 -15.7%
  
• Vix 12.8 +.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .73 -13.1%