Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +9.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.4 -1.5
  
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 55.6% of Issues Advancing, 41.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .80 -15.8%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$3.3M
  
• 182 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 59.8% (+.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 67.0 +2.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 54.5 -.05%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 226.9 +.4%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,805.3 +.47%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 66.0 (GREED) +2.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 8.2 -8.5%
  
• Vix 15.6 -1.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .85 unch.

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• Pretty sure I saw this scene in The Joker. Philadelphia, PA. (video)
• Wow. Democrats dominate academia. (graph)
  

• @JackPosobiec

• Wild how Oprah is doing hour-long infomercials for Kamala right after the FBI seized the Diddy tapes. (pic)

• @kylenabecker

• FLASHBACK: This was the 2020 moment when Americans knew something was *TERRIBLY WRONG* with their elections. You can see it in their eyes they had no doubt that Biden would win. (video)

• @ScottPresler

• I’ve been to a lot of Trump rallies. This line is INCREDIBLY long. The amount of young people is shocking Indiana County, PA. (video)
  

• @BehizyTweets
  

• BREAKING: Mark Robinson has been activated. He just said he's "Coming After CNN Full Throttle" for creating a hoax to lynch his historic campaign for governor. He's reacting by going on offense instead of letting the lies flourish. "Everything is up to legal counsel to take CNN to task for what they have done to us. We are going to go after them." (video)

• @charliekirk11

• A newly resurfaced 2018 video obtained by DailyMail shows Kamala Harris chanting alongside protesters and Jussie Smollet: “Down down with deportation.” “Up up with agitation.” “Down down with deportation.” I’m sure she’ll say she’s since changed her position… (video)
• So the NFL has rolled out what it calls a “non-partisan” NFL Votes initiative. The only problem? All the orgs it partners with are Democrat, leftwing GOTV groups!

• @libsoftiktok

• Nine former national security and military officials who signed a letter Sunday endorsing Kamala Harris also signed a letter nearly four years ago dismissing Hunter Biden’s infamous laptop as Russian disinformation. (pic)
• Chicago is about to go up in flames like an active warzone. The Chicago gangs are furious that Venezuelanan gang Tren de Aragua are coming and trying to take over. Tensions are rising… (video)

• @stillgray
  

• AOC along with several other members of Congress are “looking into” ways of “reining in the media environment.” She says that censorship is necessary “so that you can’t just spew disinformation.” Who made her the arbiter of the truth? They’re coming for X. (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• WOW! Entire Hotel Full Of Illegal Migrants & Hotel Security Confirms Their Stay Is Only Through November 15th. Just long enough to vote and rig our Presidential Election. “100% occupied by illegals from Honduras — Their stay is until November 15th. So you do the math. I wonder why they're here until November 15th….”

• @EndWokeness

• 16 pet cats have suddenly disappeared in Bangor, Maine. No remains were found. Experts don't believe an animal did this. Bangor just had an influx of Haitians. (video)

• @BillAckman
  

• Let’s not forget that @POTUS Biden was the Democratic presidential candidate 63 days ago. We were told by the administration and the media that Biden was in perfect health and that videos of him exhibiting serious deterioration were ‘right wing propaganda.’ Then, threatened with the 25th amendment, on July 21st, he stepped aside to be replaced by @KamalaHarris who was complicit in the lie. She knew, and she told the American people otherwise. Her reward for keeping quiet was to become the presidential candidate without a primary or other transparent process for her selection. The Biden lie is perhaps the greatest lie ever told to the American people by our government. And this lie was also told to us repeatedly with a bold face by the current Democratic nominee for president.
  

• @MrAndyNgo
  

• The U.S. State Department has issued a Level 4 dire warning to not travel to Haiti due to violent crime and kidnappings. The same administration has overseen the importing of hundreds of thousands of Haitians into the U.S. interior. Read:

• @wideawake_media

• Award-winning journalist, Alex Newman: "What they're doing with the WHO is one of the most breathtaking global power grabs we have seen in all of recorded human history." "They are... seeking the power to turn the WHO into... a global Ministry of Health." "When you look at how they define health emergencies... which is that everything essentially [including climate change, racism and gun violence] is a public health emergency... every area of your life would then fall under the purview of this entity, if it was able to usurp this power that it is seeking." "They intend to slam through [the WHO Pandemic Treaty]... and they promise they're going to do that either by the end of this year, or—at the very latest—May of 2025." "They will not give up unless and until humanity says no." (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.25 +.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 62.25 +2.0 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 90.8 USD/Metric Tonne +1.4%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.9 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 54.6 +.1%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.0 +.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.08%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.07%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, China Stimulus Hopes, Technical Buying, Homebuilding/Defense Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 -.12%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.62% -4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 90.7 USD/Metric Tonne +1.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.2 euros/megawatt-hour +5.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.6 -1.1 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -56.2 -28.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.7 -.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 500 reporting) +5.6% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.87 +.21:  Growth Rate +14.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.4 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.66% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 351.08 +.45: Growth Rate +23.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.6 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .64 -1.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .70 unch.
  
• US Yield Curve 16.0 basis point (2s/10s) +.75 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.93% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 64.3% -1.2 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.77% unch.: CPI YoY +2.27% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 50.0%(unch.) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 40.2%(-1.6 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +542 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +44 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +210 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/utility/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AZO)/53.60
• (THO)/1.30
  

After the Close: 

• (KBH)/2.06
• (PRGS)/1.14
• (SFIX)/-.21
• (WOR)/.73
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity Index for Sept. is estimated to rise to -9.3 versus -25.1 in Aug.

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.1% decline in June.
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for July is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.42% gain in June.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Sept. is estimated to rise to 104.0 versus 103.3 in Aug.
• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Sept. is estimated to rise to -12 versus -19 in Aug.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, 2Y T-Note auction, M2 money supply report for Aug., API weekly crude oil stock report, weekly US retail sales reports, RBC Industrials Conference and the RBC Communications/Infra Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -9.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.9 +5.1
  
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 55.5% of Issues Advancing, 42.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .86 -2.3%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$205.8M
  
• 195 New 52-Week Highs, 11 New Lows
• 60.5% (+.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 65.0 +1.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 54.1 +.2%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 225.3 -.35%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,744.3 -.15%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 64.0 (GREED) +2.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 9.2 -20.2%
  
• Vix 16.2 unch.
  
• Total Put/Call .80 -9.1%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• US Worries Deepen as Adversaries Team Up to Challenge Dominance.
• What’s the ‘Quad’ Alliance and Why Doesn’t China Like It?
• Economists Urge China to Ramp Up Housing Rescue to Propel Growth.
• Asian Stocks Poised to Fall as China Woes Worsen.
• Apollo to Offer Multibillion-Dollar Investment in Intel.
• Traders Need a New Stock Market Playbook for These Rate Cuts.
• Apple’s New iPhone 16 Reflects a Slowing Pace of Innovation.
• Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodity Markets This Week.

Zero Hedge: 

• "The Biggest Wild Card In The Presidential Election": Just Days Left Until A Crippling Port Strike Paralyzes The East Coast.
• The Start Of A "New" Cycle.
• Johnson Shrinks Again As Congress Reaches Shutdown Deal Without 'Proof Of Citizenship' SAVE Act.
• Apple A16 Chips Are Now Made In America.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Tropic Trouble Brewing In Gulf Of Mexico Could "Slingshot" Towards Offshore Oil Rigs.
• Sexy September.
• Did The Biden-Harris Campaign Collude With Iran?
• "It is almost hard to believe this".
• Hollywood Horror: Abandoned 'Graffiti Mansion' Becomes Squatters' Paradise.
• Israeli Army Raids, Shuts Down Al Jazeera's West Bank News Room.
• Secret Service Agents To Be Disciplined Over July 13 Trump Shooting, Director Says.
• Over 700 Deep Staters Join Dick Cheney, Iran, And IRS Union In Endorsing Harris.
• SEC To Seek Sanctions Against Musk For Not Appearing For Testimony Over Twitter Acquisition.
• Erdogan Says Israel Is Dragging Whole Region Into All-Out War.
• MSM Journos Inadvertently Reveal Shocking Truth About Global Warming.
• The Reason For The Electoral College.
• Haifa Burning After Hezbollah Strikes Deepest Israeli Targets Since 2006.
• Caterpillar Pulls Back On DEI, Joining John Deere, Ford, and Others.
• Which Countries Are Meeting Their Paris Agreement Goals?
• Boeing's Head Of Space & Defense Ted Colbert Exits Company.
• US Elections: From The Outside Looking In...
• US Navy Directed To Prepare For War With China By 2027.
• Just Weeks Before Election, AG Garland Says (Un-Sarcastically): He 'Won't Allow DoJ To Be Used As Political Weapon'.
• Israel Unleashes Hell On South Lebanon With Giant Mystery Bomb As War Escalates.
• NYPD Faces Uncertain Future Amid New York's Growing Political Crisis.

Wall Street Journal:

• Contrary to Media Myth, U.S. Urban Crime Rates Are Up. The FBI’s flawed statistics hide the disturbing results of the defund-the-police movement since 2020.
• How Freedom Has Faded on Biden’s Watch. His successor as President will inherit a far more dangerous world. 
• Israel and Hezbollah Slide Toward Full-Scale War in Night of Intense Strikes.
• Israel’s Ultimatum to Hezbollah: Back Off or Go to War.
• Georgia Democrats Fear for Democracy Under Trump. Republicans Say Harris Threatens Prosperity.
• Borrowing Costs Aren’t All Going Down After the Rate Cut.
• The 10 Best Fall Jackets for Women, According to Style Experts.
• 17 Best Dress Shirts for Men, According to Style Experts.

CNBC:  

• Middle Eastern funds are plowing billions into the hottest AI start-ups.
• Boeing machinists on picket lines prepare for lengthy strike: ‘I can last as long as it takes’.

MarketWatch.com:  

• Investors cheer a soft landing scenario after Fed’s big rate cut. But they’re still keeping their guard up for a downturn. 
• As third-quarter earnings approach, here are the stocks that analysts like — and dislike — the most.
• Nvidia’s stock has room to run — but analysts see more upside for 6 other chip makers.
• TSMC, Samsung reportedly consider building huge chip factories in UAE.

NewsMax:

• Trump Announces Plan to End All Sanctuary Cities.
• Harris Fails to Move Swing States After Debate.

Fox News:

• Former national security chiefs backing Harris also signed infamous 2020 Hunter Biden letter.
• VP Harris' latest endorsement triggers warnings of a future where you'll be 'taxed to death'.
• TikTok creator roasts Oprah, Harris for featuring her in town hall interview.
• Rapper makes it clear he hates America at a benefit event linked to promoting terrorism.
• Chicago gangs clash with Venezuelan Tren de Aragua members.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• WATCH: Megyn Kelly Completely Destroys Liberal Host on the Trump Witch-Hunt Trials in a Brilliant Legal Display During Summit in Los Angeles.
• Under Successful Conservative PM Meloni, Italy Cracks Down on Human Smugglers, Makes Deals With Neighboring Countries, and Cuts Illegal Immigration by 64%.
• Stanford University Pushing DEI on Engineering Students.
• BREAKING: Arab-American Democrat Mayor of Hamtramck, Michigan Endorses President Trump.
• Must Watch: Chicago Man Completely Destroys Biden-Harris Regime for City’s IIIegal Crisis: “This is Joe Biden’s Fault and Kamala Harris’s Fault” (Video).
• General Milley Ignored Trump Order to Deploy Nat. Guard at US Capitol Prior to Jan. 6 – Then After J6 Riots, He Reportedly Placed Military Under His Control While He Was Holding Secret Calls With The Chinese.
• University Of Michigan Student Allegedly Attacked For Being Jewish.
• BETRAYAL: Speaker Mike Johnson to Bring Resolution to Fund the Government WITHOUT the SAVE Act, Which Would Require Proof of Citizenship for Voter Registration.
• Secret Service Agent “Accidentally” Shoots Himself with His Own Weapon.
• Texas Governor Greg Abbott Sounds the Alarm: Kamala Would Make Biden’s Failed Border Policy ‘Look Good’ (Video).
• Deeply Unpopular Canadian PM Trudeau Heads to UN Assembly General, While Back Home a ‘Vote of No Confidence’ Against Him Will Be Held in Parliament.
• San Francisco Police Are Dressing Up in Chicken Costumes to ‘Fight’ Crime and Social Media Replies Are Savage (VIDEO).
• NO ONE ELECTED HER: Why Does Jill Biden’s Signature Appear on Joe Biden’s Official Legislation Folders?
• Side by Side Comparison of Trump vs. Harris Shows Only Trump Has a Real Plan to Lower Inflation (VIDEO).
• Tim Walz Accidentally Creates New Ad for the Trump Campaign: ‘We Can’t Afford Four More Years of This!’ (VIDEO).
• Illinois Lawmaker Introduces Legislation to Criminalize Registering Noncitizens to Vote.

The Epoch Times:

• To Deter China, NATO Must Go Global.

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• Surely Cheney, the IRS, Putin and Iran endorsing Kamala can’t all be wrong!
• Exactly. (pic)
• Because the legacy media is a propaganda machine for the “Democratic” Party.
• Insanely bad spending of your hard-earned taxes is the problem. (pic)

• @BehizyTweets
  

• This is still one of my favorite political ads that has come out this cycle. Hung Cao is running a phenomenal campaign for Virginia's U.S. Senate. If Trump wins the state, Cao will win the senate race as well. (video)
• BREAKING: Citizens of Austria and Australia are reporting a scheme involving Democrat groups called “Vote from Abroad” & "Center for US Voters Abroad" running ads in their countries telling them to register & request a ballot to vote in the U.S. Presidential election. One of my followers from Australia sent me a screenshot of an ad he saw on Facebook today.

• @cb_doge

• Elon Musk endorses Trump, and then this happens: • Secret Service probes Elon over a joke he posted. • California Governor wants to take legal action against Elon for posting a meme. • FAA propose $633,009 in civil penalties against SpaceX. • SEC intends to seek sanctions against Elon in Twitter probe.

• @amuse

• BETRAYAL: Kamala Harris announced she will NOT attend the historic Alfred E. Smith Memorial Foundation Dinner where both presidential nominees are invited to speak to raise money for children's charities. While both candidates Republican and Democrat are invited the event is run by Democrats and largely attended by Democrat elites. The Harris campaign told Cardinal Timothy Dolan earlier today that Kamala would not attend explaining that she would be campaigning in a battleground state instead. When asked where the campaign was unsure. 
• Active duty soldier serving in Germany can’t get a visa for his pregnant wife to come to America unless he reenlists for four additional years, but millions of illegals are welcomed here each year. Something is very broken in America. 
• CORRUPTION: Ever wonder how politicians get so rich? They funnel billions into NGOs where their families work and who pay them to speak and to serve on boards. The $24 billion California spent on the homeless crisis went almost exclusively to NGOs who rely on a steady stream of homeless people to justify their existence. The more people homeless the more they make. The incentives are perverse.

• @kylenabecker

• The Oprah was brought in to humanize Kamala Harris. She gave her a softball interview that might as well have been a campaign event. Kamala Harris needed a teleprompter. (video)

• @MikeBenzCyber

• Not enough to have fraud from mass mail-in ballots, not enough fraud from unsecure electronic voting machines, not enough fraud from no voter ID, not enough fraud from speedrunning illegals here, now they have up to 1.6 million mystery ballots from foreign countries flooding in.

• @stillgray

• Complete anarchy in Beverly Hills as a mob of dozens of teens raid a 7-Eleven, smashing everything and stealing the merchandise. This is what a society with zero consequences looks like. (video)
  

• @ShadowofEzra

• Kim Kardashian's lawyer hit me with a cease and desist after I posted a video where someone suggested she might be under FBI investigation for blackmail, drugging men, and possibly being involved in the infamous Diddy tapes. Their threats and intimidation are pointless—nothing can stop what's about to unfold. Let me be clear: if I suddenly go silent, I am not suicidal. (pic)
  

• @Libsoftiktok

• A Kamala staffer just went on CNN and said Kamala doesn’t own a firearm. Kamala repeatedly lied about owning a gun. Make no mistake. Kamala will come for your guns. She lied about having one so you would believe her when she lied about not taking them away. (video)

• @unhealthytruth

• What the Jeffrey Epstein is going on? Good morning America aka GMA, has on some little boy dressed a girl , or trans, doing drag. Leave the kids alone! (video)

• @FFT1776

• Missouri registered 78,421 in just ONE WEEK in February of this year. Out of that number, 23,253 were DEAD PEOPLE! Here we go, AGAIN! Get involved! Make noise & REPOST. (video)

• @joumana_gebara_
  

• WOW! What the hell is this??? Hezbollah missiles launched on Israel are returning back to Hezbollah! (video)

• @EverythingHomeT

• BREAKING: Maricopa County ADMITS 10.79% Of Tabulator Memory Cards (Official Election Results) Were NEVER Delivered To Receiving Centers On Election Night Nov 8, 2022. What Totals Were Used To Decide Winners If 48 Cards Were MISSING?

• @TONYxTWO

• Anna Paulina Luna SLAMS Kamala Harris at the the Trump Rally in NC. “320,000 children have gone missing under her watch as Border Czar ! Don’t tell me you can about women and do not tell me you care about children!” (video)

• @WallStreetApes
  

• AMERICAN VOTERS  Here is a website with an interactive map that shows all of Democrat’s illegal migrant Sanctuary Cities by Counties and State. It’s been updated to show an ADDITIONAL 170 NEW SANCTUARY CITIES. “These local jurisdictions do not cooperate or communicate with ICE if there is a detainer out on an illegal immigrant that they might pick up for another reason in these areas.”. View this video/map and watch our election being stolen right before your eyes. (video)

• @Travis_4_Trump
  

• Meet Heather and Charles Maude. They recently had their ranch home raided by federal authorities and were indicted in federal court. What did they do so egregious to cause this? Well, they had a fence post on their land with a pipe for water through it that was put in before they were born. The Maude family has owned the ranch for 5 generations, and now because of the Biden admins Agriculture team, it may be taken from them.

OpenVAERS: 

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,014,172 Reports(+797 from prior report) Through September 6, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.5 -1.5 basis points.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 60.25 n/a.
• China Iron Ore Spot 90.9 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%.
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 54.0 +.1%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.9 -.3%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
• S&P 500 futures +.08%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.15%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.