Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -11.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 17.2 +4.7
  
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 38.5% of Issues Advancing, 59.3% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .67 -15.2%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$177.2M
  
• 62 New 52-Week Highs, 32 New Lows
• 56.3% (-1.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 67.0 unch.
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 61.5 +1.3%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 233.8 +.3%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,007.3 +.15%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 72.0 (GREED) unch.
  
• 1-Day Vix 10.2 -32.7%
  
• Vix 21.0 +.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .88 -9.3%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @Mrgunsngear

• The water in the Tampa bay has been sucked out by Milton. Hopefully it doesn't come in as fast as it went out... (video)

• @TheBlaze

• Cloud seeding exposed: The truth behind decades of weather modification. 

• @ShadowofEzra

• In 2021, a CNN Director was caught on tape revealing that the network had chosen to make "Climate Change" the next pandemic, claiming people were fatigued with COVID. He also admitted that CNN concentrated on helping to remove Trump from office and is now searching for an issue with "longevity." Fast forward to 2024, and climate change, now being blamed for hurricanes, could play a significant role in influencing the upcoming election. (video)

• @Libsoftiktok
  

• Since they keep denying it... Here's more evidence from Colorado that FEMA money is being used to provide services such as food, security, and hygiene products for migrants. (video)

• @LauraLoomer

• Buzzards are circling the Asheville, NC area eating the dead bodies of human beings and animals that still haven’t been recovered after Hurricane Helene. This message was sent to me by a former police detective in Cocke County, Tennessee. It is the last County in Tennessee before you get to North Carolina. Horrific.

• @Sassafrass_84
  

• There is a serious disconnect with our media. I am preparing for Hurricane Milton and haven't heard a thing about Wyoming being on fire. This should be front page news. Americans having to evacuate. Where is the media? Pray for Wyoming. (video)
  

• @MarioNawful

• MASSIVE SOLAR STORM TO HIT EARTH THURSDAY, POTENTIAL AURORAS IN THE SOUTH. A huge plasma ejection from the Sun is expected to hit Earth Thursday morning, potentially causing stunning auroras as far south as Alabama. A G4 geomagnetic storm watch has been issued, with the possibility of satellite disruptions and power grid impacts.
• ROCKDALE COUNTY OFFICIAL DIES SUDDENLY AFTER BIO LAB HEARING AT GEORGIA CAPITOL. Kenny Johnson, 62, the Rockdale County Soil and Water Conservation District Supervisor, tragically died after collapsing at the Georgia State Capitol. Johnson had just testified about the BioLab chemical fire when he experienced shortness of breath and collapsed. Despite receiving CPR and being rushed to the hospital, he passed away. An autopsy will be conducted to determine the cause of death.

• @GardensR4Heatlth

• Sad Update on Spruce Pine, NC. 163 school age children still missing, even more missing under 4yrs. Not sure how many adults are. Michael Harbaugh interviews rescuer Kara with OWL, Outdoors. This is on target with what other rescuers are saying. It’s hard to listen to. (video)
• “Craigtown”, NC, was taken totally out by a mudslide. The Craig’s alone lost 11 members of their family. I wasn’t exaggerating when I explained how Mudslides took out entire mountain sides and every house with them. We are hearing these stories daily. (video)
  

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• Dead Birds littered across cruise ship that allegedly ported out of Tampa. What would cause this to happen? (video)

• @annvandersteel
  

• FLORIDA FACING GRID DOWN WITH MILTON. In speaking to a senior analyst and senior SOF commander the seriousness of Hurricane Milton can not be understated. Weather warfare is real and the track that Milton is on will leave Florida in a grid down situation where the center state power substations will be taken offline. (map)
  

• @RenzTom
  

• WEATHER MODIFICATION FACTS: 1. Weather modification is real and our federal government participates in it. We monitor it by law through NOAA...

• @WallStreetApes

• The Media Won’t Report What’s Really Going On With Hurricane Helene Casualties. “I have another update from my husband. The search and rescue horseback team that they've been working with found 40 more bodies yesterday. The locals are saying that there are around 900 unidentified bodies at the Biltmore Hospital alone. Today, they heard a report of 100 people living in a barn.... (video)
• Swannanoa, North Carolina Hurricane Helene Update. First Hand Account, “Refrigerator trucks full of bodies”. “I had a friend who had been volunteering in Swannanoa for the past few days tell me that he's been in war zones before he's a veteran, and he was not prepared for the devastation that he saw in Swannanoa. He's been in active war zones.” — “When I tell you that there are body parts in the trees, that there are refrigeration trucks full of bodies because half the freaking area doesn't have power. Worse than some of the active war zones that this man has seen.” (video)

• @wideawake_media

• Neil Oliver on the "climate hoax": "It's all a massive con, and it's not driven by anything green.". "In the name of... saving the planet, the baddies will come for the food, they'll come for the cars, for the gas boilers, for air travel." "And the land they seize from farmers will be festooned with wind turbines, and smothered with solar panels. And those won't provide the cheap, accessible, reliable energy upon which civilisation depends." "And so we'll be looking, if they get their way, at a new dark age—a literally dark age with no lights." (video)

• @DiedSuddenly_

• Check out this Montana newspaper from 1951, where they openly describe how weather modification works. Do you think they just stopped using this technology? Of course not. (video)

• @TheKevinDalton

• ABC News: President Trump is lying about FEMA allocating funds to illegal immigrants. Also ABC News: Here is a report we did about FEMA allocating 800 million taxpayer dollars to illegal immigrants. (video)

• @abigailmarone

• BREAKING: A Secret Service whistleblower tells @HawleyMO that USSS leadership is DENYING government auditors access to certain Trump events to conceal the fact he is still not getting maximum protection. This is huge. (pic)

• @HustleBitch_ 

• #BREAKING: Duke Energy is preparing for over one million customers to be without power in Florida during Hurricane Milton. Duke Energy owns the dams that released the water in North Carolina. They also own Hawaiian Electric. You know...from the Lahaina, Maui fire. Vanguard Blackrock and State Street are the top share holders of Duke Energy. And we're supposed to be believe these FREAK MONSTER hurricanes the size of entire countries are perfectly normal??? (video)
  

• @JohnStrandUSA

• WOW: Tina Peters backing up the elections data before they wiped the systems gave the public a rare opportunity to analyze before and after the tampering — and it shows clear and deliberate manipulation of the voting systems. -Audit trail deleted -System logs deleted -Voting files replaced with new files.

• @realchrisrufo

• We conducted an investigation to understand how 2,000 Haitian migrants suddenly arrived in Charleroi, Pennsylvania. The answer: an open conspiracy between the federal government, publicly funded NGOs, and private corporations. Here's how it works:

• @HealthRanger
  

• The NOAA is rapidly scrubbing the weather control web pages I mentioned yesterday. Orwellian. (video)

• @TonySeruga

• Not fishy at all… An Afghan citizen living in Oklahoma was arrested for planning a terrorist attack on behalf of ISIS on U.S. Election Day. Spoiler Alert: a mobile device that visited the man’s home many, many times, also visited Senator Lankford’s office on 3 occasions. (pic)
  

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.75 +.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 62.25 -.5 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 106.1 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.5 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 61.9 +2.0%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.4 +.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.14%.

• S&P 500 futures unch.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.03%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Higher on Milton Downshift to Cat 3, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.5 -.13%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.65% +3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.97%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 38.3 euros/megawatt-hour -1.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.5 +.2
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -27.3 +1.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.6 -.1 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(23 of 500 reporting) +16.1% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.09 +.02:  Growth Rate +14.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.7 +.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.68% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 366.18 +.24: Growth Rate +28.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.8 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .77 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .78 unch.
  
• US Yield Curve 4.75 basis point (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +3.22% -1.0 basis point
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 50.8 +.9 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% unch.: CPI YoY +2.25% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 77.9%(+.8 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 60.3%(-4.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +558 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +117 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +141 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my consumer discretionary/biotech/tech/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.8%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Networking +2.3% 2) Alt Energy +2.3% 3) Computer Services +1.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• HELE, ALAB, TVTX, NCLH, CUK, CCL, YPF, WSR, GTLB, AI, AS, GSK, ENVX, MYRG, SGML, CELH, AFRM, RCL, SNOW, GLW, CRDO, BCYC, RNR, PLTR, EG, ZETA, AMSC, GGAL, BV, CHWY, TAL, VRNS, CPRT, SOBO, PFE, CIEN and RNG
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) WW 2) GLW 3) LNC 4) ROIV 5) SHLS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MNTS 2) UTRX 3) NCLH 4) TVTX 5) ALAB
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLB 3) ITB 4) XOP 5) XLV
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (DAL)/1.52
• (DPZ)/3.65
• (NEOG)/-.03
• (TLRY)/-.04
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in Aug.
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in Aug.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for Sept.
• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 230K versus 225K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1830K versus 1826K prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (NVEE) 4-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Cook speaking, ECB Meeting, Cleveland CPI MoM for Sept., 30Y T-Bond auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, (AMD) analyst meeting, (PAYX) annual meeting, (GWRE) investor day and the (HPE) analyst day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +7.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.7 -1.1
  
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 57.3% of Issues Advancing, 39.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .89 -36.4%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$140.3M
  
• 138 New 52-Week Highs, 23 New Lows
• 57.7% (+.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 67.0 +2.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 60.8 +.2%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 233.7 +.99%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,933.0 -.23%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 72.0 (GREED) -1.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 14.7 +30.5%
  
• Vix 21.0 -2.1%
  
• Total Put/Call .92 unch.