Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 5,142.6 -.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 38,900.0 -1.0%

• NASDAQ 16,185.6 -1.2%

• Russell 2000 2,087.1 +.04%

• NYSE FANG+ 9,848.7 -3.1% 
• Solactive Roundhill Meme Stock Index 451.9 +5.0%
  

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 167.1 -2.6%

• Wilshire 5000 51,372.5 -.3%

• Russell 1000 Growth 3,342.9 -1.4%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,713.5 +1.1%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 797.4 +.95%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 142.3 -.41%
  

• NYSE Technology 4,793.6 -1.4%

• Transports 15,767.5 -.8%

• Utilities 856.5 +2.9%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 96.5 +1.7%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 40.9 +.66%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 202.8 +1.3%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 108.7 -.1%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 491,054 +.94%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.7 +74.0%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 1,666 +731
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -29.8 -15.3%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 224,790 +17.1%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,658,921 -.2%

• Total Put/Call .86 -11.5%

• OEX Put/Call 1.99 -14.2%

• ISE Sentiment 146.0 +10.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms 1.10 +18.3%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.0 -9.1%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.03 -7.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index .99 +2.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 15.1 +17.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .48 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 14.2 -2.4%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.91 +3.4%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.39 +4.9%

• Smart Money Flow Index 15,815.9 -1.7%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  94.0 +5.0
  

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $6.077 Trillion +.31%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$.243 Million

• AAII % Bulls 51.7 +11.2%

• AAII % Bears 21.8 +2.4%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 71.0 (Greed) -7.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 279.1 +.7%

• Crude Oil 78.0/bbl. -2.7%

• Reformulated Gasoline 252.7 -3.3%

• Natural Gas 1.82 -1.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 26.4 euros/megawatt-hour +3.3%
  

• Heating Oil 264.1 -2.3% 
• Newcastle Coal 137.0 (1,000/metric ton) +1.5%
  

• Gold 2,176.0 +4.5%
• Silver 24.31 +5.2%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 417.1 +1.5%

• Copper 388.9 +.7%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 379.0 USD/Metric Tonne -8.2%

• China Iron Ore Spot 112.8 USD/Metric Tonne -2.1%

• CME Lumber  616.50 +3.0%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,462.1 +1.5%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 317.50 USD/Short Ton unch.
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q Forecast +2.5% -.5 percentage point
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate (graph)
  
• US Recession Within 3 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 30.6% +.9 percentage point
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.4 +47.2%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 66.7 -9.6%
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(495 of 500 reporting) +8.0% +n/a percentage points

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 247.67 +n/a:  Growth Rate +11.0% +n/a percentage point, P/E 20.8 +n/a
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.82% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +55.2% +n/a percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 315.58 +n/a: Growth Rate +31.3% +n/a percentage points, P/E 31.8 +n/a
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 27.8 -6.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 51.4 +.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 14.3 +.6 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 3.0%(-1.0 percentage point) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 5.0-5.25%, 97.0%(+1.0 percentage point) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.5-5.75% on 3/20
  

• US Dollar Index 102.77 -1.1%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,732.7 +.26%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 68,624.6 +9.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 174.3 -1.0%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -39.75 -4.75 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.09% -9.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.502 Trillion -.39% 
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $1.978 Billion -10.1%
• Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program $164.022 Billion +.34%
  

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.6 +3.7%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 192.6 +1.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 -16.0 basis points
  
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 29.2 +.2%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 65.74 +1.5%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 129.8 +3.7%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 117.9 -1.6%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 33.6 +3.0%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 -.2%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 87.6 -2.8%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +5.8% unch.
  
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.4% unch.
  
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.6% unch.
  
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +4.4% unch.
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.72% -2.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.11% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29% -3.0 basis points
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 7.75 basis points +.5 basis point
  
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.5 -1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.25 -.5 basis point
  

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 49.7 -3.0%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 139.0 -2.8% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 286.0 -7.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 60.2 -6.0%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 192.6 -9.7%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 164.8 +1.1%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 144.0 -11.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 825.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .63 unch.
  

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -2.0% +30.0 basis points
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,266.2B -.9%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 212,250 -.35%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% +10.0 basis points
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 52.6 +1.5%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.16% -14.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 188,200 +9.7%

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.80% +10.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -6.0% -4.0 percentage points
  
• Box Office Weekly Gross $99.5M -10.6%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.40/gallon +.07/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,251.0 +2.2%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $3,287.3/40 ft Box -5.9%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,312.1 -3.0%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 47.5 +11.8%
  
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 49.37 +8.5%

• Rail Freight Carloads 262,732 +1.3%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,568,447 +20.7%
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +1.1%
  

Worst Performing Style

•  Large-Cap Growth -1.4%

Leading Sectors

• Gold & Silver +8.3%

• Regional Banks +4.1%
• Banks +3.0%
  

• Utilities +2.9%
  

• Defense +2.5%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Retail -2.4%
  

• Alt Energy -2.5%
  

• Networking -2.6%

• Software -2.6%
  

• Electric Vehicles -3.2%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (20)

• SWBI, SWIN, SLDB, IOT, TPC, OPRA, DQ, CLSK, EHAB, DOCU, SYM, CVNA, VITL, MSTR, COIN, CCL, CUK, GPS, CAVA and UBS
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (26)

• POWL, VET, TBBK, DELL, CRC, WSM, ERO, KVYO, VKTX, CMPS, PDD, ANF, AVGO, PBPB, MDB, YY, COST, IEP, PBR, SVV, PBR/A, EOLS, MRVL, MAX, RWAY and MGNX
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• (ASAN)/-.10
• (CASY)/2.13
• (ORCL)/1.38
• (MTN)/6.04
  

Economic Releases

• None of note
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The CB Employment Trends Index for Feb., NY Fed 1Y Consumer Inflation Expectations Index, 3Y T-Note auction, Barclays Healthcare Conference, BofA Consumer/Retail Conference, UBS Tech/Media/Internet Conference, Oppenheimer Healthcare MedTech/Services Conference, Leerink Biopharma Conference, JPMorgan Industrials Conference, JPMorgan Consumer Ingredients Conference, (ITRI) investor day, (SANM) annual meeting and the Deutsche Bank Media/Internet/Telecom Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +21.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.6 +.9
  
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 62.5% of Issues Advancing, 34.6% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.84 +31.4%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$65.5M
  
• 246 New 52-Week Highs, 6 New Lows
• 62.9% (+2.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 73.0 +1.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.5 -1.9%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 142.5 -.06%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,105.6 -.66%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 74.0 (Greed) -1.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 11.2 -23.8%
  
• Vix 14.6 +1.3%
  
• Total Put/Call .80 -15.8%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5 to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.25 -1.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 66.0 +.25 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 114.4 USD/Metric Tonne -2.0%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.0 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.6 +1.4%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.5 -.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.18%

• S&P 500 futures -.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.24%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.4 -1.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .41 -9.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 66.9 +.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 175.5 -.5%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.3 +.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 13.6 -7.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 139.0 -8.0
  

• Total Put/Call .90 -14.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.27 +18.7%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$304.5M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.0 -1.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 298.0 -1.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 287 +6
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.2 -2.0% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 196.2 -5.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.8 -.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 163.8 -.72%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 121.1 +.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 +.1%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.5 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.5 basis points unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.0 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 147.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 827.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 63.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.0 +.1%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 115.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 26.0 euros/megawatt-hour -2.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 24.9 -.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 50.1 -7.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 14.4 +.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(494 of 500 reporting) +7.9% +.7 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 247.60 +.07:  Growth Rate +11.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.8 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.82% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +57.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 315.75 +.12: Growth Rate +31.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.6 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.03 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .92 -3.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -42.0 basis points (2s/10s) +2.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.5% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 57.7% -1.1 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.72% unch.: CPI YoY +3.12% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 1st FOMC meeting: 76.3%(-.3 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 12th meeting: 55.7%(+.5 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +52 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +11 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +53 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech/transport/biotech/consumer discetionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Networking -.5% 2) Airlines -.2% 3) REITs -.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• VET, CWAN, SLNO, STVN, CRGY, ANF, CCOI, GPCR, PSFE, HPK, CIEN, HDSN, VKTX, VSCO, MEI and SWIN
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) VSCO 2) EOSE 3) HPE 4) XEL 5) BURL
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) VSCO 2) CDMO 3) LUXH 4) BIVI 5) CMI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume