Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, US Economic Data, Yen Weakness, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.4 -.03%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.64% +3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.8 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.7 euros/megawatt-hour +1.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.9 +8.5 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -19.1 +1.0 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.2 -.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(65 of 500 reporting) +6.2% +.3 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.35 +.03:  Growth Rate +14.6% unch., P/E 21.9 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.63% -3.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 367.75 +.16: Growth Rate +29.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.1 +.5
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .79 +7.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .88 -4.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 10.75 basis point (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +3.42% +20.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 50.0 -.7 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% unch.: CPI YoY +2.57% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 72.0%(-13.6 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 52.3%(-13.6 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +431 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -130 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +103 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Healthcare Providers -2.9% 2) Road & Rail -2.8% 3) Alt Energy -2.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• WBA, EVH, NVCR, AMSC, SR, OKLO, JSK, ZK, CSX, TNDM, FUTU, AFRM, XPEV, REXR, LBRT, BEAM, WGS, CAPR, CNC, ASPN, MAN, WNS, BEKE, AMRC, NNE, MOH, ELV and DAVE
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EOSE 2) LAC 3) CNC 4) ELV 5) LCID
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LCID 2) ELV 3) MOH 4) CAPR 5) CNC
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLV 2) SMH 3) XLE 4) XLK 5) XLP

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +1.9% 2) Gold & Silver +1.2% 3) Regional Banks +.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• FOLD, IRDM, WBS, TSM, HMY, SNA, TRV, DESP, FWRG, RTO, DRD, BX, CMC, CCRN, MTB, PLAY, SNV, STLD, EXPE, AU, LEU, BWIN, PSTG, OWL, ALKT, PAM, AVDL, TPG, ARES, INOD, CG, TLN, BCS, PRGO, AEHR, PENG and UAL
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ELV 2) GEVO 3) ULCC 4) UUUU 5) TSM

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) IRDM 2) SNA 3) SNV 4) MTB 5) BX
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) KRE 2) XLF 3) GDX 4) XAR 5) IXG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ALLY)/.49
• (ALV)/1.92
• (CMA)/1.17
• (FITB)/.83
• (PG)/1.90
• (RF)/.53
• (SFNC)/.33
• (SLB)/.88
• (AXP)/3.38
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for Sept. is estimated to fall to 1350K versus 1356K in Aug.
• Building Permits for Sept. is estimated to fall to 1460K versus 1470K in Aug.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Kashkari speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 update, US Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count and the weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.5 -.4
  
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 42.3% of Issues Advancing, 54.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.04 -2.8%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$16.1M
  
• 227 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
• 61.3% (-.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 71.0 +1.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 59.4 +1.3%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 231.88 +.69%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,789.7 +.66%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 73.0 (GREED) -1.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 10.2 -4.3%
  
• Vix 19.0 -2.9%
  
• Total Put/Call .89 +1.1%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• Tomorrow night through Monday, I will be giving a series of talks throughout Pennsylvania. If you’d like to attend one of my talks, there’s no attendance fee. You just need to have signed our petition supporting free speech & right to bear arms & have voted in this election.
• Exactly. (graph)

• @BennyJohnson

• BREAKING: The Biden/Harris admin just sent another $425 million to Ukraine as Americans are still recovering from Hurricane Helene and Milton with minimal government assistance. (pic)

• @BehizyTweets
  

• The Kamala-Biden regime has officially imprisoned pro-lifer Bevelyn Beatty Williams to serve three years for protesting abortion outside Planned Parenthood. Her husband said, "The Biden-Harris administration made me a single father," Also telling Americans to vote for Trump. "Obama has the audacity to speak to black men and tell black men they need to vote for Kamala Harris when Kamala Harris administration is separating me from my wife and my wife from her daughter at two years old for unlawful assembly." (video)
  

• @JesseBWatters

• The election is three weeks away — but the legal battles have already begun. Politico reports @KamalaHarris has “hundreds of lawyers on call in all 50 states.” Her massive legal team is already waging electoral war in the courts. Today in Georgia, a judge ruled that election officials have to certify results — even if voter fraud is suspected and around the state. Democrats are suing to prevent drop box surveillance, hand-counting ballots, and voter id protections. Why are Democrats trying to make elections less secure? (video)

• @DC_Draino

• Wait, Liz Cheney was secretly messaging Cassidy Hutchinson behind her lawyer’s back to influence her J6 testimony to hurt Trump? But I thought J6 was the worst day in American history?! So why did Liz Cheney need to coerce witness statements?! Oh right, because it was a setup. 
• Yet another example of FEMA seizing donated supplies from Church orgs in North Carolina. This time in Avery County It is unconstitutional for the gov’t to seize your property without due process Plus, these local churches know best on who needs the food & diapers Not FEMA!

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• No longer a Conspiracy. Weather Modification Programmes are out of control. (video)

• @JackPosobiec
  

• Your govt has locked up Trump’s Chief Strategist and he is in prison right now. (video)

• @Holden_Culotta 

• Ron Paul warns that the US military was just “authorized to kill Americans on US soil … I think it’s very, very dangerous.” Daniel McAdams: “It’s not a law, it’s a DoD Directive. So, this is the administrative state, where they take over, they don’t pass laws. (video)

• @ChuckCallesto

• BREAKING REPORT: ‘53 Counties with MORE THAN 100% REGISTRATION’ in Michigan.. Co-host Eric Eggers points out, “This continues to be a problem in battleground states that are expected to be crucial.” He adds that some counties in Michigan still show voter registration rates exceeding 100 percent.

• @TONYxTWO

• Western North Carolina UPDATE from someone who has boots on the ground assisting in operations. “The dəath toll of 200ish .. that’s not accurate.” “My organization sent out 10,000 body bags to local authorities this week and they’re requesting more.” Why isn’t the media accurately reporting on what’s going on there?! Why isn’t there more leadership and support?! Please do not forget about the people of North Carolina. WATCH AND SHARE SO PEOPLE KNOW WHAT’S GOIN ON. (video)
• WOW!!! Brandon Matthews ABSOLUTELY OBLlTERATES the Cabarrus County School Board for allowing boys to use the girls bathroom. We need more Fathers like this to step up and call them each out one by one!!!! (video)
  

• @EndWokeness
  

• CBS is already normalizing fraud: Election results could take days and you should expect massive late-night ballot dumbs which heavily favor one party. "This is all perfectly normal". (video)
• Stunning admission by the NYPD: 20 Venezuelan gang members in NYC are behind 50 recent 42nd street robberies. Every single one is still on the street. (video)
• Detroit is the worst-run city in the US but already hit a ballot return rate of 40%. (table)

• @CollinRugg
  

• NEW: CNBC host verbally stunned after billionaire Howard Lutnick explains how Trump's tariffs will be used as a negotiation tactic to make the U.S. a "bunch of money." Lutnick shot down the media narrative that tariffs would increase inflation. "It's a bargaining chip. We can't sell a Ford or GM in Europe. You go to Europe, you can't sell a Ford..." "They're gonna come and negotiate and their tariffs are gonna come down. And finally, Ford and General Motors are gonna be able to sell in these places. How's that sound?" "This is just negotiating strategically." (video)
  

• @WallStreetApes

• Hurricane Helene Volunteers in North Carolina, “I've seen 1 FEMA agent since I've been here — We've been reported to the authorities for domestic terrorism. We're a bunch of special operation veterans. It doesn't get any more American than what we're doing. We’re here to help the people.” (video)
• You Can Actually See The 2024 Election Being Rigged. ‌ UPDATED: Social Security Website shows MASSIVE amounts of people registering to vote WITHOUT ID in Key/ Swing States. ‌ Texas 3,370,610 (+69,109 this week). Pennsylvania 2,054,288 (+106,788 this week). Arizona 1,797,595 (+115,375 this week). Missouri 2,093,666 (+112,075 this week). Georgia 284,379 (+9,392 this week). North Carolina 479,155 (+24,502 this week). Nevada 81,506 (+3,084 this week). Many of these are HUGE INCREASES from prior weeks, they are ramping up the fraud as we get closer to the election. (graph)
• They’re Getting Ready to Steal the Election.  The US Defense Department just quietly codified its right to deploy LETHAL FORCE against its own citizens, the American People. “Crackdown on our civil liberties are getting worse as the Department of Defense recently approved the use of lethal force against civilians by military and local law enforcement. 
• Americans are reaching a breaking point with the Kamala Harris Administration. They’re reaching a breaking point over FEMA. Listen to the anger and frustration in this mans voice and the comments section is full of people who feel just like him How much more will Americans take? (video)
• If Democrats steal the 2024 Election this country is going to explode. Americans are DEFINITELY reaching a breaking point and they’re speaking up. They’ve had enough of this government. They’ve had enough of FEMA and the Kamala Harris Administration. Americans are PISSED. (video)
• Weather Modification is such a “Conspiracy Theory” that they literally broadcasted it to the entire world on The View and even showed the planes used to do it. THE VIEW: “They're taking storms that are already there & given it a little boost — Cloud seeding is ramping up so big“. (video)
  

• @FFT1776

• 40,000 citizen affidavits of election fraud in Georgia. Governor Kemp ignored the fraud evidence. REPOST please and keep this in everyone’s memory. He can’t get away with this again. All eyes on Georgia!! (video)

• @VigilantFox

• Longtime Democrat Bill Ackman Fires Off a Dire Warning to America. He says the Democratic Party's policies are so destructive that they're indistinguishable from what our worst enemies would do to "destroy America from within." Ackman then dropped the receipts with 33 damning examples: (list)
• Something is off about this upcoming election, and it smells like the Democrats are planning to steal it. “Today in Georgia, a judge ruled that election officials have to certify results even if voter fraud is suspected,” @JesseBWatters reports. What's even more troubling is that Democrats are “suing to prevent Dropbox surveillance.” Why are Democrats trying to make elections less secure? (video)
• Fox News exposes Kamala Harris for supporting taxpayer-funded sex changes for prisoners. Kamala responded by complaining about how much money Trump spent on that ad. This is not a serious candidate. (video)
• This is painful to watch. Kamala crumbles for two minutes straight on a question about why Americans are unhappy with the direction the country is moving in. Kamala revealed that doesn't have one useful thing to say other than to belittle Donald Trump. Kamala is literally like an NPC with pre-programmed answers only. This moment is an absolute train-wreck. (video)

• @CarolineWren

• Tell me the Democrats aren’t laundering money through ActBlue without telling me the Democrats aren’t laundering money through ActBlue….. (table)

• @paulsperry

• NEW: The CBS "Face the Nation" anchor who edited Speaker Johnson's interview to help Kamala is married to a Democrat consultant who helped The Lincoln Project attack Trump in 2020, records show. (pic)

• @EricDaugh
  

• NBC ANALYST: By 20 points, Americans say the incumbent party's policies (Biden-Harris) are hurting their family... but when they think about Trump's administration, by a 13-point margin, voters say his policies HELPED their families. (video)

• @RealDrJaneRuby

• CONGRESS EXEMPTED THEMSELVES AND THEIR 3000 STAFFERS FROM ALL COVID SHOTS.

• @LibsOfTiktok

• Residents in Franklin County, PA are up in arms after learning that a local former school may be converted into migrant housing. PA residents are worried that the migrants will bring vioIent crime to their neighborhood like we’ve seen in many other communities across PA and the country. "If it goes into effect here, we'll see lawlessness. This will be a dangerous community. People will be fleeing because of the crime." Border czar Kamala Harris opened our border to unvetted migrants to invade towns across America at the expense of Americans' safety. (video)
• 2,000 Haitians were dropped into Charleroi, PA, a town of just 4,000 people. A Haitian guy attacked a girl on her way to school. Residents report a rise in crime and car accidents. Schools and services are overwhelmed. (video)
• This is the manager of an apartment complex in Aurora, CO. Venezualan gangs who took over the building beat him up when he refused their bribe. The gangs told the owner they need to share the rent income 50/50 or lose the building. (pic)

• @MikeBenzCyber

• “What makes someone who is the head of a pharmaceutical company qualified to get his next job as the head of the US military?” In this classic sub stream, I went over how the US medical establishment functions as a front for the US military establishment. (video)

• @TigTiegen

• COLORADO VOTERS: Remember the four Colorado Supreme Court Justices who tried to remove Trump from the ballot in the name of "democracy." We can remove them from office via the ballot box. Berkenkotter is on the ballot. VOTE NO on retaining Berkenkotter. - Richard Gabriel, - Melissa Hart, - William W. Hood III, and - Maria Berkenkotter.

• @AmericaPapaBear
  

• I am just going to say this. After watching Trump's interview with Bloomberg at the Chicago Economic Club, which Kamala declined to do I might add, Trump is a MASTERCLASS. He got a STANDING OVATION when it was over. (video)

• @amuse
  

• Democrat judge blocks hand count of ballots on Election Day in Georgia. The only count of ballots allowed in the state will be via Dominion Voting machines. (pic)
  

• @WarClandestine

• 60 Minutes are trying to normalize the idea that Pennsylvania will be delayed, and that voter fraud does not happen. The MSM are preemptively establishing the narrative that it might take days to count the mail-in ballots! THEY ARE GOING TO TRY IT AGAIN! (video)

• @robbystarbuck

• CNN admits that Trump is doing the best with Black voters of any Republican since the 60’s and it’s not just because of Black men. Their poll also shows that Kamala is winning less Black FEMALE voters than any Democrat since the 1960’s! (video)

• @TonySeruga

• Mystery drones swarmed high security Air Force base for 17 days but baffled Pentagon officials do not know where they are coming from or how to stop them. These are not Chinese spy balloons, it’s drones… Top Pentagon officials have been baffled by a swarm of mystery drones that flew over Langley Air Force base for 17 nights in a row. According to the Wall Street Journal, the phalanx of drones flew in a precise pattern over more than two weeks in December 2023 over the base in east Virginia, an area with one of the largest concentrations of national security and defense facilities on American soil.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.3 -.4 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 63.0 unch.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.43 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 60.0 +2.4%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.1 +.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.14%.

• S&P 500 futures -.14%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.15%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.