Saturday, October 05, 2024

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

Statista.com:
The Diplomat:
  • How China Uses Geoengineering to Pursue a Hybrid Warfare Strategy. China’s growing ability to alter and manipulate the physical environment could help advance its geopolitical ambitions. Weather medication may also be used to sabotage troop movements and logistics operations in border regions by artificially altering the rainy conditions, which would slow down the tactical movement of the adversary on a real-time basis.
Zerohedge:
WSJ.com:  
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (WFC) and (GLD).

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:

NewsMax:   

Fox News:

Google Patents:

Business Insider:

NYPost.com:

 Wired.com

MIT Technology Review

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

Epoch Times:

  • @JamesOKeefeIII
  • @bennyjohnson
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @DonaldTNews
  • @BenBergquam
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @VigilantFox
  • @JamesPleickhar2
  • @MatthewCappucci
  • @NickSortor
  • @officer_Lew
  • @JoeyMannarinoUS
  • @PatUnleashed
  • @_ROB_29  
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @IGSquawk 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:

Friday, October 04, 2024

Evening Headlines

Around X:

  • @BehizyTweets
  • @MarioNawful
  • FEMA WHISTLEBLOWERS ALLEGE FUND MISUSE AND DELAYS AFTER HURRICANE HELENE. FEMA whistleblowers have accused the agency of misappropriating funds following Hurricane Helene, withholding pre-disaster aid, and leaving first responders and service members waiting in hotels without deployment orders. Representative Matt Gaetz has raised concerns in a letter to DHS Secretary Mayorkas, alleging that FEMA has prioritized migrant support over disaster relief for Americans.
  • ELON: FEMA IS BLOCKING CITIZENS FROM HELPING PEOPLE IN TROUBLE IN NORTH CAROLINA. @elonmusk : “Just received this note from a SpaceX engineer helping on the ground in North Carolina. FEMA is not merely failing to adequately help people in trouble, but is actively blocking citizens who try to help!
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @DocNetyoutube
  • @EndWokeness
  • @MichaelBars_
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @HealthRanger
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @Kanthan2030
  • @The_Real_Fly

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on US Economic Data, China Stimulus Hopes, US Port Strike Can-Kicking, Financial/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.0 -7.5%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .81 +23.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 61.3 +9.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 180.8 +.8%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.1 +1.0%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 18.3 -7.6% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 160.0 +14.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .95 +10.5%
  • NYSE Arms .66 -21.4%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$179.5M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.0 -1.9%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 305.3 -6.3%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 238 -11
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.9 -2.7%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 172.1 -2.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 130.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.8 +1.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 163.7 -.72%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 165.7 +3.6%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.14 +.01%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -19.5 basis points +.5 basis point
  • 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -19.75 basis points +14.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.75 +1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 135.0 +8.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 721.0 +4.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 66.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.7 -.26%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.62% +4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 109.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 41.0 euros/megawatt-hour +2.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.1 +9.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -29.5 +6.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.4 -.2 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(22 of 500 reporting) +18.4% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.89 -.03:  Growth Rate +14.5% +.2 percentage point, P/E 21.5 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.66% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 365.22 +.20: Growth Rate +28.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.1 +.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .70 -4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .75 unch.
  • US Yield Curve 5.25 basis point (2s/10s) -8.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.54% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 58.3 -.8 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% unch.: CPI YoY +2.25% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 +3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 81.1%(+37.5 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 72.2%(+33.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,105 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +1,470 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +208 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value +.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Shipping -2.7% 2) Homebuilding -2.5% 3) Utilities -.7%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • WMG, LEN, SDA, AXSM, LGIH, AZEK, FND, RIVN, RKT, NMRK, NVAX and ZIM
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) TIGR 2) COHR 3) EVGO 4) RKT 5) JETS
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) SAVE 2) SAGE 3) ZIM 4) RIVN 5) POWW
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) FXR 2) KRE 3) IGV 4) XLF 5) ITB

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +1.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy +2.6% 2) Airlines +2.5% 3) Retail +2.3%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • TIGR, EH, CAPR, OKLO, ACMR, JKS, BYON, B, NFE, NNE, HNRG, NGVT, HNRG, TVTX, SILV, SMR, BYRN, WB, MNSO, ANF, GCT, DQ, MMYT, CLMT, AAOI, ENVX, YMM, MSTR, ALB, TARS, ALAB, TCOM, AAL, ESTA, MARA, RDDT, BGNE, KGS, UPST, PAL and NBR
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) EVGO 2) EH 3) SAVE 4) BLUE 5) BLNK
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) PEV 2) ANF 3) B 4) EVGO 5) APOG
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) KWEB 3) XLY 4) XLE 5) XBI
Charts:

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases

3:00 pm EST

  • Consumer Credit for Aug. is estimated to fall to $12.0B versus $25.45B in July.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Musalem speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Kashkari speaking, Conference Board Employment Trends Index for Sept., Global Gaming Expo and the Embedded World Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST