Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +11.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.7 +2.8
  
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 29.8% of Issues Advancing, 68.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .82 +13.9%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$174.4M
  
• 49 New 52-Week Highs, 43 New Lows
• 58.4% (-1.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 62.0 -1.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 64.6 +3.4%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 232.87 +.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,373.4 +1.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 62.0 (GREED) unch.
  
• 1-Day Vix 9.5 -8.5%
  
• Vix 19.2 -3.2%
  
• Total Put/Call .85 -13.3%

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• Wow. 6.5% of Nicaragua's entire population has entered the USA during the Biden-Harris administration. (graph)
• Pennsylvania voter registration data from last week just came in and Republican registrations exceeded Democrat by 85%!! GOP +36,507. DEM +19,774.
  

• @LauraLoomer

• ATTENTION MAGA. Please read this and pay very close attention to what I’m telling you that nobody else in the GOP or on the right wants to touch right now because they are too afraid of being called “divisive”. The Senate GOP leader election is set for November 13th, 8 days after the presidential election. Mitch McConnell announced today his plan to step down in November. He planned it this way because he’s trying to kneecap a 2nd Trump admin and he’s on track to be successful in derailing President Trump’s 2nd term. Anyone who says otherwise is lying to you.

• @CollinRugg
  

• NEW: Kamala Harris says black men need to vote for her because Donald Trump will take their guns and free speech away. You can't make this up. Shannon Sharpe: Blacks for Trump. They feel that Trump is better for the black community. Can you explain that? Harris: Right. That's the question... Trump will terminate their Constitutional rights. But the First Amendment [will be gone]. The Second Amendment. I'm in favor of the Second Amendment. I don't believe we should be taking anybody's guns away. (video)
• NEW: Woman starts praising God after Florida police save her from being r*ped by an illegal immigrant who applied for asylum just one day earlier. "Thank you Jesus!" the woman cried after officers tackled the suspect. The Florida woman reportedly called 911 while pretending to order pizza as a call for help. (video)@EricLDaugh

• BREAKING: Florida Senator Marco Rubio just issued the perfect response to the Puerto Rico joke at Trump's rally. "I understand why some people were offended by a comedians jokes last night. But those weren’t Trump’s words. They were jokes by an insult comic who offends virtually everyone, all the time….. because that is what insult comedians do." "What isn’t a joke is how Kamala Harris destroyed our economy and allowed dangerous criminals to illegally enter our country and terrorize, rape and murder Americans." "And what isn’t a joke and truly outrageous is how “journalists” are helping Kamala Harris’s with her dangerous campaign of hate by calling Trump the new Hitler and how MSNBC used old footage of Nazi rallies TO SMEAR TRUMP SUPPORTERS AS NAZIS!"
• BREAKING: GOP sounds alarm on "voter suppression" in Pennsylvania. "Voters are being turned away, given faulty information, and told their ballots will not be counted. This is nothing short of voter suppression." - RNC @ChairmanWhatley.
  

• @DC_Draino

• WOW! Democrat ballot harvesting org boss caught on tape saying Atlanta rigs elections. They pay people to illegally ballot harvest. They forge ballots. They bribe ballot counters & election officials. Atalanta Mayor stole the seat. He admits ALL of it on tape Will GA prosecute? (video)
• And there it is. Tim Walz and Eric Swalwell have something in common. They both dated Chinese spies.

• @MTGrepp

• BREAKING: NV Supreme Court ruled that ballots arriving 3 days after the Election will be counted. THIS IS HOW THEY WILL STEAL THE ELECTION. THEY SHOULD BE ASHAMED.

• @joma_gc

• In another setback for the Harris campaign just 7 days before the election, leftist publication USA Today’s editorial board has chosen NOT to endorse Kamala Harris. Leading up to the decision, Editor-in-chief Nicole Carroll was apprehensive about endorsing a “guaranteed loser.” This is the third major leftist publication to opt not to endorse a candidate this cycle.
• Jeff Bezos is doubling down. In a meeting this morning with leftist journalists threatening a walkout unless he reverses course and endorses Kamala Harris immediately, he told them they can “f-ck off”, and that WaPo will be hiring more Trump-friendly, conservative voices and they can pound sand.

• @TimRunsHisMouth
  

• This is my new favorite person. (video)

• @TaraBull808
  

• Elon Musk looks like he's nearly moved to tears as the crowd chants his name. This is incredible. We are witnessing history. Let's turn the Blue states Red!! (video)

• @Breaking911

• BREAKING: Drop-off ballot boxes set ablaze overnight in Oregon & Washington state, destroying unknown number of ballots.

• @GuntherEagleman

• DAY THREE: Kamala is continually getting scorched on stage! She’s at a church this morning and the crowd HATES her. Her campaign is in SHAMBLES!

• @EndWokeness
  

• AOC: I was almost rqped and kiIIed on January 6th in the Capitol building. Reality: She wasn't even there. (video)
  

• @MJTruthUltra
  

• Epiphany moment… The reason the left is pushing forward with this Hitler Narrative, as stupid as it is, is because they are trying justify their actions if/when Donald Trump wins.

• @WallStreetApes

• Nothings Changed, New Jersey Won’t Stop Rigging Their Elections. Last Election: New Jersey Election Worker ‘I’ll let you[Non-Citizen/Non-Registered Voter] fill out completely a ballot right now”. This Election: New Jersey Poll workers don’t check IDs and wear Kamala Harris shirts. (video)
• Kamala Harris is complicit in BlackRock Land Grabs. 1st Video) Tucker Carlson exposed Kamala Harris is owned by BlackRock. 2nd Video) Lahaina, Maui building permits not being issued (still even today only 91 have been issued). 3rd Video) Exposed: BlackRock owns Maui. Looks like BlackRock already had a massive interest in buying all the properties and land in Maui even before the fires, what an amazing “coincidence”. (video)
• This is not Texas. This is not Florida. This is Port Townsend, Washington. During the last election 70% of the vote went to Democrats. You are witnessing the American People waking up and taking back their country. (video)
• Attention American Voters, Kamala Harris is draining your Social Security Benefits by giving them to illegal migrants. Kamala Harris Admin Signed H.R. 7691 Qualifying Refugees From Ukraine TO CLAIM SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS. Social Security is expected to run out in 2035, if you vote Kamala Harris you are literally voting to have no income when you reach retirement age as most jobs in America no longer pay retirements. - They're not paying into the system. - They're not from this country. - They didn't help build this country. (video)

• @JackPosobiec

• BREAKING: JD Vance called out Fake Tapper for the lies he pushed about Russiagate earlier this morning. Tapper denied telling any lies. So here are 3.5 minutes of Jake Tapper spreading Russiagate conspiracy theory.

• @MichelleRM68

• "What's it like wearing a MAGA hat in NYC?" "Everything's changed. Now you get a lot of praise. You see a lot more love for Trump, especially in the Bronx & Harlem. THEY'RE FINALLY WAKING UP." (video)
  

• @BehizyTweets
  

• BREAKING: Trump just announced a genius new policy. "I will support a tax credit for family caregivers who take care of a parent or a loved one." Not only will this make things cheaper for families, but it will drastically improve customer service and reduce levels of neglect or abuse.
• BREAKING: Pennsylvania RNC official Val Biancaniello was just arrested at the polls in Delaware County after she told fellow voters to remain in line and not leave without voting. (video)
• BREAKING: Election officials in York County, Pennsylvania, are reporting that they also received THOUSANDS of potentially fraudulent voter registration forms and mail-in ballot applications from a third-party group. First Lancaster County, and now York County? WHAT IS GOING ON?
• BREAKING: The founder of Death Row Records, one of the most powerful labels in the music industry, just got on stage at the MSG rally to endorse Trump, thanking Trump for freeing him after 33 years in prison for a non-violent crime. "If it wasn't for Donald Trump, I wouldn't be standing here today. So I want to thank President Donald Trump for allowing me to stand in front of you here today." Michael ‘Harry-O’ Harris is now a prominent leader in his community fighting for poor people. Trump gives 2nd chances to those who deserve them, while Democrats give them to murderers and career criminals. (video)

• @shaneyyricch

• This video of Trump’s MSG entrance just got TAKEN DOWN on Facebook after amassing 150k views in 20 minutes. You know exactly what to do…

• @persianjewess

• Isn’t it wild that Jews can openly be Jewish at a Trump rally, while Jews at the DNC had to hide in private rooms for fear of being targeted, yet it’s Trump who’s accused of being antisemitic? (pic)

• @ScottPresler
  

• EVERY seat is filled at the rally in State College, PA. It’s a very real possibility that Trump wins the youth vote. Penn State University. (video)

• @WarClandestine

• WHOA! WaPo owner, Jeff Bezos, publishes his own piece, and admits that “Americans don’t trust the news media”! Bezos and WaPo are admitting defeat! “Our profession is now the least trusted of all. Something we are doing is clearly not working.” Link below! MUST READ!

• @DineshDSouza

• BREAKING! Dem Operative Caught In Undercover Video Explaining How They Allegedly Stole 2020 Election in GA: From Kicking Out GOP Poll Watchers to Nursing Home Ballot Harvesting to Identifying A Driver in 2000 Mules.

• thecjpearson

• EXCLUSIVE: 22 year old @Audreyjmcneal, who served as a GA delegate to the 2020 and 2024 DNC Convention, just endorsed @realDonaldTrump for President after attending her first Trump rally this past week in ATL. It’s not just black men abandoning Kamala Harris. Black women are too. (video)

• @_johnnymaga

• HOLY SMOKES. Kamala just whipped out a preacher, MLK-esque accent in a Philadelphia church. This is the craziest one yet. She is so unbelievably fake. (video)

• VernonForGA

• Fact check me if you are a Democrat! YES, THE GOVERNOR OF MICHIGAN USED TO WORK FOR GEORGE SOROS. YES, CALIF GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM IS NANCY PELOSI'S NEPHEW YES, ADAM SHIFF'S SISTER IS MARRIED TO ONE OF GEORGE SOROS’ SONS. YES, JOHN KERRY'S DAUGHTER IS MARRIED TO A MULLAH'S SON IN IRAN. YES, HILLARY'S DAUGHTER CHELSEA IS MARRIED TO GEORGE SOROS' NEPHEW. YES, ABC NEWS EXECUTIVE PRODUCER IAN CAMERON IS MARRIED TO SUSAN RICE, OBAMA'S FORMER NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER. YES, CBS PRESIDENT DAVID RHODES IS THE BROTHER OF BEN RHODES, OBAMA'S DEPUTY NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER FOR STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS. YES, ABC NEWS CORRESPONDENT CLAIRE SHIPMAN IS MARRIED TO JAY CARNEY, FORMER OBAMA WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY. YES, ABC NEWS AND UNIVISION REPORTER MATTHEW JAFFE IS MARRIED TO KATIE HOGAN, OBAMA'S FORMER DEPUTY PRESS SECRETARY YES, ABC PRESIDENT BEN SHERWOOD IS THE BROTHER OF ELIZABETH SHERWOOD, OBAMA'S FORMER SPECIAL ADVISER. YES, CNN VP VIRGINIA MOSELEY IS MARRIED TO TOM NIDES, FORMER HILLARY CLINTON'S DEPUTY SECRETARY. THIS IS WHAT YOU CALL A "STACKED DECK". IF YOU HAD A HUNCH THE NEWS MEDIA WAS SOMEWHAT RIGGED AND YOU COULDN'T PUT YOUR FINGER ON IT, THIS MIGHT HELP YOU SOLVE THE PUZZLE.

• @GardensR4Health

• The Appalachians are screwed and I’m ANGRY. This is just 1 of thousands headed into winter without a home. If they were illegal immigrants, they would have hotel rooms and debit cards. I will NEVER forget what is being done to Appalachian people by the current administration. (video)

• @AngelaH171717

• Interesting! Mike Benz says “Listen to Jamie Raskin, Jamie Raskin in Congress, has said “let people vote for Trump if they want, we’re not gonna certify the election anyways, so he may be elected but we are not going to let him be inaugurated.”” (video)

• @VigilantFox

• In 2014, 300 scientists warned Anthony Fauci would start a global pandemic. Following the high-profile escape of three bugs from U.S. labs, these 300 scientists sent a letter to President Obama, urging him to shut down Anthony Fauci's gain-of-function research. Obama issued a moratorium and shut down 18 of the worst projects by Anthony Fauci. In the end, he really didn't shut them down. Instead, Obama moved the research offshore to places like Ukraine, the former Soviet State of Georgia, and the Wuhan Institute of Virology in Wuhan, China. Now, it is widely accepted that COVID-19 originated from that very lab in Wuhan, China. A groundbreaking new film called "Thank you, Dr. Fauci" is exposing it all, revealing how Fauci's decisions ultimately led to a global disaster. (video) 
• Dr. Phil Just Risked It All With a Surprising Speech in Support of Donald Trump. He basically just called the Democratic Party a bunch of bullies because they ruin people's careers and shame them to oblivion if they dare support Donald Trump. Now, he's giving the bully party a big middle finger and throwing his support for Trump. (video)
• Jaw-Dropping Rogan-Trump Interview Crushes Kamala Harris Campaign. The full three-hour talk summarized in less than 10 minutes.
• This is a devastating clip for Democrats. Joe Rogan just concluded that the “only thing that makes sense” for why Dem politicians would oppose voter ID is because “they want to cheat.” Even the majority of everyday Democrats SUPPORT voter ID. A shocking new Gallup poll showed that 84% of Americans SUPPORT requiring photo ID to vote. This includes 67% of DEMOCRATS who support the measure. (video)

• @CharlieKirk11
  

• Here's Tucker Carlson's complete 9 minute speech from Madison Square Garden, and it's worth watching every second of it multiple times. (video)

• @LibsOfTikTok
  

• Lol MSNBC spoke to voters in Michigan and this voter basically blasted their propaganda efforts to their face: "I've heard so much about Trump being angry and he's a fascist and dictator, but problem is, when I listen to him, I don't hear any of that." (video)

• @MdBreathe
  

• They are calling for all babies to get 3 mRNA shots by the age of 9 months old. We have an enormous amount of data showing the shots don’t work and are all risk, no benefit - we just don’t have people in power willing to acknowledge it. (video)

• @TonySeruga

• GPS—a total of 98,678 mobile devices were at or in the immediate vicinity of Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally. Just under 20,000 were in the venue itself and the balance were outside watching. 47% had never attended a Trump rally. (video)

• @P_McCulloughMD

• WHO Agenda 2030 Aspires for 500 New Vaccines. Dr. McCullough with Emerald Robinson on what the public should know coming down the pike. Excessive vaccination with no concerns over product safety, compound or cumulative toxicity. (video)

• @Sassafrass_84

• This will give you chills. It's probably one of the best ads, Mr. President.  (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.0 -.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 63.5 -.25 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 102.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.2 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 63.2 +1.2%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.0 -%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.02%.

• S&P 500 futures +.01%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.10%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Trump Poll Surge, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Yen Weakness, Financial/Transport Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.2 -.03%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.60% -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.24%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.50 euros/megawatt-hour -2.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.6 +2.5 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -5.8 -1.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.1 -4.0 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(185 of 500 reporting) +3.4% +.6 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.31 +.06:  Growth Rate +15.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.7 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.64% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +37.1% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 370.75 +.79: Growth Rate +30.2% +.3 percentage point, P/E 31.9 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .73 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.13 +11.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 13.25 basis point (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +3.31% -12.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 44.6 -2.3 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% unch.: CPI YoY +2.57% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 69.2%(-5.4 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 45.9%(-5.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +150 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +34 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +111 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my biotech/tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -1.4% 2) Energy -1.2% 3) Shipping -.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• NEP, VKTX, SIBN, ANAB, HROW, TYRA and PHG
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) NU 2) CDNS 3) ON 4) SLNO 5) FYBR
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DNMR 2) APA 3) GEHC 4) GTLB 5) MRO
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLU 2) IYW 3) PAVE 4) GDX 5) XLV

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.7%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +4.0% 2) Alt Energy +3.8% 3) Regional Banks +2.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GLUE, EYPT, OKLO, LASR, PRCT, SERV, NBIS, SMR, IREN, JKS, DJT, CSIQ, HUT, DQ, PRTA, VERA, DOYU, NNE, MNSO, CLSK, NN, AAON, XPEV, SDA, MARA, RIOT, FVRR, ASTL, BOH, MSTR, LEU, JSPR, EH, GEO, LOVE, GME, IONQ, TBBK, MXL, LC, BE, SEDG, CORZ, IBN, PHAT, CCL, CUK, FIX, MMM, OFG, SKYT, CSTM, CFR, BIDU, COIN, NGVT, FRME, SKX, ICLR, CROX, NTNX, BBAR, GPC, WEN, AAL, FHI, OSK, RIVN, BYD, SHAK, LOGI, WSBC, TPX, HRMY, HTLF, GBCI, RUN, LOAR, AUB, CRMD, YUMC and CRSP
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GPC 2) CYH 3) FOLD 4) ZI 5) JETS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DJT 2) VERA 3) NWL 4) TOMZ 5) WSBC
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLK 3) XBI 4) XLY 5) IXC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AMT)/2.57
• (AWI)/1.75
• (CMCSA)/1.06
• (GLW)/.53
• (DHI)/4.17
• (EXP)/4.67
• (HEES)/1.00
• (HUBB)/4.46
• (ITT)/1.43
• (JBLU)/-.21
• (LDOS)/2.01
• (MCD)/3.21
• (PYPL)/1.07
• (PFE)/.61
• (PSX)/1.66
• (RCL)/5.03
• (SWK)/1.05
• (SYY)/1.13
• (THC)/2.35
  

After the Close: 

• (AMD)/.92
• (GOOG)/1.84
• (BXP)/1.80
• (CZR)/.21
• (CAKE)/.48
• (CMG)/.25
• (CB)/4.98
• (EA)/2.02
• (FSLR)/3.11
• (FE)/.90
• (LSTR)/1.45
• (MOD)/.92
• (MDLZ)/.85
• (RDDT)/-.08
• (SAGE)/-1.54
• (SNAP)/-.14
• (SYK)/2.77
• (V)/2.58
• (WERN)/.21
• (CROX)/3.10
• (MYGN)/.02
• (PAG)/3.41
• (RGEN)/.33
• (SMCI)/.73
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in Aug.
• Advance Goods Trade Balance for Sept. is estimated at -$95.9B versus -$94.3B in Aug.
• Retail Inventories MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.5% gain in Aug.
  

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in July.
• The S&P Corelogic CS 20-City MoM SA for Aug. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.27% gain in July.
  

 10:00 am EST

• JOLTS Job Openings for Sept. is estimated to fall to 8000K versus 8040K in Aug.
• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Oct. is estimated to rise to 99.5 versus 98.7 in Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 7Y T-Note auction, Dallas Fed Services Revenue Index for Oct., Texas Services Sector Outlook for Oct., Atlanta Fed GDP Now update, weekly US retail sales reports and the API weekly crude oil stock report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST