Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +.7% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.3 -2.0
  
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 59.9% of Issues Advancing, 38.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .82 -2.4%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$218.6M
  
• 142 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
• 58.9% (+2.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 66.0 +9.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 61.2 +8.5%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 230.5 +1.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,727.7 +.18%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 73.0 (GREED) +6.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 13.9 -27.5%
  
• Vix 19.1 -6.7%
  
• Total Put/Call .94 +9.3%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.5 +.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 62.5 +2.25 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 108.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.8 -.2%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 58.5 +4.1%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.8 -.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.24%.

• S&P 500 futures +.13%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.23%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Close on Escalating Mid-East Regional War Fears, Port Strike/Supply Chain Disruption Concerns, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Worries, Biotech/Transport Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.8 -.14%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.58% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 108.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.9 euros/megawatt-hour +3.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.4 +3.6 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -36.1 +9.2 basis points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.2 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(22 of 500 reporting) +18.4% -.1 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.92 +.73:  Growth Rate +14.3% unch., P/E 21.4 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.66% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 365.22 +.20: Growth Rate +28.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.1 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .74 +7.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .75 +3.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 13.75 basis point (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.54% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 59.1 -2.7 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% unch.: CPI YoY +2.25% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 45.0%(-3.5 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 44.8%(-.9 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +115 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +923 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +119 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/utility sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
  

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (APOG)/1.23

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Sept. is estimated to rise to 150K versus 142K in Aug.
• The Unemployment Rate for Sept. is estimated at 4.2% versus 4.2% in Aug.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in Aug.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, US Baker Hughes rig count, CFTC speculative net positioning reports and the (CALM) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +1.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.3 +1.6
  
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 28.1% of Issues Advancing, 69.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .83 +6.4%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$220.5M
  
• 87 New 52-Week Highs, 22 New Lows
• 57.6% (-2.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 57.0 -10.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 56.2 -2.1%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 227.5 -.13%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,690.5 +.46%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 67.0 (GREED) -3.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 14.5 +1.6%
  
• Vix 20.2 +7.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .74 -25.3%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +1.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.0 +1.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 60.25 -.75 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 109.5 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.8 -.09%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 58.2 +1.4%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.2 +.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.12%.

• S&P 500 futures -.06%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.13%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.