Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Restaurants -4.3% 2) Semis -3.0% 3) Energy -2.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• RSG, BLCO, COR, CLX, GNRC, ENLC, GTES, FLEX, DAY, JCI, CG, SITE, TXG, SQ, EXEL, CDW, GPN, EL, NCLH, HI, DBRG, SWKS, RYI, OI, CVS, SBUX, LEG and CGC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) NYCB 2) JCI 3) CVS 4) SBUX 5) IQ
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SBUX 2) CVS 3) SQ 4) SMCI 5) SITE
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLE 2) XLF 3) GDX 4) XLY 5) XBI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.6%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Social Media +3.0% 2) Regional Banks +2.6% 3) Biotech +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TMDX, POWL, WGS, ATEN, PINS, TECH, TGTX, NARI, GRMN, XNCR, PRCT, CRS, OSW, TRN, AX, BEP, LIVN, BEPC, AXTA, DOCN, UTHR, VRSK, DD, CABA, CLH, COCO, DAN, RYAN, CHEF, MCY, AY, HTLD, SNAP, HUM, ANAB, PEN, JNJ, HLIT, MMSI, ARCT, ADP, PLRX and THC
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) DLO 2) CHPT 3) IEF 4) SYF 5) NCLH

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) POWL 2) PINS 3) TGTX 4) GRMN 5) USAP
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) XLK 3) XLI 4) IDU 5) KBE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AGCO)/2.26
• (APTV)/1.02
• (MT)/.91
• (BAX)/.61
• (BDX)/2.97
• (BWA)/.87
• (CAH)/1.95
• (CNHI)/.27
• (CGNX)/.07
• (COP)/2.04
• (CMI)/5.06
• (EXC)/.70
• (ICE)/1.48
• (IRM)/1.06
• (ITRI)/.84
• (ITT)/1.36
• (LAMR)/1.47
• (MRNA)/-3.56
• (PH)/6.12
• (BTU)/.31
• (PENN)/-.59
• (PWR)/1.29
• (REGN)/10.18
• (SEE)/.53
• (SHAK)/.10
• (SO)/.90
• (SWK)/.55
• (CI)/6.22
• (VMC)/.74
• (ZBH)/1.87
• (ZTS)/1.34
  

After the Close: 

• (AES)/.34
• (AAPL)/1.51
• (SQ)/.72
• (BKNG)/13.98
• (COIN)/1.15
• (ED)/1.90
• (DLR)/1.62
• (DKNG)/-.29
• (LOCO)/.14
• (EXPE)/-.14
• (FTNT)/.38
• (ILMN)/.04
• (IR)/.69
• (MTZ)/-.48
• (MELI)/6.10
• (MNST)/.43
• (PXD)/5.00
• (RMAX)/.19 
• (TXRH)/1.63
• (TDW)/.63
• (X)/.82
• (OLED)/1.07
  

Economic Releases

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for April.
  

8:30 am EST

• 1Q Non-Farm Productivity is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +3.3% gain in 4Q.
• The Trade Balance for March is estimated to widen to -$69.7B versus -68.9B in Feb.
• Unit Labor Costs for 1Q is estimated to rise +3.6% versus a +.4% gain in 4Q.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 212K versus 207K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1793K versus 1781K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• Factor Orders for March is estimated to rise +1.6% versus a +1.4% gain in Feb.
• Final Durable Goods Orders readings.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly Fed Balance Sheet report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (UPS) annual meeting, (BSX) annual meeting, (KMB) annual meeting, (LMT) annual meeting, (GLW) annual meeting, (R) annual meeting, (PZZA) annual meeting and the (RTX) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +5.7% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.5 -1.0
  
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 53.2% of Issues Advancing, 44.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .94 -42.3%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$101.6M
  
• 21 New 52-Week Highs, 30 New Lows
• 53.8% (+1.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 42.0 -5.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.8 -2.7%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 140.5 -1.0%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,828.1 +.02%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 42.0 (Fear) unch.
  
• 1-Day Vix 17.9 -1.2%
  
• Vix 15.7 +.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .92 -2.1%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 111.5 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 69.5 +.75 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 115.1 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.3 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.7 +.04%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.2 +1.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.18%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.38%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Stagflationary US Economic Data, Higher Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Worries, Transport/Commodity Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.2 +3.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.01 +245.9%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 67.7 -.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 183.4 +.5%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.0 +.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.6 +4.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 125.0 -3.0
  

• Total Put/Call .92 -1.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.12 unch.
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$410.3M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.1 +2.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 259.9 +1.2%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 285 +3
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.5 +1.4%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 189.0 +.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 111.2 -2.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 175.7 +2.6%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 133.2 -1.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.4 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -7.25 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.5 basis points unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 151.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 773.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.3 -.2%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.40% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.29%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 29.1 euros/megawatt-hour +3.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.6 -6.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 29.9 +14.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.1 -7.5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(266 of 500 reporting) +3.6% +.2 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 253.68 -.02:  Growth Rate +13.7% unch., P/E 20.0 -.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.85% -2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 10 reporting) +42.4% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 319.16 +.25: Growth Rate +32.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 30.9 -.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .96 -8.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .95 +10.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -35.75 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.9% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.6% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.50% +1.0 basis point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 90.1%(+3.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 75.2%(+4.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -155 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -9 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +154 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower:  On losses in my tech/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long