Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• Unless the Brazilian government returns the illegally seized property of 𝕏 and SpaceX, we will seek reciprocal seizure of government assets too. Hope Lula enjoys flying commercial. (video)
  

• @amuse

• WEAPONIZATION: Just days after @realDonaldTrump was shot, 23 Washington D.C. residents were secretly being asked by Biden's special counsel to send the former president to prison for the rest of his life. At least 12 agreed and Trump was indicted 9 days before the DoJ deadline for prosecuting someone running for public office. The Biden-Harris regime was desperate following the president's horrific debate performance and desperately needed a new indictment after SCOTUS gutted their prior efforts. (timeline)
  

• @LauraLoomer

• JUST IN: @Eagles just said @KamalaHarris is putting up counterfeit political ads to trick Eagles fans into thinking the team has endorsed @KamalaHarris. (pic)

• @Rasmussen_Poll

• Georgia: Joe Biden did not ‘win’ Georgia in 2020.

• @HealthRanger

• We are now watching one of the most hilarious political pivots in history, where Democrats, reacting to the exploding #MAHA movement (Make America Healthy Again) with RFK + Trump, are now openly siding with processed foods, junk foods, pesticides, GMOs, toxic food ingredients and of course Big Pharma's deadly vaccines.
• In Colorado, they do NOTHING when armed migrant gangs take over entire apartment building complexes in Aurora, but when some creative person posts a sign meme protesting the insanity, a MANHUNT is under way! No doubt the entire FBI, SWAT, DOJ, military and Space Force will be hunting down whoever posted these signs! (video)

• @stkirsch

• This is huge. The first of five states to go after Pfizer for-misrepresentation. (video)

• @catturd2

• That’s really all you need to know. (pic)

• @DC_Draino

• They don’t finish counting on election night for 1 reason. To figure out how many votes they need to cheat, then slowly commingle those fake ballots in with the real ones. We know they do this. Question now is, can we stop them this time? Poll watchers must refuse to leave at any cost. Make them DRAG you out b/c that is when they are going to cheat the most. And when you see them cheating, get video of it and call the RNC legal hotline to get immediate injunctions filed. NO GOING HOME
• Whoa - a whistleblower in the Aurora, CO police department is revealing that the Venezuelan gangs aren’t just terrorizing a single apartment complex. It’s happening across the city. (pic)

• @wideawake_media

• "Farming needs to stop. That's the single biggest driver of climate change." Do you think these kids even know where the food in the supermarkets comes from? (video)

• @TonyClimate

• Climategate emails show that erasure of the prior warmth was coordinated by #ClimateScam professionals in several countries. (pic)

• @WallStreetSilv

• Is the system broken? (pic)
• Did You Know? (pic)
  

• @WallStreetApes
  

• Andy Frisella Believes Kamala Harris Has Worse Poll Ratings Now Than She Did 4 Months Ago (Which was 27%). (video)
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are unch. to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 93.75 +1.75 basis points.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 57.75 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 97.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%.
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.9 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 58.4 +3.4%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.4 +.05%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.06%.
• S&P 500 futures -.07%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.22%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, US Economic Data, Technical Buying, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.1 -3.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .80 -32.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 57.1 +2.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 178.2 +.6%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.0 -.11%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 14.2 -3.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 140.0 -2.0
  

• Total Put/Call .71 -23.7%

• NYSE Arms .82 -24.8%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$125.2M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.6 -.07%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 294.53 -.11%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 249 -5
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.41 +1.1%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 162.75 +.92%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 140.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.4 -.94%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 162.0 +.6%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 127.2 -.33%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.1 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -19.75 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -20.75 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.75 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 136.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 692.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 66.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.9 -.06%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.11% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.23%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.82 euros/megawatt-hour +2.49%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -24.2 +.6 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -50.9 -.7 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.4 -.4 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(493 of 500 reporting) +11.4% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 265.53 +.33:  Growth Rate +13.7% +.2 percentage point, P/E 21.1 -.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.69% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +36.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 345.75 +.99: Growth Rate +22.3% +.3 percentage point, P/E 31.8 -.5
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .74 -6.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -2.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.0 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.53% +54.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 69.4% -1.6 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% +10.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.16 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th FOMC meeting: 50.3%(+4.3 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th meeting: 44.8%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +336 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -59 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +70 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -1.2% 2) Gold & Silver -1.0% 3) Digital Health -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ACI, ULTA, EE, ALNY, ALAB and ESTC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) WMG 2) FIVE 3) ASHR 4) HUT 5) SPHR
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ESTC 2) EGIO 3) DDD 4) ALNY 5) ULTA
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLK 2) XRT 3) VDE 4) VIS 5) XLC

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.4%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Electric Vehicles +2.0% 2) Semis +1.5% 3) Shipping +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MDB, BBIO, MRVL, MXL, CLCO, INTC, AAOI, TITN, AMRK, FUTU, QXO, YPF, AFRM, PGNY, BMA, JKS, DELL, GGAL, FRO, OLLI, BBW, DCTH, DINO and PGY
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FLR 2) K 3) DNB 4) BSX 5) DISH

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MDB 2) DELL 3) MRVL 4) CAVA 5) AVGO
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) VGT 2) VDC 3) XLI 4) XLF 5) VOX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tuesday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (MOMO)/1.84

After the Close: 

• (GTLB)/.10
• (PD)/.17
• (ZS)/.70
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for July is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.3% decline in June. 
• ISM Manufacturing for August is estimated to rise to 47.5 versus 46.8 in July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow 3Q update, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for Sept., Goldman Sachs Retailing Conference, Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conference, Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference, Barclays Consumer Staples Conference, Benchmark Tech/Media/Telecom Conference, (DHR) analyst day, Jefferies Industrial Conference and the Citi Tech Conference could also impact global trading on Tuesday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -27.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.2 +.3
  
• 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
• 35.2% of Issues Advancing, 61.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.02 -6.4%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$38.1M
  
• 198 New 52-Week Highs, 12 New Lows
• 60.7% (-.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 65.0 -3.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 56.6 +1.7%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 226.4 +.06%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,411.3 +.17%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 62.0 (GREED) +10.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 11.8 -9.1%
  
• Vix 15.9 +1.3%
  
• Total Put/Call .79 -15.1%