Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (LI)/1.75

After the Close: 

• (KEYS)/1.39
• (NDSN)/2.31
• (PANW)/1.25
• (ZM)/1.19
  

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Jefferson speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, JPMorgan Tech/Media/Communications Conference, American Thoracic Society Conference and the TD Cowen Sustainability Week could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -9.4% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 20.9 -3.2
  
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 50.7% of Issues Advancing, 46.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .69 -33.0%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$160.4M
  
• 135 New 52-Week Highs, 16 New Lows
• 64.4% (+.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 67.0 -3.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.0 +1.1%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 235.8 +.36%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,175.9 -.16%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 64.0 (Greed) +2.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 6.9 -27.6%
  
• Vix 12.3 -1.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .78 -6.0%

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk 

• The true battle is: Extinctionists who want a holocaust for all of humanity. — Versus — Expansionists who want to reach the stars and Understand the Universe.

• @wideawake_media

• "Environmentally-friendly" wind turbine blades being buried in a landfill site because their 20-year lifespan is up and they can't be recycled. (pic)
  

• @MarioNawful

• TUCKER: BILL GATES IS PRO-DEATH?! Aaron Rodgers: "I think there's some people that want depopulation. There's been a video of Bill Gates - people think it's taken out of context - but if you look at his track record and what he's done around the world, I don't know that he's a proponent of all life and people having more kids." Tucker Carlson: "I think he's strongly pro-death from what I can tell." (video)

• @IAPolls2022

• GALLUP: Trend in Mentions of Inflation as the Most Important Family Financial Problem • April 2020 — 3% • April 2021 — 8% • April 2022 — 32% • April 2023 — 35% • April 2024 — 41% (all-time high).

•  @SteveLovesAmmo

•  Things not in the news anymore…. (list)
  

• @Resist_CBDC

• Green Energy. Shortages. Rationing. Made permanent. UBI. via Digital ID + CBDC. It’s not supposed to work. It’s to break us and make us dependent on China. The destruction is intentional. (pic)

• @VigilantFox

• Aaron Rodgers thinks it’s weird that Ghislaine Maxwell was found guilty of trafficking kids, but “nobody who she was trafficking kids to got indicted or named.” “All the files that are out there still haven’t been released.” Why? (video)
• Dr. Peter McCullough Issues Urgent COVID Vaccine Warning to Donald Trump. A move like this could change everything. 
• Tucker Carlson: “The Lockdowns and the Vax Depopulate By Definition”. Why? Because: • Increased miscarriage rates • Decreased sperm counts • Weakened immune systems • The inability to find a mate during lockdown • et cetera Carlson says people like Bill Gates are “strongly pro-death.” But he is “not the only one,” responded Aaron Rodgers. (video)

• @zerohedge

• Consumer Prices Have Risen Every Month Since 'Bidenomics' Began, Up 19.5% To Record High. (graph)
• "The Russians Just Walked In": Ukraine Border Defense Funds Diverted To Fake Companies In Massive "Betrayal".
• The Tide Turns: Research On COVID Vaccine Harms, Once A Taboo Subject, Now Appearing In Some Medical Journals.

• @WallStreetApes 

• Donald Trump Knew Their Plan, He Was Right. He Tried To Warn Us “130 legislators in this chamber have endorsed legislation that would bankrupt our nation by providing free taxpayer funded health care to millions of illegal aliens, forcing taxpayers to subsidize free care for anyone in the world who unlawfully crosses our borders.” (video)
• America’s 100% Safe & Secure Elections In Action. Delaware County Lawyer Tom Gallagher Destroying Voting Machine Tapes To Bypass A FOIA Request. “Gotta have a little campfire going.” “What we have here is evidence.” (video)

• @kylenabecker
  

• BREAKING. CONFIRMED: The U.S. government funded "GAIN-OF-FUNCTION" research at the Wuhan laboratory that launched the global Covid pandemic. "Did NIH fund gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology through EcoHealth?" “If you're speaking about the generic term... YES, WE DID.” (video)
• Thousands of Chinese nationals are taking advantage of Biden's border crisis to infiltrate the United States. None of them would be here unless the CCP wanted them to be here. You think about that. (video)
• BREAKING. The House just passed a bill to detain and deport illegal aliens who assault police officers. 148 Democrats voted AGAINST it. These people hate Americans. (pic)
• "As Prime Minister of Slovakia, I can tell you that we are going to look into these politicians and their meaningless purchases of medical devices and vacc*nes." "Slovakia REJECTS the WHO’s pandemic treaty!" Slovakia PM Robert Fico was SHOT this morning. (video)
  

• @BGatesIsaPsycho 

• Bill Gates & Klaus Schwab in 2008 discussion de-population!!  “If this is how they talk in public, imagine what they are saying behind closed doors”. “Yet the wokies still can’t see through their agenda”. (video)
• “Governments remote control of car use installed in car without my consent”. “Now equipped with Geo-Fencing & Geo-timing capabilities”. Are Governments already preparing vehicles for their 15 Minute City entrapment as part of Agenda 2030? (video)
• Chinese Robot Production. Remember with AI, Robotics & driverless vehicles - the so called elites have no more need for the masses. The WEF describes us all as “useless eaters” Consider yourself therefore expendable. (video)

• @matthewlohmeier
  

• THERE IS AN ONGOING WAR being waged by domestic enemies against the United States military that is far more destructive than any threat we are facing from our foreign adversaries! Military senior leaders are ceaselessly waging a politically and culturally subversive campaign against our men and women in uniform. There is no doubt that men and women of character will continue to lose their motivation to serve and will leave the service. And there is no end in sight to our recruiting troubles.(memo)

• @PeterSweden7

• HUGE NEWS. The state of Louisiana just voted to BAN the WEF and WHO agenda. Saying that they shall have no jurisdiction or power within the state. The bill now passed both the Senate and the House. (pic)

• @CartlandDavid

• Anti vaxxxxeeeerrrrrrsssss!!! 70% of NHS Staff are ‘Anti-Vaxxers’. Latest report from UK Health Security Agency confirms that 70% of Frontline health care workers REFUSED the COVID-19 Booster-vaccine in 2023/24. (table)

• @amuse

• TERROR: Given the fact that the Palestinians are holding five Americans hostage is it appropriate for US cities like Fresno to replace the American flag with the flag of terror and to play their national anthem? (video)

• @EmeraldRobinson
  

• First, the Prime Minister of Slovakia promised to investigate the shots. Then an assassin tried to kill him. (video)
  

• @WallStreetSilv

• ALERT: EU Wants To Criminalize Migration Speech. "Criticism of migration will become a criminal offence" "And media outlets that give room to criticism of migration can be SHUT DOWN". (video)
• When they say, "Net Zero" that means massive unemployment and massive starvation. They plan to basically shut down the economy and even farms. (video)
  

• @visegrad24

• BREAKING: A new @ncri_io report discovers that large parts of the anti-Israel protest movement focused on occupying public spaces & blocking critical infrastructure is sponsored by China. The goal is to ideologically subvert and destabilize America. (pic)

• @alifarhat79

• Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician and I'll show you a crook. -Harry Truman.

•  @Lewis_Brackpool

• Hearing this makes me wince. Mainstream media refers to cloud seeding with silver iodide as "safe & effective." “The good news is, we've been doing this since the 1940s and 1950s." But wait, I thought it was a conspiracy theory?! (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,010,545 Reports(+992 from prior report) Through April 26th, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 93.25 +.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 59.5 -2.5 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 116.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.90 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 64.9 +.8%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 13.8 +.44%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures unch.

• S&P 500 futures -.01%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures unch.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Diminishing China Economy Fears, Technical Buying, Insurance/Food Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.6 +1.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .43 -28.4%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 63.3 -1.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 184.2 +.12%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.9 -.58%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 14.4 +2.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 139.0 +3.0
  

• Total Put/Call .76 -12.6%

• NYSE Arms .95 -51.3%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$147.5M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.1 +.24%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 257.7 -1.4%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 288 +1
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.1 -.09%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 169.1 -1.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 130.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 93.6 -3.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 157.2 +.52%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 128.9 -.01%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.8 +.12%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.0 basis points unch.
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 10.0 basis points +1.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.5 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 137.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 738.0 -5.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 60.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.9 +.09%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.40% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 30.2 euros/megawatt-hour +1.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -21.6 -3.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 20.1 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.0 -1.3 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(463 of 500 reporting) +5.3% -.2 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 255.73 +.10:  Growth Rate +14.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.8 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.89% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +37.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 327.04 +.15: Growth Rate +36.1% unch., P/E 31.9 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.13 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .79 -18.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -41.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.6% -20.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 52.4% +.1 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.39% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 70.4%(+1.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 50.7%(-2.8 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -290 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +37 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +55 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my biotech/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -2.1% 2) Construction -1.8% 3) Airlines -.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• WMS, CIVI, DE, BMRN, IBP, EDU, IONS, CRGY, NICE and GME
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FFIE 2) WEN 3) ACHR 4) TTWO 5) PRU
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DE 2) AMC 3) GME 4) GL 5) MBUU
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) AMJ 2) XLE 3) IGV 4) XLK 5) XRT

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.1%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Networking +1.1% 2) Insurance +1.1% 3) Digital Health +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MGNI, TRUP, LSPD, GOOS, CGC, EXTR, SBOW, ZTO, CRBG, CGON, RYI, BABA, WMT, EH, SGML, GSL, NATL, BJRI, NTES, ALKT, GH, GEO, KURA, BEKE, CB, GO, MORF, DG, SE, PCRX, SDRL, TGT, AMD, FUTU, RARE, NVAX, TTD, JAMF, MOR, VERX, PTLO and PCVX
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ASTS 2) BHP 3) MGNI 4) FFIE 5) SO

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GOOS 2) JFBR 3) MGNI 4) ASTS 5) WMT
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLU 2) AMJB 3) SMH 4) GRID 5) XLB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume