Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.5 -.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 62.75 +.5 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.6 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 61.2 +.8%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.9 +.03%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.10%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.13%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Close on Rotation into FANG+, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.58 -.16%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.62% -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 38.9 euros/megawatt-hour -3.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.3 unch.
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -28.8 +4.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.7 -.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(23 of 500 reporting) +16.1% -2.3 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.07 unch.:  Growth Rate +14.5% unch., P/E 21.5 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.68% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 365.94 +.06: Growth Rate +28.5% unch., P/E 31.6 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 -12.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .78 -5.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 5.75 basis point (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +3.23% +69.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 49.9 +1.3 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% unch.: CPI YoY +2.25% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 78.0%(-.3 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 63.8%(+3.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +610 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -297 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +174 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my utility/consumer discretionary/biotech/tech/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Social Media -3.5% 2) Energy -3.4% 3) Alt Energy -3.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SCCO, CVE, ZK, BHP, HUN, CNXC, VALE, RIO, ALB, RRR, ACMR, RRR, VLO, YUMC, PDD, MNSO, XPEV, SOC, BABA, SMCI, MPC, BIDU, VTLE, LI, NOAH, BEKE, TCOM, SRRK, CSIQ, ASPN, WB, TIGR, FUTU, NNE, BILI, EH, DQ and JKS
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) RBLX 2) EDR 3) EH 4) SU 5) RIO
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BILI 2) BABA 3) BIDU 4) JD 5) NIO
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLV 2) XLF 3) KBWP 4) IBB 5) XLP

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.4%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +1.7% 2) Cyber Security +1.7% 3) Networking +1.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PTCT, SLNO, DJT, ALHC, SNCY, BMEA, CAPR, MIR, AAOI, GRND, HOOD, SG, GLOB, DOCU, AFRM, PAR, AS, PRCT, MSTR, SATS, DAVE, RBRK, EW, NTGR, URGN, CVNA, AAL, BMA, CVLT, TGLS, NVMI, CCL and MDU
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) APLS 2) MTCH 3) AMT 4) CHAU 5) LW

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DJT 2) PANW 3) UFPI 4) AFRM 5) DOCU
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLI 2) XLB 3) XLE 4) FDN 5) KRE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (HELE)/1.05
  

After the Close: 

• (AZZ)/1.32
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +1.1% gain in July.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +1,305,400 barrels versus a +3,889,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -572,400 barrels versus a +1,119,00 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,718,800 barrels versus a -1,284,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.2% versus a -3.3% decline prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• Sept. 18th FOMC Meeting Minutes.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (NVEE) 4-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Logan speaking, Fed's Jefferson speaking, Fed's Daly speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Collins speaking, 10Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 3Q update, Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI for Oct.  and the (MYGN) investor meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -5.4% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.8 +2.2
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 53.8% of Issues Advancing, 44.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.50 +85.2%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$145.9M
  
• 75 New 52-Week Highs, 26 New Lows
• 57.5% (-.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 65.0 -1.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 60.8 +2.5%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 231.7 -.01%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,918.3 +1.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 73.0 (GREED) unch.
  
• 1-Day Vix 11.2 -20.0%
  
• Vix 21.4 -5.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .87 +13.0%