Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (MMM)/1.68
• (AB)/.67
• (AON)/3.09
• (B)/.40
• (BAH)/1.52
• (BMY)/1.62
• (CRI)/.50
• (CHTR)/7.98
• (CL)/.87
• (GNTX)/.51
• (NWL)/.21
• (SAIA)/4.01
• (TROW)/2.27

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Personal Income for June is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.5% gain in May.
• Personal Spending for June is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in May.
• The Core PCE Price Index MoM for June is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in May.
  

10:00 am EST

• Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment readings.
  

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Services Activity Index for July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow update, weekly Baker Hughes Oil Rig count, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports and the (CRUS) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +25.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.8 -5.1
  
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 79.1% of Issues Advancing, 18.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.41 +95.8%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$292.3M
  
• 150 New 52-Week Highs, 24 New Lows
• 65.4% (+4.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 58.0 +3.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 52.8 -.2%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 235.3 +1.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,677.3 -.56%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 45.0 (NEUTRAL) -2
  
• 1-Day Vix 15.3 -17.8%
  
• Vix 16.7 -7.7%
  
• Total Put/Call .91 -9.9%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @JoshWalkos

• CrowdStrike Achieves IL5 Authorization to Secure US Department of Defense. Are you paying attention yet? 
• I cannot stress enough how important this is. Someone placed a $2.3 million dollar put bet on CRWD with a strike price of $370. TWO days before the outage. It expires on January 17, 2025. There is an extraordinarily low likelihood that this was just a random event in the context of the outage and subsequent price drop. Someone knew something was coming. (pic)

• @rawsalerts

• #BREAKING: Absolute chaos is unfolding as Pro-Palestine protesters have taken down the three American flags and burning them at Union Station and replaced them with Palestinian flags. (video)
  

• @CollinRugg
  

• JUST IN: Bodycam footage released by Senator Chuck Grassley from the Trump Pennsylvania rally on July 13th. The video was obtained from the Beaver County Emergency Services Unit. In the footage, the men were discussing how they had noticed Thomas Crooks earlier before the incident unfolded. "Beaver County sn*pers saw him and sent the pictures out. This is him." (video)

• @MikeBenzCyber

• Insanity. Biden-Harris’s DHS is telling Biden-Harris’s political opponent to vastly reduce the number of voters he can reach on the campaign trail. This is completely unprecedented in US history. The gov’t in power is effectively blocking its adversary from campaigning in person. (pic)
  

• @JamesMelville

• Digital ID is being sold for our “safety, convenience and security”. In reality, it’s a giant con-trick to hoodwink and sleepwalk people into surveillance, government control and loss of freedoms and human dignity. Everyone needs to wake up to this before it’s too late. (pic)

• @LauraLoomer

• WOW. @chiproytx just asked FBI Director Chris Wray if any FBI agents have expressed displeasure over the fact that Donald Trump survived the assassination attempt. Wray said there have been at least 2 instances…and said one of those agents has been “referred”… whatever that means. So in other words, we have FBI agents who are working at the agency responsible for the investigation of the attempted assassination of Donald Trump who wanted him dead. This is disgraceful!

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• “The University of California have already perfected the technology to put vaccines into our lettuces”. This is the future The Globalists want - their mRNA vaccines inside every human by whatever method. (video)
• “Pedophilia is a sexual orientation that should be accepted by members of society”. “Just like Pedophiles - we are not responsible for our feelings”. “We must act & it is our responsibility to overcome negative feelings about Pedophiles”. This is the rhetoric the insane radical left are pushing - do you agree with this scholar speaking? (video)
  

• @kylenabecker
  

• So, if I’ve got this right, far-left protesters can riot in Washington D.C., sometimes for days, burn the American flag, torch leaders in effigy, take over buildings, disrupt official proceedings, and force a former president into a bunker, but the only time it’s an “insurrection” is when some protesters happen to be “Trump supporters”? (video)
• BREAKING. The Trump shooter is *CONFIRMED* to be a rabid Biden supporter. (pic)
  

• @Breaking911
  

• ‘BURN THAT SHIT!’ Anti-Israel protesters set fire to the American flag in D.C. (video)
• REP. BISHOP: “Why wasn’t Trump kept off the stage?” FBI DIRECTOR WRAY: “We don’t know the answer to that.” (video)
• BREAKING: GOP Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN) introduces articles of impeachment against Vice Pres. Kamala Harris for "willful refusal to uphold immigration laws" & "misleading the public on the physical and cognitive well-being” of Biden.

• @DC_Draino

• Secret Service now encouraging Trump to stop doing outdoor rallies. This isn’t about his safety. It’s b/c the Biden regime wants him to stop holding giant rallies that show his popularity. And now they’re kind of threatening him. “Don’t have huge rallies…or you might get hurt”.
• Here is the Democrat election scam broken down:

• @MJTruthUltra
  

• There it is… the protestors are being bused in… Who’s paying for this? (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• James O’Keefe ‘OMG’ Featured A Citizen Journalist Video Exposing ActBlue Money Laundering. Phoenix, Arizona, resident had 20+ donations made in her name to ActBlue. She did not recognize the donations. “There’s no way I could afford that”. Donors denying high volumes contributions. This is a criminal enterprise setup by Democrats. (video)
• James O’Keefe Exposed Democrat’s MASSIVE Money Laundering Operation. Contributions were made through ActBlue & Citizens all across the US Over $200 Million Laundered. It’s called “Smurfing”: The activity of laundering money by conducting a large number of small transactions through banks and individuals One Person “contributed ” $217,000 through 12,000 different contributions in a 3 year period, in variations of his name & address. Thousands of transactions laundering hundreds of millions of dollars. (video)

• @legislationpage

• 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: Harris Campaign allegedly using ActBlue for a money laundering scheme. Reports indicate that $20 million from Swiss billionaire Hansjörg Wyss was broken down into over 1.6 million donations across 400,000 donors, raising serious questions about the legitimacy of these contributions....

• @IsabellaMDeLuca
  

• BREAKING: Bevelyn Beatty Williams has just been sentenced to 3 years in federal prison for preaching the Gospel of Jesus Christ in front of an abortion clinic. This is an attack on our faith. Please pray for Bevelyn, her husband, and their young daughter as they face the most darkest of days. This injustice must end immediately. (pic)

• @choeshow

• This clip did not age well. As Seattle and other U.S. cities were being victimized by BLM/Antifa rioting and looting, Kamala Harris supported protesters and encouraged them to keep on going. (video)

• @EYakoby  

• The DC Palestinian Youth Movement released maggots and crickets were released throughout the Watergate Hotel where Netanyahu is staying. The protestors also pulled multiple fire alarms throughout the night. This is an utter security failure. (video)

• @nedryun

• 100% they’re laundering money, from both foreign and domestic sources. The FEC has fought tooth and nail to not have Act Blue require CVV verification.

• @MattBraynard

• ActBlue disabled their credit card verification process so that as long as the card numbers are valid, the name and address don't need to match the actual card owner's. No other donation platform allows this, and it results in higher transaction fees. Why?

• @The_Real_Fly

• Understanding American debt: We borrow money to pay for welfare, entitlements and war. That is the business model. We do not improve the nation, only satiate the weak and the needy and lash out with force to produce the demand for weapons of war. (graph)
  

• @TonyClimate
  

• Kamala Harris' father was a radical Marxist professor at Stanford University. (pic)
  

• @MattWallace888
  

• OH MY GOD THIS NEEDS TO BE SHARED EVERYWHERE IMMEDIATELY. THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION JUST RELEASED CELL PHONE DATA OF A MYSTERIOUS FIGURE WHO MADE FREQUENT TRIPS BETWEEN TRUMP SHOOTER THOMAS MATTHEW CROOKS’S HOME AND A BUILDING IN DC NEAR AN FBI OFFICE. 9 DEVICES WERE IDENTIFIED IN THE ANALYSIS LINKING TO BOTH HIS HOME AND WORK! HE DID NOT ACT ALONE. WE ARE WITNESSING THE FIRST EVER COUP IN THE HISTORY OF THE UNITED STATES. (Pic)
  

• @TinaZimmermann4

• How easily we can be tricked. (video)

• @BehizyTweets

• BREAKING: An election integrity activist has obtained an authentic copy of data from Dominion voting machines that was preserved by election clerk & gold-star mom Tina Peters, who is now facing 20 years for preserving the data. He drove a Cybertruck calling on Elon Musk to use his engineers to check just how bad the code inside voting machines really is. (video)
  

• @disclosetv

• NEW - The European Union wants to build a comprehensive database of the assets owned by all citizens.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.75% to -.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.5 +3.0 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 67.5 +5.25 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 99.7 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.01 -.28%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 54.2 +2.7%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.2 +.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.33%.

• S&P 500 futures +.22%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.34%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Sharply into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Jitters, US Election Credibility Concerns, Higher Long-Term Rates, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.5 +18.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .77 +53.3%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 53.6 -3.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 183.5 -1.2%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.5 +1.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 15.4 +33.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 146.0 +12.0
  

• Total Put/Call .95 unch.

• NYSE Arms .82 -31.7%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$320.8M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.3 +3.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 270.7 +3.2%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 247 +6
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.3 +1.8%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 161.4 +4.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 135.0 basis points +7.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.4 +1.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 169.0 +3.2%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 128.0 unch.
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.0 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -14.75 basis points +4.0 basis points
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -1.25 basis points -1.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.0 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 146.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 688.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 61.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 -.1%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.31% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.6 euros/megawatt-hour +3.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -35.1 -4.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -45.7 -19.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.5 +.3 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(133 of 500 reporting) +7.6% +.6 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 262.34 +.07:  Growth Rate +14.9% unch., P/E 20.8 -.5
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.80% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +19.8% -14.0 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 335.52 +.21: Growth Rate +25.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.8 -1.8
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .93 +10.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .82 +10.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -14.0 basis points (2s/10s) +10.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.73% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 60.3% +2.3 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.39% unch.: CPI YoY +3.01% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 91.4%(-.8 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 56.5%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -915 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -36 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -58 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower:  On losses in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Semis -4.2% 2) Gambling -3.0% 3) Software -2.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TLN, GD, ZGN, RRC, MXL, CNI, BLCO, RRR, APH, GOOG, PII, ULTA, DAVE, OTIS, WMG, PMT, ROP, WNC, HCSG, DB, WFRD, ALGM, ROKU, HA, TTD, VRT, BZ, TSLA, BXMT, SFL, SAGE and LW
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BHC 2) AVTR 3) HA 4) ACI 5) STLA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) VWE 2) CONN 3) LW 4) AMC 5) LYFT
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLE 2) XLK 3) SMH 4) IGV 5) KWEB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -3.0%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Utilities +1.7% 2) Healthcare Providers +1.0% 3) Medical Equipment +.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PRG, ENPH, MAT, NBR, MANH, FLEX, CHKP, ALKS, AMN, APEI, AVTR, QDEL, MEDP, CSGP, THC, TSEM, SGRY, STX, T, XNCR, ENVA, PB, LPLA, SF, TDY, TEL, FCF, UPBD, CALM, FTAI, SEDG, BMY, LMT, SNDR, TMO and HIW
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) UWMC 2) BHC 3) LMT 4) STX 5) ABT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PRG 2) THC 3) GPI 4) EHC 5) ALLE
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) KRE 2) XLF 3) IYW 4) MLPX 5) XLB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume