Sunday, October 13, 2024

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:  
Chatham House:
Global Research:
Zero Hedge: 
CNBC:  
MarketWatch.com:  
Fox News:
TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @elonmusk
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @annvandersteel
  • @MTGrepp
  • @ImMeme0
  • @jackunheard
  • @GardensR4Health
  • Major Update from NC. The Toe River Campground Disaster. NONE of 150 people at the campground survived. Precision Drones’ team, using equipment from
    @elonmusk, were the 1st in on Oct 9. The death toll in NC will too big to comprehend. (video)
  • @mattdizwhitlock
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @naomirwolf
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @TONYxTWO
  • @GuntherEagleman
  • @ChuckCallesto
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @TonySeruga
OpenVAERS: 
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.75 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 62.5 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 106.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.6 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 60.8 -.03%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.4 +.05%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.06%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.08%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.16%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, October 12, 2024

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

Statista.com:
The Diplomat:
  • How China Uses Geoengineering to Pursue a Hybrid Warfare Strategy. China’s growing ability to alter and manipulate the physical environment could help advance its geopolitical ambitions. Weather medication may also be used to sabotage troop movements and logistics operations in border regions by artificially altering the rainy conditions, which would slow down the tactical movement of the adversary on a real-time basis.
Zerohedge:
WSJ.com:  
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (NU).

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:

NewsMax:     

Fox News:

Google Patents:

Business Insider:

NYPost.com:

 Wired.com

MIT Technology Review

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

Around X:
  • @realDonaldTrump
  • @elonmusk
  • @PeterBernegger
  • @johnrich
  • @LibertyValkyrie
  • Years of Kamala’s Corruption Exposed: A 1) Kamala didn’t even register to vote until she was 29. Former colleague of Kamala (practicing lawyer of 30yrs) brings receipts in a Tucker Carlson interview. HIGHLY suggest you watch in its entirety — her entire resume unravels. Link to interview is in post if you scroll down. (video)
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @Sassafrass_84
  • Trigger warning.  the last part is heartbreaking. You need to share this out. North Carolina needs our help. The Biden Harris administration is not helping these people. Listen to what he is saying. There shouldn't be a stand off with fema. They desperately need our help. People are committing suicide. They have nothing left. No will to live. This is breaking my heart. Keep donating to the Cajun Navy and Samaritans purse. (video)
  • @Libsoftiktok
  • @krimd00t
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @WideAwake_Media
  • @CortesSteve
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @JackUnheard
  • @HustleBitch_
  • @TulsiGabbard
  • @DC_Draino 
  • @ImMeme0
  • @thecjpearson 
  • @IGSquawk 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:

Friday, October 11, 2024

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Hurricane Rebuilding Expectations, Short-Covering, Transport/Financial Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.58 +.06%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.63% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.6 USD/Metric Tonne +1.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.90 euros/megawatt-hour -1.0%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.3 -1.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -26.7 +.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.4 -3.8 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(30 of 500 reporting) +7.3% -6.2 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.10 +.01:  Growth Rate +14.5% -.1 percentage point, P/E 21.8 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.67% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 366.76 +.34: Growth Rate +28.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.2 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .76 -7.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.01 +11.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 13.25 basis point (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +3.22% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 48.1 unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% unch.: CPI YoY +2.55% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 84.9%(+6.0 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 67.2%(+6.5 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +435 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +383 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +153 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech/utility sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Electric Vehicles -1.6% 2) Gambling -.9% 3) Shipping -.1%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • PHAT, FLUT, TLN, ROOT, AOS, TSLA and CATX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) TD 2) AHCO 3) TFC 4) SOUN 5) UNIT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) ARDX 2) OM 3) ELAN 4) DXCM 5) EXTR
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLC 2) XLP 3) XLE 4) XLF 5) XLU